Topic Split: Stock Market Watch

Cheesy topics (like the Cheese Curds thread) go here. Topics that aren't Packer related will be moved here as well.

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BF004
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Post by BF004 »

wallyuwl wrote:
03 Jun 2021 12:04
Price started going up, from $45 to $52. By the time I was able to place my order it was at $54. Bought 20 more shares. It is now at $57 a few minutes later.
That 11.5 million share offering has been completed, as announced by AMC press release.

Could see this running the rest of the day now pretty good.
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Post by paco »

already up over $67. Love it.
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Post by wallyuwl »

paco wrote:
03 Jun 2021 12:53
already up over $67. Love it.
Down to $62. But over next few weeks this thing is going to the moon. Damn wish I would have pulled the trigger at $45 today. Or bought thousands more months ago. Wife is very risk averse.

Want to see what happened to shorts today.

Diamond hands.

Edit... based on Ortex twitter, short interest is at about 17.8%, down about half a percentage point today.
Last edited by wallyuwl on 03 Jun 2021 13:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Post by BF004 »

wallyuwl wrote:
03 Jun 2021 13:31
paco wrote:
03 Jun 2021 12:53
already up over $67. Love it.
Down to $62. But over next few weeks this thing is going to the moon. Damn wish I would have pulled the trigger at $45 today. Or bought thousands more months ago. Wife is very risk averse.

Want to see what happened to shorts today.

Diamond hands.
We'll just say my wife isn't quite aware how much I have pumped into this. :lol:


Been a boring last hour, looks like we might be stuck in a bull flag. Nice when it finally breaks, but you never know when it will.
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Post by wallyuwl »

Ended at $51 and basically flat in after hours so far. Wild day, that is for sure. Range was $39 to $67! Lets hope for another jump tomorrow. Haven't gotten official word on how shorts did today or % of float still out compared to yesterday or Tuesday.


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Post by wallyuwl »

Good interview Trey had with the CEO Adam Aron tonight (I have watched Trey on and off for a few months on his YT channel). Around the 13 min mark you see he (CEO) is wearing shorts, not pants. A message to the apes, so many naked shorts! To the moon!


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Yeah, been watching Trey for months.

He might be the single biggest reason I didn’t give up on AMC in February when we hit like $5.50.


I usually leave Matt Kohrs on all day long during the workday now.
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Post by wallyuwl »

Going to be another wild day. Opened at $54, down to $50, up to $55, down to $50. All within the first 25 min.

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Post by BF004 »

wallyuwl wrote:
04 Jun 2021 08:55
Going to be another wild day. Opened at $54, down to $50, up to $55, down to $50. All within the first 25 min.
Apparently, 11% of all options traded yesterday on the entire market were on AMC.

Not just for this Friday, but in the future as well. The option hedging and de-hedging gunna amplify every price change pretty crazy today. Up and down.
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Post by wallyuwl »

BF004 wrote:
04 Jun 2021 08:58


Apparently, 11% of all options traded yesterday on the entire market were on AMC.

Not just for this Friday, but in the future as well. The option hedging and de-hedging gunna amplify every price change pretty crazy today. Up and down.
I thought that was for Wednesday (the 11%)?

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Post by BF004 »

wallyuwl wrote:
04 Jun 2021 09:07
BF004 wrote:
04 Jun 2021 08:58


Apparently, 11% of all options traded yesterday on the entire market were on AMC.

Not just for this Friday, but in the future as well. The option hedging and de-hedging gunna amplify every price change pretty crazy today. Up and down.
I thought that was for Wednesday (the 11%)?
Whichever day, still all in play. I had thought yesterday because on Wednesday, options were only offered up to $73 and all were in the money, they just expanded yesterday to $145.
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Post by BF004 »

I feel like most Fridays we leave disappointed, day that matters most with the options and the days the shorters and bears will use their most ammo and do their most work.


Of course a little FOMO can and gamma hedging can erase anything they can manage, but I guess my expectations for today specifically aren't high.

In my head I'm picturing another good week next week, maybe bounce around like 80-120 by the end of the week, then the week after, we might get our spike ahead of those June 18th option day. At least that is how I am playing my options strategy and what not right now.


Either way, I'm holding until the shorts start covering. Even if this still ends up stretching out for months yet.
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Post by wallyuwl »

BF004 wrote:
04 Jun 2021 09:25
I feel like most Fridays we leave disappointed, day that matters most with the options and the days the shorters and bears will use their most ammo and do their most work.


Of course a little FOMO can and gamma hedging can erase anything they can manage, but I guess my expectations for today specifically aren't high.

In my head I'm picturing another good week next week, maybe bounce around like 80-120 by the end of the week, then the week after, we might get our spike ahead of those June 18th option day. At least that is how I am playing my options strategy and what not right now.


Either way, I'm holding until the shorts start covering. Even if this still ends up stretching out for months yet.
Sounds like a solid strategy. The shorts have to cover eventually. What is separating AMC now vs GME in February is that the shorts are not rushing to cover right now. But eventually they need to, their interest rate is around 18%.

