The Super Bowl or Road To It

[BF004]

Wish I could save all my draft notes and comments, but have no idea which ones I'd wanna keep, lol.

[YoHoChecko]

Hell, even Wally was optimistic.

Pretty sure that automatically wins me this argument.

And yet a week earlier:

image.png (18.07 KiB) Viewed 406 times

[BF004]

Hell, even Wally was optimistic.

Pretty sure that automatically wins me this argument.

And yet a week earlier:
image.png

Hey if wally was even slightly optimistic about this team at any time, that is saying a lot.

Guess I think it is a little worse right now. There weren't any 'FIRE COACH X' threads in that time despite worse losses, worse record, worse outlook. Here its because we didn't win by more than 14.

[YoHoChecko]

Guess I think it is a little worse right now. There weren't any 'FIRE COACH X' threads in that time despite worse losses, worse record, worse outlook. Here its because we didn't win by more than 14.

I guess; there were a ton of "MM does some things well, but he'll never get us over the hump" comments in the bit I reviewed. HEAPS of playcalling complaints. I feel like it came pretty close to wanting him gone, and if it was a coordinator, might have been. But I can concede that maybe it wasn't quite as bad as I recall it?

[Labrev]

I remember 2010 decently well. I came into the season thinking, "This is our year, our QB/offense is legit, another season to perfect the new D and get last year's 1st-rounders involved puts us in a great position to make a run." We were definitely an early favorite...

But then with our IR designations piling up and mid-season mediocrity, I had counted us out of it. Things were not looking good. Our RB situation was such a dumpster fire after Grant went down that it held our offense back. Opposing defenses did not have to respect the run at all and there was zero consequence selling out to the pass because Brandon Jackson could not make you pay. Great 3DRB, not an NFL-caliber RB1.

James Starks was nothing short of a godsend off the PUP. Classic TT relying on a 6th-round rookie to save our season rather than making some move (to be fair, he did for the then-starter Ryan Grant), but his draft mojo was real back then and he delivered on that pick.

[kyle.mccarroll]

Wow, there's some throwback names in those threads!

[Pckfn23]

Hell, even Wally was optimistic.

Pretty sure that automatically wins me this argument.

And yet a week earlier:
image.png

Hey if wally was even slightly optimistic about this team at any time, that is saying a lot.

Guess I think it is a little worse right now. There weren't any 'FIRE COACH X' threads in that time despite worse losses, worse record, worse outlook. Here its because we didn't win by more than 14.

In 2010 Packers Planet had not shut down yet...

[RingoCStarrQB]

As we attempt to prognosticate getting the first round BYE, here is where you can put in the hypothetical game outcomes.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

And also predict holding the NFC Championship Game at Lambeau Field.

[texas]

I disagree with your recollection. We were unanimously picked by every nfl.com (might have been ESPN but it was one of the major ones) expert before the season to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, which I think might have been a first. I remember making a point of the fact that our defense won us that first game, which hadn't happened in like a decade. I remember being astounded at how bad our luck was and how good we would have been if we just had a few lucky breaks here and there. Also I remember reading a playoff QB ranking at the start of the playoffs, where they ranked Rodgers near the bottom and specifically, below Matt Ryan, and I thought it was just so much trash because I could tell Rodgers was like the best or 2nd best QB in the whole damn league. I don't think I was alone during that season either in thinking we had gotten incredibly unlucky and were in fact one of the top teams. People like MM's famous quote "we're nobody's underdog" for its message, but I think a lot of people also legitimately believed it at the time too.

There's some contradictions here.

So, maybe you're right that everyone picked the Packers before the season; that would be a little strange, since we were just fine in 2009, but like... there's a hot "rising" team to pick every year. Look at all the people who picked the Cardinals to soar this year or the Browns last year. Preseason expectations are not what I'm discussing.

It was definitely one of the major sites. They had like 7 or 8 experts make their pre-season super bowl picks and every one of them picked us.

