Grading the 2021 NFL Draft

[lupedafiasco]

They say it takes 3 years to grade a draft class...

Eric Stokes: D
I killed this pick almost immediately after we made it. In my opinion I felt like he not only wasnt the best CB available but he wasnt even the best CB available from his school. I felt Tyson Campbell who the Jaguars took shortly afterward was a much more technically refined played in coverage and quite frankly did everything a bit better than Stokes. Unfortunately I felt Stokes suffered the same fate as Kevin King who was my comparison for Stokes. He was a guy that should have been drafted late 2nd/early 3rd but because he had size and could run fast he was taken significantly earlier than a player with his skillset should have gone. All of his college issues never improved at the NFL level. He cant find the ball, has some really bad footwork, and I dont particularly think he tackles all that well either. Even when fans were touting his rookie year I said it was a good year for a rookie but not that great a year for a CB in general. Sure enough his sophomore season he was awful and hes been injured ever since. The King comparison couldnt have been more spot on.

Josh Myers: C-
I think Myers does take a bit more crap than he deserves sometimes. He is a really good pass protector its just so hard to watch him in the run game. When he whiffs he whiffs so badly it kills the play. You cant do that in the run game being right in the middle of the field. What makes the pick worse was taking him one pick in front of Creed Humphrey who was my guy at center. I felt everything about Humphrey was better than Myers although it was close in every category. 3 years in I was clearly wrong. Everything about Humphreys game is significantly better than Myers game. I think he may be playing his best ball as the Packers brass stated but thats not saying much. It appears he is going to play out his rookie deal and be let walk. I cant imagine the Packers rewarding his mediocrity in the run game but I dont think he will be replaced this season.

Amari Rodgers: F
At the time of this pick I just didnt get it and in my time scouting its the only time I tried to change my tune after a pick was made and tried really getting into it. That will be a last for me. My initial thoughts on Rodgers was he was small and slow so what did he have to lean on? The Packers clearly had plans for him to be some type of Gadget weapon but he didnt have the physical tools to do that. What makes matters worse and its the theme of this draft class but you had a star waiting for you in my opinion that was the obvious correct decision and that was Amon Ra St Brown. I knew that kids would be a star and compared him to Davante Adams in that his route running was just very strong for such a young player. Rodgers didnt excel anywhere. He wasnt a good receiver, didnt do well as a gadget player, and surely couldnt return kicks. What makes it probably one of the all time bad picks by Gutenbumst is that we even traded up for it.

Royce Newman: D-
This was one of the last picks in the 4th round so I dont want to make it a straight up F. Newman has regressed every year in the league and should be an easy cut candidate this offseason saving the team $1M. He came in and looked like a potential future starting guard but the only thing he developed was a unique ability to be a turnstile. Still a late pick essentially in the 5th round was what could be a decent 4th string OG.

TJ Slaton: B+
I almost find this to be a slam dunk pick for Gutenbumst. Though he isnt a star by any means or even starting quality he is a good rotational player that sometimes gets streaky and makes plays. For a IDL this big to be a rotational player and get him in the 5th round I think thats a big hit. The only way this ends up an A if he was to truly be the pass rushing force on passing downs and not in such a heavy rotation at the position.

Shemar Jean Charles: F
I actually really like SJC. He was a productive DB in college but ultimately he lacked size and athleticism to be anything at the pro level. On top of never developing at DB he sucked on STs too. He only made it 2 seasons with us before being cut and that warrants an F for me.

Cole Van Lanen: D-
I didnt hate this pick either. I thought there was upside here for CVL. Ultimately he was traded and netted us a 7th round pick so a loss on investment but at least he wasnt cut for nothing. Hes been a pretty bad player so far for Jax and his time was so short I dont think theres much more to say than that.

Isaiah McDuffie: A
I loved this pick. I thought McDuffie had starting potential from the get go. Hes going to always struggle in coverage and isnt the most athletic player but he has instincts and plays hard. He actually has a LBs mentality and last season looked better than Campbell. I think in base next season he is a starter and might even possibly push for nickel snaps on early downs.

Kylin Hill: D-
If Hill wasnt such a turd I think he probably sticks around and plays a pretty good role on this team, especially if he was here this past season. I think Hill is a pretty good RB but he did not like getting little opportunities to play and clashed with coaches. Seemed like that followed him as he ended up out of the league shortly after leaving us. All in all its not a bad pick in the 7th round to take a flyer on a highly athletic RB with a stinky attitude and see if he can change his ways but it never happened.


