Packers Huddle

It’s easy to relive the way Green Bay’s 2020 season ended and
remember the end of 2019. No, Green Bay didn’t give up 37
points again (though 31 isn’t great), and it definitely didn’t let
its opponent rush for 285 yards. Still, the result was ultimately
the same. Once again, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers ended
their season in the NFC Championship Game, and once again,
the defense wasn’t up to the task.

It became clear that something had to change. The defense
wasn’t alone, either. Green Bay’s special teams unit was a
massive problem during the 2020 season and the playoffs.
Instead of taking a sledgehammer to his 26–6 operation,
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur took a “softer” tact.

Shortly after the end of the season, LaFleur indeed relieved
both special teams coach Shawn Mennenga and defensive
coordinator Mike Pettine. In both cases, LaFleur didn’t stray
far. Special teams will be headed by Mennenga’s top assistant,
Maurice Drayton.

Pettine’s case was more complicated. That was clear when
Green Bay took an additional two days to ultimately come to
that decision. Pettine was a coach LaFleur respected. LaFleur
chose to retain Pettine after replacing Mike McCarthy, and
he addressed the issue in his very first press conference.
“When you look at Mike Pettine, I’ve gone against his defenses
before and I think they present a lot of challenges for offenses.
The fact that he’s been a head coach and has sat in this seat,
it really affords you the opportunity to bounce ideas off of
him…. The guys I trust in this business all have great things
to say about Mike Pettine,” Coach LaFleur explained.

It seemed to make sense. Green Bay had looked more
competitive on defense in Pettine’s first year than it did under
Dom Capers. A third defensive coordinator in three years
didn’t seem like a great idea for a contending team. It also
made sense to have someone with head coaching experience
help guide a new head coach with just two seasons as a
coordinator under his belt.

Unfortunately for Green Bay, that idea was folly. Pettine’s
defenses, including his one year with McCarthy, finished 17th,
18th, and 9th in total defense, and 29th, 15th, and 17th in
defensive DVOA. Counting the year before Pettine arrived and
his three years as the defensive coordinator, Green Bay
selected eight defensive players in the top 100, including Jaire
Alexander, Rashan Gary, and Darnell Savage. The Packers
also gave free agent contracts to defenders Davon House,
Tramon Williams, Muhammad Wilkerson, Preston Smith,
Za’Darius Smith, and Christian Kirksey. Pettine was given every
chance to succeed and ultimately did not.

Again, LaFleur could have blown the entire thing up. As with
the special teams program, LaFleur only made one change:
the head man. After offering the position to Jim Leonhard
(and being turned down), LaFleur chose Rams assistant head
coach and linebackers coach Joe Barry over Rams safeties
coach Ejiro Evero. All other key defensive assistants will
remain the same.

Barry’s charge? Install Matt LaFleur’s “clear vision”
defensively. A “clear vision” is what LaFleur promised when
he opened up his search for a new defensive coordinator. What
that means is a little less than clear. “I don’t want to give the
answers to the test, so to speak,” said LaFleur of his search
for a coordinator. “There [are] certainly some characteristics
that are non-negotiable.”

The question now is just what those non-negotiable
characteristics are. Both those that he saw enough of in Joe
Barry to hire him and in the players Green Bay will look to
add to that defense. What are they trying to change? What
are they trying to add?

Though it isn’t crystal-clear, the general consensus is that
while Barry and former LA Rams defensive coordinator (and
current Chargers head man) Brandon Staley have deep Vic
Fangio roots, MLF wants the Staley version of that defense
installed in Green Bay. For good reason, too. Despite the result
of the Rams versus Packers playoff game, LA had the best
defense in football by many metrics during the 2020 season.

What exactly does that mean, and how is it different from
what Green Bay ran in 2020? There are a few key staples:

Light boxes: Staley played a “light box” based on the offensive
personnel/alignment on 85% of the Rams’ plays. The theory
behind this is to invite the opposing team to run the football.
Staley countered by playing his safeties close to the line of
scrimmage and rolling one (or both) toward the line of
scrimmage immediately prior to the snap. In general, the
Rams’ safeties played much closer to the line of scrimmage
than most, whether they were “rolling up” or not.

Eagle front: The Rams’ most-used front was an “Eagle” front.
A nose tackle, head-up on the center, and two defensive tackle
bodies (Michael Brockers and Aaron Donald, usually) playing
the 4i technique (slightly over the inside shoulder of the
offensive tackle). The EDGE players usually play in a Wide-9
technique outside of the tight end or where a tight end would
be lined up. This is a “one-gap” defensive system where players
are penetrating upfield, not stacking the offensive linemen
and working either side of him. The 4i techniques accomplish
two things: first, it forces a lot of double teams, leading to clean
linebackers, and it consistently allows the backside B-gap
player to reach across his blocker and clean up cut-back lanes.

