A Hypothetical built on Optimism

[YoHoChecko]

Ok, this maybe doesn't need a new thread because it's the same basic topics, but I wanted to set aside a space for a low-probability outcome that I've been thinking through a bunch.

Let's say Rodgers sits out. The team plays hardball-ish (really just smartball), and decides to hold his rights until after the season for the sake of cap ramifications and clarity on the draft picks in return. We've discussed this plenty in other threads, so that's not the topic for debate I'd like to discuss. Let's assume this as a GIVEN in this hypothetical.

So now we enter the season. Love has been the QB1 throughout the offseason and looks... fine. Good, but not the driving force of success.

But our TEAM is good, it turns out. The talking heads were mostly wrong, and the "Packers without Aaron Rodgers" do, in fact, look to be a potential playoff team.

Let's say the team is 5-3 through week 8. They now have a "mini-bye" after their Thursday night game against the Cardinals. Aaron Rodgers has decided that he wants to return. He accepts some sort of concession the team has offered to him, and decides to report.

The trade deadline is week 9.

So now, do you bring Rodgers back and prep him for the heavyweight matchup with the Chiefs and Mahomes ten days away? Or do you trade him because we're winning with Love, even if not because of Love?

[YoHoChecko]

Personally? I say "welcome back. Let's address this head-on in the locker room, have a quick meeting about it, and get to work trying to win a Super Bowl.

But I understand it could be complicated.

[Gunzaan]

In your hypothetical, the team is 5-3 so I say trade him.

I would probably have a different answer if the record was 3-5 or 7-1, etc.

[YoHoChecko]

I would probably have a different answer if the record was 3-5 or 7-1, etc.

Yeah, at 7-1 I might trade. At 3-5 you obviously take Rodgers. I tried to split the difference with a record that's, like, contending for but not guaranteed to be a playoff team. I think with Rodgers we compete for a Super Bowl this year, regardless of when he shows up. Without Rodgers, we compete for a playoff spot this year.

I will say if Love plays 8 games and looks ok, taking Rodgers back mid-season probably should NOT involve giving him more, longer guarantees. Unless he plays just well enough to get us a 1st round pick+ back in a trade, which in my hypothetical seems slightly unlikely, but possible. But these questions would all be more about 2022, and I'm trying to ask about 2021, so I'm sort of on a tangent here.

[Yoop]

Personally? I say "welcome back. Let's address this head-on in the locker room, have a quick meeting about it, and get to work trying to win a Super Bowl.

this will always be my opinion till I see that we've traded him

[TheSkeptic]

There are other considerations. After the season not having AR's salary might result in a great FA signing like Z or Amos. 2 extra 1st round draft picks and probably a 2nd or 3rd are a big deal.

If the Packers are 1-7 then it is likely the Packers will be going into the daft with a top 5 pick plus the 1st and more from the team where AR goes too. That probably means the best Dlineman in the draft. Or ILB. And who knows, if AR goes to a 3-5 team and immediately gets in a power struggle with the HC that team winds up going 4-12 the Packers could wind up with two top 5 picks.

If they are 5-3 and a playoff team with Love, imagine how good they will be a year later with a mature Love plus a FA plus an extra mid-first-round pick.

[Acrobat]

For me it would depend on what kind of 5-3 we are. Are we looking really good and lost a couple of heartbreakers? Or are there some major glaring red flags with this team? Great example, 2008. We knew that the team kind of stunk midway through the season but we also knew that it wasn't because of Rodgers. So if Love looks good enough and possibly and ascending player to the point where there's a good understanding that he's our long term solution at QB, there's no way you let Rodgers come back. You trade him right away and get a bunch of picks, and even possibly a player that can immediately address a hole in the roster. And you don't look back.

[Acrobat]

There are other considerations. After the season not having AR's salary might result in a great FA signing like Z or Amos. 2 extra 1st round draft picks and probably a 2nd or 3rd are a big deal.

If the Packers are 1-7 then it is likely the Packers will be going into the daft with a top 5 pick plus the 1st and more from the team where AR goes too. That probably means the best Dlineman in the draft. Or ILB. And who knows, if AR goes to a 3-5 team and immediately gets in a power struggle with the HC that team winds up going 4-12 the Packers could wind up with two top 5 picks.

If they are 5-3 and a playoff team with Love, imagine how good they will be a year later with a mature Love plus a FA plus an extra mid-first-round pick.

Pretty much what I just said too. If the Packers could start 5-3 without Rodgers, you absolutely do not let him back because you are sitting on a goldmine with a QB on a rookie salary for 3 more years, a bunch of picks and some nice cap room coming back at you. Talk about the window quickly reopening.

[BF004]

It would absolutely have to depend.

If Bortles is playing, then duh. Rodgers.

If Love is playing, few options depending on how he is doing.

If he is struggling and the team is .500 or better, then duh again, Rodgers.

If Love is playing great by the team is blowing it, like 2-6, similar to Rodgers first, maybe consider trading Rodgers.

If the team sucks and Love sucks, prolly Rodgers and just make a 4-5 year committment to him on the spot.

Love and team both doing really good, prolly gotta look at trading Rodgers.

[YoHoChecko]

Ok, so like...

The team is 5-3

Love is the QB; he has thrown 13 TDs and 6 INTs including a 3-pick stinker against Pittsburgh in a game we probably should have won. He's completing 63.5% of his passes and averaging around 200 yards per game. He's also rushed for 2 TDs.

The offense is 14th in the league. We have the third-highest run% in the league

The defense is 8th in the league. We're 5th in takeaways.

[Acrobat]

Ok, so like...