Overall: D
I think this draft class overall is just a D. Where we did hit we just got at less the premier positions and even then they have been rotational or backup players. When I look at this class I dont see a single player that we truly need to resign. I think this draft class had most to do with why we struggled so hard in 2022 and why things were so rough to start 2023 on offense. All the offensive players selected in this class are guys you probably dont want starting. Where we spent our best capital we missed badly and to add insult to injury players at the same positions went on to be pro bowl and all pro caliber players almost immediately. This could have been a draft class for the ages and sparked a dynasty but that we will save for next years Grading the Draft.

[BF004]

Awful draft overall, one of the worst I can remember.

Just scroll through for a while.

After pick 13 (top 13 including Ja'Marr Chase, Waddle, Sewell, Surtain, Parson and Slater). Pretty common for a top 13. It is just trash after that from 14 on.

Would love to see it quantified somehow, should probably wait till after 4 years to really gauge it all, assign metrics or whatever, but I have a feeling 2021 is one of the worst drafts overall this century.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_NFL_draft

[Pckfn23]

[mention]BF004[/mention] Approximate Value in first 3 years.
2021 - https://stathead.com/tiny/OZlR1
2020 - https://stathead.com/tiny/TWWQk
2019 - https://stathead.com/tiny/9KNqX
2018 - https://stathead.com/tiny/oSHvF
2017 - https://stathead.com/tiny/FZ1gV

[BF004]

@BF004 Approximate Value in first 3 years.
2021 - https://stathead.com/tiny/OZlR1
2020 - https://stathead.com/tiny/TWWQk
2019 - https://stathead.com/tiny/9KNqX
2018 - https://stathead.com/tiny/oSHvF
2017 - https://stathead.com/tiny/FZ1gV

Neat!

Easy way to sum all the AV’s?


Would still wanna wait 4 years. Guy named Jordan Love comes to mind.

[APB]

I ran down the picks list all the way through R7. I'm not sure I've ever seen a less impressive overall class of drafted players top to bottom. Just very few studs and only a handful of notably good players.

I'm guessing the Packer fanbase isn't the only fanbase bemoaning the terrible performance by their GM that year. Yeah, Gute had some misses, most notably Myers over Humphrey, but the pickings were also pretty slim.

[Pckfn23]

@BF004 Approximate Value in first 3 years.
2021 - https://stathead.com/tiny/OZlR1
2020 - https://stathead.com/tiny/TWWQk
2019 - https://stathead.com/tiny/9KNqX
2018 - https://stathead.com/tiny/oSHvF
2017 - https://stathead.com/tiny/FZ1gV

Neat!

Easy way to sum all the AV’s?


Would still wanna wait 4 years. Guy named Jordan Love comes to mind.

Without pasting it into a spreadsheet, no.

[Labrev]

I think there is a lot more to a successful draft than making the pick, and then looking at the results. There is a lot that happens between Point A and Point B that affects the outcome.

Stokes held his own as a rookie. Lots of guys have bad sophomore years then rebound in Year 3, but that requires being able to stay on the field so you can keep working on your craft. Stokes's ability to do that, whether it would have happened or not, was derailed by injury.

Myers and even Newman looked decent at rookies. Like Stokes, they had a lot to work on, but looked promising. Then both took big steps back. There was an OL coach change, and I don't think Butkus has overseen OL development well. I would say you can even include JRJ and Nijman in this convo.

I don't think Stokes, Myers, or even Newman were bad picks. There was bad injury luck for one, mishandling of the other two.

Now Amari and SJC were bad picks. It is dumb to draft guys with both size and athleticism deficiencies. They never had a shot.

[TheSkeptic]

I think there is a lot more to a successful draft than making the pick, and then looking at the results. There is a lot that happens between Point A and Point B that affects the outcome.

Stokes held his own as a rookie. Lots of guys have bad sophomore years then rebound in Year 3, but that requires being able to stay on the field so you can keep working on your craft. Stokes's ability to do that, whether it would have happened or not, was derailed by injury.

Myers and even Newman looked decent at rookies. Like Stokes, they had a lot to work on, but looked promising. Then both took big steps back. There was an OL coach change, and I don't think Butkus has overseen OL development well. I would say you can even include JRJ and Nijman in this convo.

I don't think Stokes, Myers, or even Newman were bad picks. There was bad injury luck for one, mishandling of the other two.