Base personnel: Barry actually mentioned something along
these lines in his opening press conference, and the numbers
bear it out. Mike Pettine was notorious for playing nickel
against two-receiver sets and dime against three-receiver
sets, even on early downs. Three different off-ball linebackers
played more than 535 snaps for the Rams last year (Troy
Reeder, Kenny Young, Micah Kiser). Green Bay had one,
Christian Kirksey, who has already been released.

Tackling: This may sound dumb, but it’s very real. Tackling
is extremely important to the Staley defense. As much as it
may drive Packers fans nuts after the lack of aggression shown
by Pettine and sometimes his players (see King, Kevin), Staley’s
approach (and ultimately likely to be Barry’s) will be to play
zone, rally up, and tackle prior to first-down yardage. There
will not be a ton of press-man coverage on the outside. This,
of course, requires the tackle to be completed successfully.
That leaves us with these important questions to answer:
“What does Green Bay have that will work?” and “What does
it need to get?”

Let’s briefly go position-by-position.

Defensive line: One of the biggest differences in the Staley
scheme is the subpackage system on the defensive line. In the
Pettine scheme (and in Capers’, for that matter), if Green Bay
was in nickel, there would be two defensive linemen on the
field, two EDGEs, and two linebackers. That’s not necessarily
the case with this scheme.

Oftentimes, the Rams used a single linebacker behind their
Eagle front. His responsibilities would be shared by the
safeties that were playing closer to the line of scrimmage than
on almost any other team.

No longer do the Packers covet the traditional 6’6” 5-tech who
can two-gap. This will likely be a one-gap system, and upfield
penetration is king.

Green Bay will need to deepen their defensive line. The good
news is they’ve got two players who will fit in perfectly. Kenny
Clark can play the nose position or the 4i. Kingsley Keke
profiles as an excellent penetrating 4i.

It’s very difficult to project Dean Lowry into the Staley/Fangio
scheme. It’s also difficult to justify his place on the roster at
his current salary. The Packers are going to need development
from their bottom-roster defensive linemen and to make some
additions from around the league and in the draft.

Unfortunately for Green Bay, this is not a strong draft for
defensive linemen. NC State’s Alim McNeil could play the nose
and has at least some pass rush upside. Iowa’s Daviyon Nixon
is a potential 4i with rare movement skills. LSU’s Tyler Shelvin
is another interesting option at 0-tech.

Linebacker: Even suggesting this will drive Packers fans nuts,
but the Staley system doesn’t require an amazing set of inside
linebackers. One of the Rams’ more significant personnel
departures after the 2019 season was highly sought-after
linebacker Corey Littleton. Littleton was tied to the Packers
(mostly by fans) during the 2020 offseason. Despite his
departure (and despite less-than-stellar play from his
replacements), the Rams defense didn’t skip a beat. Rather,
they improved. Once again, the key to a great Green Bay
defense doesn’t necessarily mean a great “man in the middle.”
The Staley/Fangio scheme does an excellent job of keeping the
linebackers clean because of the alignment of the front five.

Therefore, the smaller, more athletic linebackers are just fine
for this system. Think more along the lines of Jeremiah Owusu-
Koramoa (Notre Dame), Jabril Cox (North Dakota State/LSU),
or Nick Bolton (Mizzou), rather than the bigger tanks like
Zaven Collins or Dylan Moses. Chaz Surratt from North
Carolina, a former quarterback, could also be a major upgrade
in pass coverage and blitzing.

Green Bay seems to be pleased long-term with its 2020
additions Kamal Martin and Krys Barnes, though there are
as many as nine or 10 top-100 options at the position. Both
Barnes and Martin figure to fit in just fine, but Green Bay may
eschew its use of a safety in a linebacker role a la Raven
Greene. It is not a position/tact often used by Staley.

Edge defender: This is the biggest difference roster-wise
between the Packers and the Rams and will be the most
interesting preference to pay attention to in this theoretical
scheme change. The Rams did not employ big EDGEs playing
that Wide-9 technique.

Leonard Floyd played the most snaps on the edge by far, and
he’s a thin (by football standards) 6’4” and 251 pounds. Justin
Hollins? 6’5” 248. Samson Ebukam? 6’3” 245. Obo Okoronkwo?
Same thing. 6’2” 253.

