2020 Positional Draft Talk - ILB

[Freewheelingutey]

It doesn’t help that when you get the earliest pick you’ve had in a decade and you pick a backup.

Agreed!! Still shaking my head over that pick!! I hope Gary has a great career..but..you don't pick that high very often. They still needed another stud next to Kenny..which they could've easily drafted..even if they moved down.

I’m curious what it was the last 10 years vs the first 10 years.

[salmar80]

[mention]Freewheelingutey[/mention] I already calculated the last 10 years' results for 14 teams of interest, and explained how to read it in my previous post. It's a lot of adding up, so if you or [mention]lupedafiasco[/mention] want to do the rest of the teams, you can use https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... finder.cgi .

I doubt you'll get the result you want, tho.

Seahawks 1291
Patriots 1081
Packers 1051
Cowboys 1001
Chiefs 994
Browns 972
Broncos 970
Ravens 960
Eagles 947
Vikings 918
49ers 908
Panthers 888
Lions 860
Bears 747

[Freewheelingutey]

Thanks for your hard work! I have no idea what any of it means though.

[NCF]

Thanks for your hard work! I have no idea what any of it means though.

Its a sum of AV (approximate value) based on the calculation, below.

CarAV -- Weighted Career Approximate Value.
See the glossary for details on how we compute Approximate Value.
The career AV is computed by summing
100 percent of the AV of his best season,
95 percent of the AV of his next-best season,
90 percent of the AV of his third-best season,
and so on

Calculated where AV is a manual assignment of each player, every year.

AV -- Approximate Value is our attempt to attach a single number to every player-season since 1960.
See the glossary for more information.

[Pckfn23]

Using AV it is showing who is the better drafting teams.

[Yoop]

Thanks for your hard work! I have no idea what any of it means though.

don't feel bad, this stuff is a secret to 99% of fans, thats why it's so important to be a member of Packer Huddle, a highly informative Packer fan site, where information like this can be debated for hours even days, or at least till this pandemic is over

[bud fox]

This way of grading who is better at drafting is silly.

Firstly not sure how AV is calculated - is it subjective - there would need to be some form of subjectivity to the calculation.

Secondly a more accurate way using AV would likely to be to use the top two or three AV scores for drafted players each year. Some teams don't play rookies where as others may play 7 - the the team playing 7 will have a higher AV score. A teams real draft success should also be concentrated on the amount of high quality players drafted as football has a limited number of positions.

Over the last 20 years Rodgers, Kuhn, Matthews and Bakhtiari.

Measure that against other teams - Kuhn is really a much less valued position aswell.

[NCF]

Firstly not sure how AV is calculated - is it subjective - there would need to be some form of subjectivity to the calculation.

I posted the definitions, above. Also, that is why I think CareerAV is a better measure, even if it is still subjective.

[go pak go]

The Packers were also the NFC team of the decade finishing ahead of Seattle when we beat them. I don't know how many other ways we need to show the Packers are freaking good.

[bud fox]

Firstly not sure how AV is calculated - is it subjective - there would need to be some form of subjectivity to the calculation.

I posted the definitions, above. Also, that is why I think CareerAV is a better measure, even if it is still subjective.

Yuh - I think it should be limited to the three best draft picks each year - not all drafted players. QBs will be higher rated but they should because it is a more valuable position.

[Pckfn23]

Why limit to the 3 best? That number sounds rather random. What if a team has 4 pro bowlers from 1 draft? But if you want to, go ahead. Let us know where the Packers rank.

[salmar80]

Thanks for your hard work! I have no idea what any of it means though.

don't feel bad, this stuff is a secret to 99% of fans, thats why it's so important to be a member of Packer Huddle, a highly informative Packer fan site, where information like this can be debated for hours even days, or at least till this pandemic is over

Basically means the Packers have drafted great during the last 20 years. If you just look at only last 10 years, it looks like they're still near the top, despite some clunkers.

Some of the score is due to the Packers' long-term tendency to play our picks a lot, but there's no way to get scores this high without making a lot of good draft picks.

I think I know what lupe was hoping for when he asked the results for the last 10 years: The Packers to look real bad in them, "confirming" that TT sucked late in his career.

