Packers re-sign Keisean Nixon 3yr $18M (19.2 max)

[Half Empty]

I would imagine it's merely how much one would prefer a stat line of starting from

25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, to on of starting from

23, 20, 25, TD, 22, 20, 25, opponent's 30,

[lupedafiasco]

Give me starting at the 25 yards line for league minimum every damn day of the week. The NFL neutered kick returns. That’s why no other team gives a &%$@.

[Yoop]

I much prefer to have a guy like Nixon give us a shot at a big return rather than simply allowing the touchback on every KO. If he only gets it out to the 20-25 yd line, so what? At some point, like he did in the playoffs, he'll break one.

I'll take that ordinary average start position for a potential game-breaking play at a critical moment every time.

spot on, anyone with a lick of sense would, and it's certainly part of the reason he was paid what he was.

I can't even fathom why anyone would argue over this.

What's unfathomable about wanting to start from the 25 more often than behind it?

inches behind it, another mountain from a moll hill, I refuse to accept mediocrity when it's possible to do better.

[Labrev]

I would imagine it's merely how much one would prefer a stat line of starting from

25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, to on of starting from

23, 20, 25, TD, 22, 20, 25, opponent's 30,

If the stat-line actually looked like that, I would be all for it. In reality, I think he had like 3 "big" returns all regular season.

More often, he was short of the 25, sometimes by very little, but sometimes by a bit more than very little. I feel like that adds up.

Not to mention, ST plays are riddled with injuries.

[lupedafiasco]

I would imagine it's merely how much one would prefer a stat line of starting from

25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, to on of starting from

23, 20, 25, TD, 22, 20, 25, opponent's 30,

If the stat-line actually looked like that, I would be all for it. In reality, I think he had like 3 "big" returns all regular season.

More often, he was short of the 25, sometimes by very little, but sometimes by a bit more than very little. I feel like that adds up.

Not to mention, ST plays are riddled with injuries.

Also need to factor in natural STs penalties like holding or block in the backs that set you back to the teens.

A kick return for a TD is amazing but in most situations that means your defense just was on the field for a drive long enough to give up points and not they’re coming right back out. Not saying you don’t take the points when you can get them but it does burn out a defense.

[APB]

I would imagine it's merely how much one would prefer a stat line of starting from

25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, 25, to on of starting from

23, 20, 25, TD, 22, 20, 25, opponent's 30,

If the stat-line actually looked like that, I would be all for it. In reality, I think he had like 3 "big" returns all regular season.

More often, he was short of the 25, sometimes by very little, but sometimes by a bit more than very little. I feel like that adds up.

Not to mention, ST plays are riddled with injuries.

Also need to factor in natural STs penalties like holding or block in the backs that set you back to the teens.

A kick return for a TD is amazing but in most situations that means your defense just was on the field for a drive long enough to give up points and not they’re coming right back out. Not saying you don’t take the points when you can get them but it does burn out a defense.

Dude.

That has got to be the sorriest, most neutered rationalization for sticking to an opinion I’ve ever heard.

Bring back hyper-aggressive Lupe. This version is broken.

[CWIMM]

are you saying the league should abolish kick returns?

Nixon runs em out on the possibility the blocking will provide a lane, he'll get through it and have a big return, the year prior I read he provided us with the best field position in the league, shorter field, should help the offense, Aaron Rodgers seemed to think it did

No, I'm not advocating to abolish kick returns. I want Nixon to be smarter on his decisions which one to return though.

If the stat-line actually looked like that, I would be all for it. In reality, I think he had like 3 "big" returns all regular season.

More often, he was short of the 25, sometimes by very little, but sometimes by a bit more than very little. I feel like that adds up.

It's true the Packers had great field position after three kickoff returns by Nixon, once being at the opponent's 44-yard line, once on their own 47 and another one their own 39. Interestingly two of them happened with Nixon returning it after catching it three and four yards in his own end zone.

Overall the team's starting field position was 27.18 yards when he returned kickoffs outside the end zone compared to 23.21 when taking it out of it.

[APB]

Overall the team's starting field position was 27.18 yards when he returned kickoffs outside the end zone compared to 23.21 when taking it out of it.

Interesting. Where did you find that stat breakdown? And is there a stat measure that quantifies returns from a specific depth in the end zone, say from 1-3 yards deep as opposed to 4 yards or greater?

[Yoop]

are you saying the league should abolish kick returns?

Nixon runs em out on the possibility the blocking will provide a lane, he'll get through it and have a big return, the year prior I read he provided us with the best field position in the league, shorter field, should help the offense, Aaron Rodgers seemed to think it did

No, I'm not advocating to abolish kick returns. I want Nixon to be smarter on his decisions which one to return though.

