Packers Huddle

Haven't seen this talked about, but it could get MUCH worse than keeping AR or trading AR. There's a real nightmare scenario that could happen:

AR retires.

and

Bak retires.

!Ay ay ay! We'd be SO screwed.

AR retiring would mean an almost 27M dead cap hit for no compensation. If Bak's injury turns out bad enough that he can't go on, that's another 26M in dead cap for no compensation. 53M dead cap total.

This would mean no chance to get under cap to tag Adams, so that would lead to losing him in UFA for only a comp pick.

We'd be in a rotten position to re-sign our own, and would have to go into a rebuilding year without any extra resources.

Let's just say, I'd happily welcome AR and Bak back vs this scenario..

Am I missing something? I haven't seen anything about Bak retiring. He's talked about being excited to play next year and that he'll be ready.

I get people still think his knee is an unknown, but I just don't get that vibe.

paco wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 08:41

Am I missing something? I haven't seen anything about Bak retiring. He's talked about being excited to play next year and that he'll be ready.

I get people still think his knee is an unknown, but I just don't get that vibe.

Yeah, I don't buy one ounce of the Bak super-fear stuff. He's going to be fine. He was an elite LT in one half of action on essentially one leg. I've had excess fluid in my knee before. Time is what is needed to fix that issue. Now he has it.

paco wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 08:41

Am I missing something? I haven't seen anything about Bak retiring. He's talked about being excited to play next year and that he'll be ready.

I get people still think his knee is an unknown, but I just don't get that vibe.

No, it's not a likely scenario. But it's not out of the realm of possibility. OL tend to need consistantly healthy knees, the recovery hasn't gone according to plan so far, and AR is a complicated fella.

I personally don't think AR is retiring and neither is Bak unless health forces the issue. Rodgers has good years left and leverage. OL aren't as dependent on their QBs as, say, receivers are, and tend to form their own band of brothers within the team.

Yeah I agree with Sal. It is a possibility and it would be an absolute nightmare situation.

My guess on Bakh is he won't retire now, but there is a possibility his knee never recovers and he is forced to essentially retire or be on the PUP list in 2022 and just never plays until the inevitable shows itself.

Timing of news would be different, in fact worse because we are counting on him filling that spot but it's absolutely a possibility. Hopefully small but it is there. And it would be very bad for us.

There are consequences of using the signing bonus and these are the big ones compared to the "pay as they play" model.

As for the cap hit ramifications on Bakhtiari, we could get back at least $12 million of his signing bonus, if not $18 million. That would put his dead cap somewhere between $8 and $14 million.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 09:59

As for the cap hit ramifications on Bakhtiari, we could get back at least $12 million of his signing bonus, if not $18 million. That would put his dead cap somewhere between $8 and $12 million.

I was going to mention the intricacies of this. Are you sure? Do we know what was guaranteed for injury vs skill? I would expect to be able to recover a portion, regardless, as you have laid out.

NCF wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 10:01

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 09:59

As for the cap hit ramifications on Bakhtiari, we could get back at least $12 million of his signing bonus, if not $18 million. That would put his dead cap somewhere between $8 and $12 million.

I was going to mention the intricacies of this. Are you sure? Do we know what was guaranteed for injury vs skill? I would expect to be able to recover a portion, regardless, as you have laid out.

Apparently it is all the same, skill decline, injury, or choice. Bakhtiari also had a roster bonus due on the 18th of March for $9,435,308.

The only thing I can't find agreement on is if the recuperated money would count towards the 2022 cap or 2023 cap, some disagreement there.

I was actually imaging something similar, but worse: he retires after we move forward under the assumption that Rodgers is back and we have gone all-in again.

What do you do in THAT scenario – see what you have in Love, knowing the championship roster will probably go to waste, or do you try to find a Nick Foles that can take you the distance?

Labrev wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 10:31

I was actually imaging something similar, but worse: he retires after we move forward under the assumption that Rodgers is back and we have gone all-in again.

What do you do in THAT scenario – see what you have in Love, knowing the championship roster will probably go to waste, or do you try to find a Nick Foles that can take you the distance?

I go find my Foles, but no way does that guy play ahead of Love until it is painfully obvious that the team is there and QB is the issue.