Now Amari and SJC were bad picks. It is dumb to draft guys with both size and athleticism deficiencies. They never had a shot.

Pretty much agree with this.

I am not sold on the Oline coach either. I don't understand how Newman and Myers could look decent as rookies and go downhill. How is it that Nijman could look decent at LT 3 seasons ago and stink up the entire stadium at RT since then? JRJ looked great as a rookie also and he has not progressed. Tom was great from day #1. Walker has progressed steadily, but that could be because he is ignoring the coach. Even Jenkins has regressed but that could be the residual ACL problems.

[RingoCStarrQB]

Where the heck was Gutey's head at anyway? Too busy autographing stuff maybe?

[Yoop]

I think there is a lot more to a successful draft than making the pick, and then looking at the results. There is a lot that happens between Point A and Point B that affects the outcome.

Stokes held his own as a rookie. Lots of guys have bad sophomore years then rebound in Year 3, but that requires being able to stay on the field so you can keep working on your craft. Stokes's ability to do that, whether it would have happened or not, was derailed by injury.

Myers and even Newman looked decent at rookies. Like Stokes, they had a lot to work on, but looked promising. Then both took big steps back. There was an OL coach change, and I don't think Butkus has overseen OL development well. I would say you can even include JRJ and Nijman in this convo.

I don't think Stokes, Myers, or even Newman were bad picks. There was bad injury luck for one, mishandling of the other two.

Now Amari and SJC were bad picks. It is dumb to draft guys with both size and athleticism deficiencies. They never had a shot.

Pretty much agree with this.

I am not sold on the Oline coach either. I don't understand how Newman and Myers could look decent as rookies and go downhill. How is it that Nijman could look decent at LT 3 seasons ago and stink up the entire stadium at RT since then? JRJ looked great as a rookie also and he has not progressed. Tom was great from day #1. Walker has progressed steadily, but that could be because he is ignoring the coach. Even Jenkins has regressed but that could be the residual ACL problems.

one possibility we over look is game film study, players watch game film of players they will face, the more they watch, the more they learn, it's what gives them a edge, they learn tendencies and weakness, it explains some of the second year decline in performance from the rookie season when there was very little film to study on him, which could be what we see with Nijman, or Myers, or Stokes.

WAlker has progressed as rapidly as he has do to coaching, thats a plus for Butkus

[Labrev]

Walker turned things around. That is a point in favor of the OL coach, yes.

But with the regression of four other players, all of whom at one point have played decent enough football for us to believe they should be better than they are now, said coach's score is still in the negative.

Maybe he coaches OTs better than IOL.

[Yoop]

Walker turned things around. That is a point in favor of the OL coach, yes.

But with the regression of four other players, all of whom at one point have played decent enough football for us to believe they should be better than they are now, said coach's score is still in the negative.

Maybe he coaches OTs better than IOL.

the only decline was with Myers and JRJ, Jenkins showed he wasn't good on the edge, even that could be attributed to still recovering from ACL, he continued to improve when back at LG, Myers to made improvements as the season progressed, we had the 11 ranked OL last year in pass pro, when ya consider how it started thats a pretty good finish.

I complained about Butkus early last year, I had to take that back later in the season as this line gelled up

[Pugger]

I googled this with the question how many decent players found in a draft is considered good and the consensus seems to be if you find 3 or 4 meaningful players that is considered a success. Myers, Slaton and McDuffie would qualify IMO of decent/good players in that draft so the 2021 draft might not be as bad as lupe is suggesting.

[lupedafiasco]

I googled this with the question how many decent players found in a draft is considered good and the consensus seems to be if you find 3 or 4 meaningful players that is considered a success. Myers, Slaton and McDuffie would qualify IMO of decent/good players in that draft so the 2021 draft might not be as bad as lupe is suggesting.

In what way would you consider any of those players good? Like I said not a single player from this class screams we need to retain them. Theyre either all highly replaceable or even worse, you want to replace them.

[wallyuwl]

I googled this with the question how many decent players found in a draft is considered good and the consensus seems to be if you find 3 or 4 meaningful players that is considered a success. Myers, Slaton and McDuffie would qualify IMO of decent/good players in that draft so the 2021 draft might not be as bad as lupe is suggesting.

In what way would you consider any of those players good? Like I said not a single player from this class screams we need to retain them. Theyre either all highly replaceable or even worse, you want to replace them.

McDuffie is pretty good. He deserves a 2nd contract, IMO.