And the more I think about it, and something I read on WallstreetBetsELITE Reddit, is that shorts didn't actually really cover at all yesterday. The % of free float went down about a half a percent, but the number of shares increased 11.5 million (almost 20 million including the other 8 million a few days ago). So basically if you think of the shorts as water, and the total shares as a bucket, basically the water just got dumped into a slightly bigger bucket and now take up less space in the slightly larger bucket than they did in the other bucket.

Really wish I could have gotten in around $45 yesterday when I hoped to. I waited until it got to $52 and it was at $54 by the time I placed the order. Then by the end of the day I was in the red (for that transaction). Still in the red about $3 per share on what I bought yesterday.

Later today I'm going to watch Trey and see what he really thought of the interview. The wearing shorts thing was a big deal, IMO. All of a sudden his camera just "happened" to need adjustment. Uh huh.

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Post by BF004 »

wallyuwl wrote:
04 Jun 2021 09:54
BF004 wrote:
04 Jun 2021 09:25
I feel like most Fridays we leave disappointed, day that matters most with the options and the days the shorters and bears will use their most ammo and do their most work.


Of course a little FOMO can and gamma hedging can erase anything they can manage, but I guess my expectations for today specifically aren't high.

In my head I'm picturing another good week next week, maybe bounce around like 80-120 by the end of the week, then the week after, we might get our spike ahead of those June 18th option day. At least that is how I am playing my options strategy and what not right now.


Either way, I'm holding until the shorts start covering. Even if this still ends up stretching out for months yet.
Sounds like a solid strategy. The shorts have to cover eventually. What is separating AMC now vs GME in February is that the shorts are not rushing to cover right now. But eventually they need to, their interest rate is around 18%.

And the more I think about it, and something I read on WallstreetBetsELITE Reddit, is that shorts didn't actually really cover at all yesterday. The % of free float went down about a half a percent, but the number of shares increased 11.5 million (almost 20 million including the other 8 million a few days ago). So basically if you think of the shorts as water, and the total shares as a bucket, basically the water just got dumped into a slightly bigger bucket and now take up less space in the slightly larger bucket than they did in the other bucket.

Really wish I could have gotten in around $45 yesterday when I hoped to. I waited until it got to $52 and it was at $54 by the time I placed the order. Then by the end of the day I was in the red (for that transaction). Still in the red about $3 per share on what I bought yesterday.

Later today I'm going to watch Trey and see what he really thought of the interview. The wearing shorts thing was a big deal, IMO. All of a sudden his camera just "happened" to need adjustment. Uh huh.
When the price is $120, the 45 vs 52 won't seem like a big difference. :aok:
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Post by wallyuwl »

BF004 wrote:
04 Jun 2021 10:00

When the price is $120,000, the 45 vs 52 won't seem like a big difference. :aok:
There, fixed it for ya.

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Yessir!!!!
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Post by BF004 »

Sounds like there was about 27-30 million shorts covered on Wednesday, up to a 2 day lag on reporting.

Given the price went from about 30 to ~65 on 30 million shorts, I think we are still sitting very damn good sitting at 50.00 right now with still like 105 million to go. :aok:

Damn sure doesn't look like they covered more on Thursday or today, wouldn't be surprised if more were added.
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Post by wallyuwl »

BF004 wrote:
04 Jun 2021 13:58
Sounds like there was about 27-30 million shorts covered on Wednesday, up to a 2 day lag on reporting.

Given the price went from about 30 to ~65 on 30 million shorts, I think we are still sitting very damn good sitting at 50.00 right now with still like 105 million to go. :aok:

Damn sure doesn't look like they covered more on Thursday or today, wouldn't be surprised if more were added.
Less volatile today, but a really bad second half of the day. Going down more after hours. It will probably open around $45 to $47 on Monday.

Yeah, the squeeze hasn't happened yet. Saw a really good post on WSB_ELITE Reddit today that was basically the anatomy of a squeeze. Those covering the last few days outnumber those shorting by 10:1. But lots of shorts still out there, and at some point they will all try to cover at the same time. If they don't it will lengthen the squeeze. The spike this week was likely due to just that: the shorts covering. That means we are probably set to double and then double again. But I don't see it going beyond that anymore, sadly. :(

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Post by BF004 »

And again, as someone who I feel like I understand the big picture here, total confidence and conviction. I welcome a lower price on Monday as I’ll be buying a few calls in the morning. :beer2:
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Post by wallyuwl »

Strong open today, surprised it was as high as it was. Opened at like $53 after closing at $47 Friday. After hours on Friday went to $42, but in Germany it was trading at $49 I saw over the weekend so I expected a higher open but not $53.

Did you buy more?


Edit: pretty flat so far today in the first 2.5 hours. Range about $53 to $57, mostly around $55. Too rich for me to buy more, waiting for a dip if I do. For now thinking of staying put, though.

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