If the stat-line actually looked like that, I would be all for it. In reality, I think he had like 3 "big" returns all regular season.

More often, he was short of the 25, sometimes by very little, but sometimes by a bit more than very little. I feel like that adds up.

It's true the Packers had great field position after three kickoff returns by Nixon, once being at the opponent's 44-yard line, once on their own 47 and another one their own 39. Interestingly two of them happened with Nixon returning it after catching it three and four yards in his own end zone.

Overall the team's starting field position was 27.18 yards when he returned kickoffs outside the end zone compared to 23.21 when taking it out of it.

but as you just said 2 of his best where from near mid zone of the EZ, and while he comes up a yrd or two short of touch back yardage there is always the chance a lane will open and he'll get more yardage, for me, that is a worthwhile gamble.

heck this whole game is dedicated to taking gambles, it's a game of "if you snooze, you are likely to lose.

I asked about abolishing the kick offs because so many seem to want that, I understand the injury concerns, but kickoffs are a exciting aspect of the game, and can tip the score just like any other big play with a long return or TD.

1300 yrds in 2022 was exciting, Nixon supplied the offense with a shorter field, hopefully we get the blocking better so he can do that again.

[Labrev]

I actually do not want to abolish the kickoff, but what we want does not matter, because the NFL is neutering it like it or not.

So the value of a return specialist, whose strength is KR more than PR, takes a hit.

I will say though that, even though I would not have done this, myself, this contract does at least have a chance of paying off for us. If he returns like he did in '22, then this was worth every penny. '23, not so much.

[Yoop]

I actually do not want to abolish the kickoff, but what we want does not matter, because the NFL is neutering it like it or not.

So the value of a return specialist, whose strength is KR more than PR, takes a hit.

I will say though that, even though I would not have done this, myself, this contract does at least have a chance of paying off for us. If he returns like he did in '22, then this was worth every penny. '23, not so much.

all the nfl did was make it more palatable to just take a touch back by moving it from the 20 yrd line to the 25, I think everything else stayed the same, but the goal has never been for the returners to only get 25 yrds per return.

teams with limited returners or lousy ST's play received a benefit by that, so they take advantage, however our 2022 success tells me if ya got the goods use em, take that gamble, cause it's bound to pay off at some point, heck could have won us another PO game last season, could have spring boarded us into a SB, what if's matter

[TheSkeptic]

If a team's KR is not very good, the kicker will kick the ball high and short. Late in the season and the post season when the ball is cold and hard he kicks it low and short. Then the KR has no choice.

The real question is whether Nixon is playing in the slot. If not then he should be returning punts too

[CWIMM]

Interesting. Where did you find that stat breakdown? And is there a stat measure that quantifies returns from a specific depth in the end zone, say from 1-3 yards deep as opposed to 4 yards or greater?

I used Stathead's game play finder to figure out the stats on my own. They track the distance a kickoff travels before being returned.

Here's a link to Nixon's returns in 2023:
https://stathead.com/tiny/LzbVx

If a team's KR is not very good, the kicker will kick the ball high and short. Late in the season and the post season when the ball is cold and hard he kicks it low and short. Then the KR has no choice.

Actually, returners can now fair catch the ball outside of the end zone for a touchback on the 25-yard line as well.

[NCF]

This might shed a little more light on Nixon's valuation. Big changes coming for the kick-off including penalizing the KO Team for kicking touchbacks.

[YoHoChecko]

woah; are those changes official? That's going to generate a TON more returns, don't we think? Putting it on the 35 if it goes into the end zone on the fly is pretty wild.

[Yoop]

Awesome changes, safer for players, and excitement of return for fans again.

Nixon has the vision and speed to give us good field position with every return if the blocking just gives him a little crease.

[NCF]

woah; are those changes official? That's going to generate a TON more returns, don't we think? Putting it on the 35 if it goes into the end zone on the fly is pretty wild.

Up for vote at the League Meeting. Early chatter is that this was pretty collaborative and is not expected to meet much resistance.

[Labrev]

If the rule change leads to more returns, then yeah, re-signing Nixon makes a lot more sense to me.

[YoHoChecko]

[CWIMM]

Here's a breakdown of Nixon's contract:

He received a $6.5 million signing bonus which will be prorated for cap purposes over the length of the contract, counting against the cap $2,166,667 each season.

2024:
$1,125,000 base salary
$200,000 workout bonus
$500,000 weekly roster bonus
Cap hit: $3,991,667

2025:
$2,805,000 roster bonns due on the fifth day of the league year
$1,170,000 base salary
$200,000 workout bonus
$500,000 weekly roster bonus
Cap hit: $6,841,667

2026:
$4,300,000 base salary
$200,000 workout bonus
$500,000 weekly roster bonus
Cap hit: $7,166,667