In-season, maybe you were optimistic and positive about the team; I can't speak for you. But a) that feels a bit out of your current m.o., and b) that doesn't mean you were representative. In fact, the two things you mention--Rodgers being ranked low on playoff QBs and MM's slogan--speak exactly to the fact that expectations for the Packers had, in the general public, dropped off precipitously.

I don't think my M.O. is negativity and pessimism. It certainly isn't pessimism.

MM wouldn't have to say "we're nobody's underdog" if the general consensus was that we were, in fact, the underdog. Rodgers wouldn't be ranked low if the general consensus was that the Falcons' regular season win over the Packers was just bad luck and would not likely be repeated in the playoffs. The notion that "Rodgers can't win when it matters" was always stupid, because losing a playoff shootout where both teams score in the 40s the previous year does not make you a bad crunchtime QB, but that was the feeling and the vibe that existed.

Well, that's not entirely true because it is possible for a coach to both pretend that they are an underdog even though they are not, as well as feel as though they are actually underdogs and be incorrect. I do think you are correct in that most of the media probably were not seriously considering us at that point (although they 100% did early on). But MM's words don't indicate anything one way or another.

So if you were a rebel who thought the Packers were better than they were perceived to be (and rebellion does fit what I know of your m.o.), then great. But don't re-write the script to say that analysts and fans generally felt that way. It just isn't the case.

I do remember a lot of fans thinking we were pretty solid. I know that year I said that the Falcons were way overrated and that they had significantly overperformed relative to how good they actually were. One of the things I liked best about that season is that on the way to our SB victory, we knocked off the teams who were responsible for our 3 worst recent screwjobs. I was very angry the previous year when Pittsburgh beat us late in the year on a &%$@ play, and I hated how literally every bounce and call went ATL's way in our regular season matchup, and the Bears had been on a streak of being the beneficiary of lucky bounces and officiating blunders against us, including what I remember as one of the worst screwjobs I have ever seen officiated by none other than affirmative action hire Al Riveron, who has consistently failed upwards.

Because of all that, I remember that season better than many of our most recent seasons.

[RingoCStarrQB]

I disagree with your recollection. We were unanimously picked by every nfl.com (might have been ESPN but it was one of the major ones) expert before the season to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, which I think might have been a first. I remember making a point of the fact that our defense won us that first game, which hadn't happened in like a decade. I remember being astounded at how bad our luck was and how good we would have been if we just had a few lucky breaks here and there. Also I remember reading a playoff QB ranking at the start of the playoffs, where they ranked Rodgers near the bottom and specifically, below Matt Ryan, and I thought it was just so much trash because I could tell Rodgers was like the best or 2nd best QB in the whole damn league. I don't think I was alone during that season either in thinking we had gotten incredibly unlucky and were in fact one of the top teams. People like MM's famous quote "we're nobody's underdog" for its message, but I think a lot of people also legitimately believed it at the time too.

There's some contradictions here.

So, maybe you're right that everyone picked the Packers before the season; that would be a little strange, since we were just fine in 2009, but like... there's a hot "rising" team to pick every year. Look at all the people who picked the Cardinals to soar this year or the Browns last year. Preseason expectations are not what I'm discussing.

It was definitely one of the major sites. They had like 7 or 8 experts make their pre-season super bowl picks and every one of them picked us.

In-season, maybe you were optimistic and positive about the team; I can't speak for you. But a) that feels a bit out of your current m.o., and b) that doesn't mean you were representative. In fact, the two things you mention--Rodgers being ranked low on playoff QBs and MM's slogan--speak exactly to the fact that expectations for the Packers had, in the general public, dropped off precipitously.

I don't think my M.O. is negativity and pessimism. It certainly isn't pessimism.

MM wouldn't have to say "we're nobody's underdog" if the general consensus was that we were, in fact, the underdog. Rodgers wouldn't be ranked low if the general consensus was that the Falcons' regular season win over the Packers was just bad luck and would not likely be repeated in the playoffs. The notion that "Rodgers can't win when it matters" was always stupid, because losing a playoff shootout where both teams score in the 40s the previous year does not make you a bad crunchtime QB, but that was the feeling and the vibe that existed.