Mike Pettine loved big players on the outside, and so did Brian
Gutekunst. Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, and Rashan Gary
weigh 272, 265, and 277 pounds, respectively. While sentiment
often tilted toward lighter pass-rushers like the aforementioned
Okoronkwo, the Titans’ Harold Landry, or Carolina’s Brian
Burns in years past, the Packers instead brought in the beef.
So what now? That’s the big question. Do the Smiths and Gary
fit in? Note that Gary could be successful on the defensive line
in this scheme. Will Barry adjust his plan to fit his current
roster? Will the Packers start phasing in the lighter, faster,
more flexible rushers?

If the Packers are interested in adding one or two of those
players to the roster, there are options. Jayson Oweh from
Penn State is an even more athletic version of Hollins. Azeez
Ojulari from Georgia is a bursty speed rusher who would look
great in a Wide-9 technique. Ronnie Perkins (Oklahoma) and
Joseph Ossai (Texas) could play similar roles to Okoronkwo.
Pay attention to the decisions Green Bay makes at this position.

Defensive backs: Barry and Staley’s defense did two things
more than any other team in the league with their defensive
backs. One, they played with two-high safeties looks. Two,
they played those safeties closer to the line of scrimmage than
any other team in the league.

The strategy (and honestly, it defines the whole defense) is to
play light boxes on early downs and invite teams to run the
ball. By playing the safeties close to the line of scrimmage
and occupying the offensive line with the front five, the
linebackers and safeties are able to clean up quickly and keep
the offense behind the chains.

This puts stress on the safety group, and Los Angeles has had
some good ones. John Johnson III just signed a lucrative deal
with Cleveland after putting his work with the Rams on tape.
Taylor Rapp is a solid player and a very good tackler. That’s
really the key, too. Green Bay’s safeties are going to have to
be able to come down and tackle if they’re going to play this
“fake light box” technique defensively. Adrian Amos is a
perfect prototype for this position. Darnell Savage might
actually be a better fit at “Star” (nickel).

The corners will have to tackle, too (here’s looking at you,
Kevin King). There is a trade off to splitting the safeties. The
corners will be protected in mostly Cover-2 or 2-man looks.
Green Bay can also play some quarters. It won’t be often where
Green Bay’s corners are left completely on their own on an
island. Playmakers and good tacklers should be at a premium.

Trevon Moehrig would be an incredible addition to a Staley/
Fangio scheme. Christian Uphoff (Illinois State) is an
interesting small-school sleeper. At corner, Alabama’s Patrick
Surtain II is an exceptional tackler (and cornerback). So is
Northwestern’s Greg Newsome II. Jevon Holland (Oregon) and
Elijah Molden (Washington) are options at “Star.”

All the film study, reading, Zoom meetings, and phone calls
in the world won’t predict exactly what Joe Barry wants to
do. We know Matt LaFleur was impressed by the Rams and
Staley (and ultimately Barry). We know Barry has deep Fangio
roots. We also know that Barry wants to do his own thing.
“What we’re going to build here, we’re going to put our stamp
on it. You’re going to have to wait and see what that stamp is
going to be,” he said at his introductory press conference.

Strictly based on what the Rams did, the Packers have square
pegs and a few round holes. As mentioned, Lowry doesn’t
make a ton of sense. Kevin King would need to tackle better.
They’d need to get a lot deeper on the defensive line. Darnell
Savage would have to clean up his 29 missed tackles in two
years as well. Barry might prefer a completely different kind
of player on the edge altogether. Still, in the NFL you’re either
moving forward or moving backward. Barry’s defense is, if
nothing else, a new direction

Barry’s charge? Install Matt LaFleur’s “clear vision”
defensively. A “clear vision” is what LaFleur promised when
he opened up his search for a new defensive coordinator. What
that means is a little less than clear. “I don’t want to give the
answers to the test, so to speak,” said LaFleur of his search
for a coordinator. “There [are] certainly some characteristics
that are non-negotiable.”

Staley’s
approach (and ultimately likely to be Barry’s) will be to play
zone, rally up, and tackle prior to first-down yardage. There
will not be a ton of press-man coverage on the outside.

It’s very difficult to project Dean Lowry into the Staley/Fangio scheme.

the Packers instead brought in the beef.
So what now? That’s the big question. Do the Smiths and Gary
fit in? Note that Gary could be successful on the defensive line
in this scheme. Will Barry adjust his plan to fit his current
roster? Will the Packers start phasing in the lighter, faster,
more flexible rushers?

We also know that Barry wants to do his own thing.
“What we’re going to build here, we’re going to put our stamp
on it. You’re going to have to wait and see what that stamp is
going to be,” he said at his introductory press conference.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

14 Apr 2021 13:58

I very much hope this becomes more of a 1 gap system, and LaFleur's comments about being more aggressive would back that up.
It’s very difficult to project Dean Lowry into the Staley/Fangio scheme.
An interesting statement, considering the conversion to a 1 gap scheme. That actually fits Lowry better than the Capers/Pettine scheme. He is a better penetrator.