The team is 5-3

Love is the QB; he has thrown 13 TDs and 6 INTs including a 3-pick stinker against Pittsburgh in a game we probably should have won. He's completing 63.5% of his passes and averaging around 200 yards per game. He's also rushed for 2 TDs.

The offense is 14th in the league. We have the third-highest run% in the league

The defense is 8th in the league. We're 5th in takeaways.

Yeah I think even within, those stats, it would depend on the story behind the stats:

- Is he grasping the offense?
- Does it appear that he's able to read defenses at a pro level?
- Is he staying healthy and showing the toughness to work through little nicks?
- How is his preparation and focus during the week?

[Crazylegs Starks]

If Love looks okay-to-good, and the team is good, go ahead and trade Rodgers. I mean, to be blunt about it, if Rodgers couldn't get a ring last year...

[YoHoChecko]

Ok, so like...

The team is 5-3

Love is the QB; he has thrown 13 TDs and 6 INTs including a 3-pick stinker against Pittsburgh in a game we probably should have won. He's completing 63.5% of his passes and averaging around 200 yards per game. He's also rushed for 2 TDs.

The offense is 14th in the league. We have the third-highest run% in the league

The defense is 8th in the league. We're 5th in takeaways.

Yeah I think even within, those stats, it would depend on the story behind the stats:

- Is he grasping the offense?
- Does it appear that he's able to read defenses at a pro level?
- Is he staying healthy and showing the toughness to work through little nicks?
- How is his preparation and focus during the week?

Exactly; I made these stats as neutral and difficult to gauge as humanly possible. Same with the overall scenario. Because it's too early to know. Even watching it, this board would constantly be having arguments over whether or not it looks like he gets it or if he has "it" or whether or not these are acceptable growing pains or signs of a low ceiling.

Personally, I'm quite proud of myself for expertly crafting the most neutral scenario through which to judge the situation as imaginable.

[go pak go]

Ok, so like...

The team is 5-3

Love is the QB; he has thrown 13 TDs and 6 INTs including a 3-pick stinker against Pittsburgh in a game we probably should have won. He's completing 63.5% of his passes and averaging around 200 yards per game. He's also rushed for 2 TDs.

The offense is 14th in the league. We have the third-highest run% in the league

The defense is 8th in the league. We're 5th in takeaways.

Welcome back Rodgers. Get us a Lombardi.

And then we are trading you after you win the SB. Go 1998 Bulls Michael Jordan us.

This would be a very good situation for the GB Packers outside of the sentimental fans losing their mind we traded away our SB winning QB.

[go pak go]

As a baromter:

Aaron Rodgers 2008 stats:

252 yards per game
63.6% Completion %
28 TDs
13 INTs
93.8 Quarterback Rating

[go pak go]

If Love looks okay-to-good, and the team is good, go ahead and trade Rodgers. I mean, to be blunt about it, if Rodgers couldn't get a ring last year...

but...but...but...held back!!!!

[lupedafiasco]

If he doesnt play you have no choice but to trade him IMO.

[go pak go]

I will say if Love plays 8 games and looks ok, taking Rodgers back mid-season probably should NOT involve giving him more, longer guarantees. Unless he plays just well enough to get us a 1st round pick+ back in a trade, which in my hypothetical seems slightly unlikely, but possible. But these questions would all be more about 2022, and I'm trying to ask about 2021, so I'm sort of on a tangent here.

Absolutely not giving Rodgers anything more. I think we are honestly screwed if we do give Rodgers more anyway because the Packers are going to suck in 2022 and beyond.

The cap will be NO MORE than 208 million dollars in 2022 based on the latest agreement. it could be less.

The 2022 Packers currently have $237 million on the cap. Keep in mind we have already deferred almost everyone. We will have Alexander to sign in 2023 AND Davante Adams is not under contract in 2022.

So we are going to have to shave over $30 million, sign players just to have a roster, and have two significant FA decisions to make with Alexander and Adams. The more I think about it, the more I don't think Rodgers can be a Packer after this year. It just doesn't make sense.

[NCF]

It would absolutely have to depend.

If Bortles is playing, then duh. Rodgers.

If Love is playing, few options depending on how he is doing.

If he is struggling and the team is .500 or better, then duh again, Rodgers.

If Love is playing great by the team is blowing it, like 2-6, similar to Rodgers first, maybe consider trading Rodgers.

If the team sucks and Love sucks, prolly Rodgers and just make a 4-5 year committment to him on the spot.

Love and team both doing really good, prolly gotta look at trading Rodgers.

I think yes, this, but there is a lot of gray area in there for me that I would probably handicap it 90% roll with Love. He would really have to stink the joint up to essentially pull the plug based on 8 games. Is there any precedent with this? I suppose there were holdouts in the 80's and 90's, right, but what is a recent example of this? To me, this would be going full turd and then there is no way I can invite that guy back to lead this team.

[go pak go]

It would absolutely have to depend.

If Bortles is playing, then duh. Rodgers.

If Love is playing, few options depending on how he is doing.

If he is struggling and the team is .500 or better, then duh again, Rodgers.

If Love is playing great by the team is blowing it, like 2-6, similar to Rodgers first, maybe consider trading Rodgers.

If the team sucks and Love sucks, prolly Rodgers and just make a 4-5 year committment to him on the spot.

Love and team both doing really good, prolly gotta look at trading Rodgers.

I think yes, this, but there is a lot of gray area in there for me that I would probably handicap it 90% roll with Love. He would really have to stink the joint up to essentially pull the plug based on 8 games. Is there any precedent with this? I suppose there were holdouts in the 80's and 90's, right, but what is a recent example of this? To me, this would be going full turd and then there is no way I can invite that guy back to lead this team.

Didn't think kind of happen with the 2017/2018 Eagles with Foles being amazing whenever he started and Carson not being as good in 2018 and beyond?