I didn't bother calculating the results for all 32 teams, because I was sure that as soon as TT didn't look as bad as hoped, people with that agenda would just dismiss CareerAV as a way to rank drafts.

I think bud fox has a point with subjectivity... Why even look for an objective way to rank drafting, when you can just invent the exact criteria you want to make the GM you're targeting look just like you want him?

[Yoop]

Thanks for your hard work! I have no idea what any of it means though.

don't feel bad, this stuff is a secret to 99% of fans, thats why it's so important to be a member of Packer Huddle, a highly informative Packer fan site, where information like this can be debated for hours even days, or at least till this pandemic is over

Basically means the Packers have drafted great during the last 20 years. If you just look at only last 10 years, it looks like they're still near the top, despite some clunkers.

Some of the score is due to the Packers' long-term tendency to play our picks a lot, but there's no way to get scores this high without making a lot of good draft picks.

I think I know what lupe was hoping for when he asked the results for the last 10 years: The Packers to look real bad in them, "confirming" that TT sucked late in his career.

I didn't bother calculating the results for all 32 teams, because I was sure that as soon as TT didn't look as bad as hoped, people with that agenda would just dismiss CareerAV as a way to rank drafts.

I think bud fox has a point with subjectivity... Why even look for an objective way to rank drafting, when you can just invent the exact criteria you want to make the GM you're targeting look just like you want him?

agreed, I just felt it was a good spot to promo the new forum name

[Pckfn23]

Finished Simmons 2019. I don't see an ILB. I see a strong safety. I good and versatile safety. I know Clemson played him that way a lot, but I don't see anything that tells me he can be an effective run defender. Does a lot of catching when tackling straight up. I am not 100% impressed with his motivation on every play either. His play in space is exceptional.

From another thread. I think it is tough to classify Simmons as a linebacker. At best he is a hybrid safety.

[Pckfn23]

I am out on Jordyn Brooks before the 5th round. The guy has some athletic ability, but man does he take poor angles and has some bad instincts. Probably the worst ILB film I have watched so far.

[Pckfn23]

Logan Wilson not much of a playmaker, but has some moments. Takes bad angles at times and seems robotic instead of instinctual. I would take him in round 4, but not before.

[Pckfn23]

Baun submitted diluted sample at Combine... Not sure what that does.

[salmar80]

Baun submitted diluted sample at Combine... Not sure what that does.

In 2018 Holton Hill (Texas), Desmond Harrison (West Georgia) and Antonio Callaway (Florida) failed the drug test. At least Callaway had a diluted sample and first claimed he was over-hydrated, but later admitted to smoking weed "two weeks" before the draft. All three fell pretty hard in the draft.

It's not a good sign if you can't stay clean for the most important testing day of a prospect's spring.

[TheSkeptic]

Baun submitted diluted sample at Combine... Not sure what that does.

In 2018 Holton Hill (Texas), Desmond Harrison (West Georgia) and Antonio Callaway (Florida) failed the drug test. At least Callaway had a diluted sample and first claimed he was over-hydrated, but later admitted to smoking weed "two weeks" before the draft. All three fell pretty hard in the draft.

It's not a good sign if you can't stay clean for the most important testing day of a prospect's spring.

I wouldn't have taken him before the end of the 2nd round anyway as he is too small to play OLB. Moving to ILB will be a big transition and he probably would not contribute until mid-season. Now it looks probably that he will be there. But hopefully it is not weed because it would be a shame to see him die of the coronavirus in November and smoking anything is a big time risk factor. If it is weed, no thanks, pass, take him in the 5th instead.

[Yoop]

Baum has played a lot of drop and cover, he should be able to pick up on the duty of a off ball lber pretty quick, I don't think he's what I'd look for as a ILB for us, but most draft sites consider him the 4th best choice to become one for a NFL team, and they figure he'll be picked early to mid 2nd round.

most GM realize now that smoking a little weed is no different then having a couple drinks, and have convinced the league officials that it is counter productive to suspend players simply because they want to use a different substance to un wind and relax, sure took them long enough to come to there senses, and to quit punishing both player and team for something far less dangerous then alcohol.