Packers Huddle

So, is the real estate market going to crash in the next couple months?

I would think not. It will go down, but it is not nearly as volatile as the stock market.

Yes. Mortgage origination is already crashing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/mortgag ... calls.html

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolom ... ssion=true

We haven't got consumer credit or mortgage deliquincy numbers yet either (should be astronomical like the jobless claims) , next month should be more revealing.

I think it would for sure 100% crash if not for some never before seen funny money tactics. Kind of like up until 2008, if you were trying to analyze the market, you would have never factored in a taxpayer-funded trillion dollar bailout being enacted to prop up a failing company. But that's just what the government ended up doing.

Real estate was already in a bit of a bubble and now it should go topsy turvy, but it still might not because who knows what the government will decree.

Anyways, I'm going to snatch up some land if it crashes and I can find some good deals.

Tough to make any prediction on anything right now due to this unprecedented situation. The government could supplement lenders for allowing mortgage payments to be put on hold and in 6 months this was a bad dream. It could not and some lenders go under. We could be looking at some long term unemployment issues in which case defaults will undoubtedly go up. OR we could be looking a what amounts to unprecedented "seasonal" unemployment like case and by fall everything is close to normal.

Yeah, totally depends. Market mostly already considering all possibilities, weighted by likelihood.

The only certainty is that it is likely to go up or go down a lot.

If COVID is mostly a done issue by the end of May, the economy is still primed and will likely rebound very hard very fast, you'll have wished you'd have invested in the land around now as this will likely be the bottom of the dip.

If this drags and or God forbids gets much worse, or there is that 2nd wave this fall/winter, everything likely to drop a lot more yet and you would be a lot better waiting to invest your money in anything other than short term bonds or gold or silver.


If you know the answer, let me know.

I'm probably not going to do anything with land yet, unless I can find some smokin deals right now, which will be unrelated to the coronavirus most likely. I probably will stick some cash into stocks, I called one of my financially-literate friends to get an overview of how stuff works (it has been about 10 years since I last looked into anything market-related for more than 5 minutes), and he told me to put some money into SPDN until the S&P hits 1800ish and then dump that same money into VOO.

Looking to move, I am semi rural and have 20 acres within an hour of downtown Minneapolis. Not a lot of parcels that size available so it will sell at a premium. I plan on moving further out, going to pounce on an under priced place on a lake. Sorry not sorry I am taking advantage of the situation.

https://www.ft.com/content/575e818e-c35 ... 784163f604

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the government-controlled companies that guarantee nearly half of US mortgages, could require their second bailout in just over a decade if the US economy remains in a lockdown for several months, their regulator has warned.

The two groups, which collectively underpin the $10tn US housing market, have sufficient resources to last through a lockdown of about 12 weeks, but would then need funds from Congress or the Federal Reserve, said Mark Calabria, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency.

Who could have possibly foreseen the same thing would happen again?

https://www.ai-cio.com/news/30-home-mor ... dys-warns/

As many as 30% of Americans with home loans, or some 15 million households, could default if the nation’s economy remains closed up through the summer, he estimates.

While mortgage interest rates have been low for some time—the average 30-year loan charges 3.8%, Bankrate says—job losses can overwhelm the ability of many to service their debt, Zandi wrote in a report. “Millions more job losses are likely in coming weeks as additional shutdowns occur across the country,” he said.

According to Avail, an online rental platform for landlords, there are about 8 million small-time landlords managing somewhere between one and 10 properties. That accounts for roughly half of the nation’s rentals.

What’s more, Avail’s data shows that over half of these mom-and-pop landlords’ tenants had already lost their jobs in March. A third of those jobless renters said they were planning to stop paying rent.

The Moody’s scenario of 30% defaults translates to 15 million households missing payments. As of 2015, 22.5 million rental properties were owned by mom-and-pop landlords. A mass failure among small-time landlords easily accounts for at least half of that prediction.

Put an offer on a place this morning. Here we go.

Carl Gerbschmidt wrote: ↑

13 Apr 2020 12:50

Put an offer on a place this morning. Here we go.

Good luck!

Carl Gerbschmidt wrote: ↑

13 Apr 2020 12:50

Put an offer on a place this morning. Here we go.

Nice

So the counter offer was full price, said see ya. By June or July he will take my offer.

Carl Gerbschmidt wrote: ↑

14 Apr 2020 17:40

So the counter offer was full price, said see ya. By June or July he will take my offer.

Haha yeah no reason to pay full price right now

texas wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2020 04:37

Carl Gerbschmidt wrote: ↑

14 Apr 2020 17:40

So the counter offer was full price, said see ya. By June or July he will take my offer.

Haha yeah no reason to pay full price right now

I haven't seen anyone pay full price. Not in the last few months.

It is interesting we really like the place but there were a few sacrifices as far as $ to do remodel some things inside and replace a deck. Lead us to look at another place that does not require any upgrades inside the house but does not have a garage. More $ but more land and privacy and I know it is hypocritical but I want to live on a lake and have privacy.

Raptorman wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2020 09:22

texas wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2020 04:37

Carl Gerbschmidt wrote: ↑

14 Apr 2020 17:40

So the counter offer was full price, said see ya. By June or July he will take my offer.

Haha yeah no reason to pay full price right now

I haven't seen anyone pay full price. Not in the last few months.

As they shouldn't. And the deals are only going to get better and better.

Frustrating, looked at an absolute stunning log home today it has everything beautiful kitchen and the island my wife desires. Bar in the walk out basement 4 bedrooms 2 full baths large deck with beautiful views and privacy. Problem is there are stairs to the dock, many, many stairs. There is also and ATV trail down to the dock but far from ideal. Probably the biggest issue is that there is no garage, sure I could buy a menards kit and have it built but it would be right up against the house and it would require digging a bank out, landscaping that and the well would still be behind the garage.Plus a crap load of debris on the property the driveway would need widening. The search goes on.

Do not want to tempt fate but we found "the" place today putting a full asking price offer. I fished that lake last summer and told my daughter I could live on this lake in that place, and now it is for sale. Making a contingency offer but bridge loan if our listing goes beyond 30 days. Will be on the lake for the 4th of July. Hope I do not have 2 house payments in August.

Ain't gonna lie to y'all, ever since I first saw this thread, I've been resisting the urge.

But I can't help it.

It's too strong.

It's free real estate!