There is something much worse that Rodgers retiring. And that is keeping him and seeing a serious decline. It is entirely possible, he is at that age and he is going to lose his best (and maybe MVS too) receiver. His 2nd best target was Tonyan who will be coming off his own injury problem. Rodgers has played well without Adams but now we are talking about an entire season, not just a regular season game or 2.

Now you have 3 problems. Rodgers is playing like crap, he is getting big bucks and Love is not getting any experience.

As for Bakh, I think he will be just fine assuming that he does not have another major injury.

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 11:16

There is something much worse that Rodgers retiring. And that is keeping him and seeing a serious decline. It is entirely possible, he is at that age and he is going to lose his best (and maybe MVS too) receiver. His 2nd best target was Tonyan who will be coming off his own injury problem. Rodgers has played well without Adams but now we are talking about an entire season, not just a regular season game or 2.

Now you have 3 problems. Rodgers is playing like crap, he is getting big bucks and Love is not getting any experience.

As for Bakh, I think he will be just fine assuming that he does not have another major injury.

A true nightmare situation would be to have a GM who could add zero players to the roster, like you're assuming.

2022 season Gold Package games being versus the Rams, Cowboys and Titans would be a nightmare scenario as well. Green Package would be stuck with both NY teams, Patriots, and the entire NFC North.

salmar80 wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 12:11

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 11:16

There is something much worse that Rodgers retiring. And that is keeping him and seeing a serious decline. It is entirely possible, he is at that age and he is going to lose his best (and maybe MVS too) receiver. His 2nd best target was Tonyan who will be coming off his own injury problem. Rodgers has played well without Adams but now we are talking about an entire season, not just a regular season game or 2.

Now you have 3 problems. Rodgers is playing like crap, he is getting big bucks and Love is not getting any experience.

As for Bakh, I think he will be just fine assuming that he does not have another major injury.

A true nightmare situation would be to have a GM who could add zero players to the roster, like you're assuming.

Nope, I am assuming that the Packers do not add anyone as good as Adams is or Tonyan was. Personally I think it is unlikely that they find another Adams. Tonyan might get resigned, or not. Tonyan might be 100% of what he was, or not.

If Rodgers retires it is likely a rebuild anyway so doesn't really matter.

bud fox wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 20:20

If Rodgers retires it is likely a rebuild anyway so doesn't really matter.

Oh yes it does matter. Just not this year. The world and time does not end if Rodgers does not play in GB this year.

bud fox wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 20:20

If Rodgers retires it is likely a rebuild anyway so doesn't really matter.

rebuild what though? this defense is solid, keep it together with the money we save from Rodgers and Adams, so the rebuild would basically be the WR position, and that can happen using a first and 2nd rounder on the two best receivers we can pick, ya don't need the best receiver in the league to win, or the best QB, and the two we have Rodgers and Adams have decided to bankrupt the team, send both packing, and concentrate on winning without them.

Yoop wrote: ↑

23 Feb 2022 08:11

bud fox wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 20:20

If Rodgers retires it is likely a rebuild anyway so doesn't really matter.

rebuild what though? this defense is solid, keep it together with the money we save from Rodgers and Adams, so the rebuild would basically be the WR position, and that can happen using a first and 2nd rounder on the two best receivers we can pick, ya don't need the best receiver in the league to win, or the best QB, and the two we have Rodgers and Adams have decided to bankrupt the team, send both packing, and concentrate on winning without them.

Thr offense is an unknown without Rodgers. It could be like the chiefs game and we just don't score points any more.

bud fox wrote: ↑

24 Feb 2022 14:07

Yoop wrote: ↑

23 Feb 2022 08:11

bud fox wrote: ↑

22 Feb 2022 20:20

If Rodgers retires it is likely a rebuild anyway so doesn't really matter.

rebuild what though? this defense is solid, keep it together with the money we save from Rodgers and Adams, so the rebuild would basically be the WR position, and that can happen using a first and 2nd rounder on the two best receivers we can pick, ya don't need the best receiver in the league to win, or the best QB, and the two we have Rodgers and Adams have decided to bankrupt the team, send both packing, and concentrate on winning without them.

Thr offense is an unknown without Rodgers. It could be like the chiefs game and we just don't score points any more.

And the 49ers game.

couldn't they restructure Rodgers and then he announces his retirement after June 1st? Wouldn't that stretch out the dead money over a couple of years where the cap is higher?