Well, that's not entirely true because it is possible for a coach to both pretend that they are an underdog even though they are not, as well as feel as though they are actually underdogs and be incorrect. I do think you are correct in that most of the media probably were not seriously considering us at that point (although they 100% did early on). But MM's words don't indicate anything one way or another.

So if you were a rebel who thought the Packers were better than they were perceived to be (and rebellion does fit what I know of your m.o.), then great. But don't re-write the script to say that analysts and fans generally felt that way. It just isn't the case.

I do remember a lot of fans thinking we were pretty solid. I know that year I said that the Falcons were way overrated and that they had significantly overperformed relative to how good they actually were. One of the things I liked best about that season is that on the way to our SB victory, we knocked off the teams who were responsible for our 3 worst recent screwjobs. I was very angry the previous year when Pittsburgh beat us late in the year on a &%$@ play, and I hated how literally every bounce and call went ATL's way in our regular season matchup, and the Bears had been on a streak of being the beneficiary of lucky bounces and officiating blunders against us, including what I remember as one of the worst screwjobs I have ever seen officiated by none other than affirmative action hire Al Riveron, who has consistently failed upwards.

Because of all that, I remember that season better than many of our most recent seasons.

I remember on that Sunday morning flying across the country to SFO. Getting a rental car at SFO and driving across one of the bridges to get to a Packers bar in Oakland to watch the NFC Championship Game with an old chat board buddy. Watching the game from kickoff to the final gun. After the game driving back to San Francisco to check in to my hotel. Walking over to a nearby San Francisco sports bar to watch the second half of the AFC Championship game. And now, subsequently for a complete decade, smiling over and over again as I gleefully watch this youtube video over and over again ............ ENJOY PACKERS fans. This play is right up there with the 31Wedge play in the Ice Bowl and Desmond Howard's kickoff return in Super Bowl 31 and Reggie White's sacks in Super Bowl 31. As BJ showed us, anything can happen when you drop back a defensive lineman, ala #64 John Jurkovic did against the Niners in the 1995 playoffs when Fritz Shurmur was the Packers DC.

[YoHoChecko]

ESPN Playoff machine a has us winning a 3-way tie at 12-4 if our loss is to the Titans now, btw; other teams conference records have met ours (that's tie with the Saints and the Seahawks OR Rams)

I dunno if that's common games or SoV or what.

[YoHoChecko]

Football Outiders odds update:4

Packers have a
- 55% chance at the 1-seed
- 21% chance at the 2-seed, and
- 23% chance at the 3-seed

Super winner odds have moved to:
- 26.8% chance KC Chiefs (up from 21%)
- 17.7% chance NO Saints (down from 35%)
- 13.9% chance GB Packers (up from 9%)
- 9.8% chance PIT Steelers (down from 15%)
- 8.5% chance LA Rams (up from 5 %)

[go pak go]

ESPN Playoff machine a has us winning a 3-way tie at 12-4 if our loss is to the Titans now, btw; other teams conference records have met ours (that's tie with the Saints and the Seahawks OR Rams)

I dunno if that's common games or SoV or what.

Yes. The Eagles loss was huge because of conference record and common opponent. It would have worked if MN beat NO's too.

So at 12-4, we will have tiebreaker in a three way tie with NO's and the NFC West because NO's and GB have tiebreakers over the West: Rams is Common Oppoennt (we beat SF and SF swept LAR) and we both have tiebreakers over Seattle with conference record.

We then also get tiebreaker of head to head over NO's.

[BF004]

Packers hiding under the Chiefs.





Packers actually much better with the garbage time filter on, particularly for the D, which I think we have all seen.

[NCF]

The Jets are something special. They are the equivalent of a full team made up from only components of our punt team.

[BF004]

Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I think I was the first I had seen build in a garbage time filter and still think mine is far superior than just filtering out <.05 & >.95 or <.10 & >.90 as is commonly seen.

[go pak go]

Not to toot my own horn or anything, but I think I was the first I had seen build in a garbage time filter and still think mine is far superior than just filtering out <.05 & >.95 or <.10 & >.90 as is commonly seen.

His graph perfectly displays why people called us overrated in 2019.