Yoop wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:19

he's the best young safety we've had in many years, and that includes Collins and Butler, and the last 6 games of 2020 when he was given more discretion to just play by instinct proves it, ya make a big deal about missed tackles when he actually had 75 tackles,

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:31

I could see the arguement that Savage is the best young safety the Packers have had. You didn't really start seeing Collins make a jump until his 3rd year (2007) but he still dropped so many interceptions. Collins dropped a bit in performance in 2008 (remember the Aaron Rouse over Nick Collins stupid rants?) And then Collins exploded in 2009 and 2010.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:37

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:31

I could see the arguement that Savage is the best young safety the Packers have had. You didn't really start seeing Collins make a jump until his 3rd year (2007) but he still dropped so many interceptions. Collins dropped a bit in performance in 2008 (remember the Aaron Rouse over Nick Collins stupid rants?) And then Collins exploded in 2009 and 2010.

To be fair, I always thought the early-career critiques of Collins were overblown and misguided. Yes, he dropped INTs. But he had good PDs and excellent advanced metric coverage grades. Like Top Ten coverage grades while fans were still chirping about him being a disappointment.

This was more of a fan perception thing--Collins was selected in the same draft that brought in Rodgers when fans were angry about that. He was considered by ESPN and other major outlets to be a reach by at least 2 rounds (despite Ozzie Newsome going on the record that the Ravens were going to select him).

TT was new and he made fans angry and they didn't trust him. So they insisted that Collins wasn't good enough until they literally couldn't make that argument anymore. But he was always good. The narrative of "TT wasted his entire first draft" because Rodgers was on the bench, Collins wasn't good enough, and Murphy busted his spine was too rich for Collins' play to overcome.

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:49

But more importantly, I am excited for the single gap attack of the Packers. After reading this though, I am questioning a bit more why we kept Preston and Dean. Just don't know if they are really fits here.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:37

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:31

I could see the arguement that Savage is the best young safety the Packers have had. You didn't really start seeing Collins make a jump until his 3rd year (2007) but he still dropped so many interceptions. Collins dropped a bit in performance in 2008 (remember the Aaron Rouse over Nick Collins stupid rants?) And then Collins exploded in 2009 and 2010.

To be fair, I always thought the early-career critiques of Collins were overblown and misguided. Yes, he dropped INTs. But he had good PDs and excellent advanced metric coverage grades. Like Top Ten coverage grades while fans were still chirping about him being a disappointment.

This was more of a fan perception thing--Collins was selected in the same draft that brought in Rodgers when fans were angry about that. He was considered by ESPN and other major outlets to be a reach by at least 2 rounds (despite Ozzie Newsome going on the record that the Ravens were going to select him).

TT was new and he made fans angry and they didn't trust him. So they insisted that Collins wasn't good enough until they literally couldn't make that argument anymore. But he was always good. The narrative of "TT wasted his entire first draft" because Rodgers was on the bench, Collins wasn't good enough, and Murphy busted his spine was too rich for Collins' play to overcome.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:55

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 07:49

But more importantly, I am excited for the single gap attack of the Packers. After reading this though, I am questioning a bit more why we kept Preston and Dean. Just don't know if they are really fits here.

I'm intrigued. I mean, on the DL we need bodies, and 23 says Dean actually penetrated better than he 2-gapped and i have no reason to disbelieve him.

I think Preston being an EDGE with a wider alignment is fine. Joe Barry coached Preston Smith before, so it will be interesting to see exactly how he was used.

What I'm interested in is that in the "Eagle Front," which we may initially use less of than the Rams because our DL is not deep, you have 2 EDGE and 3 DL meaning you're either rushing 5 or an EDGE (or a DL) is dropping into coverage.

I'd like to know how often the EDGEs in L.A. weren't moving forward. And if that's the case, you wonder how often our current "EDGE" players will be playing the 4i in passing situations rather than the OLB spot.

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 11:20

Yeah I really hope we don't utilize an edge in pass coverage. I think that is a dumb use of a person's ability. The BJ Raji pick 6 was fun. But it was once. Let the pass rushers do what we are paying them to do.

BSA wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 12:14

go pak go wrote: ↑

15 Apr 2021 11:20

Yeah I really hope we don't utilize an edge in pass coverage. I think that is a dumb use of a person's ability. The BJ Raji pick 6 was fun. But it was once. Let the pass rushers do what we are paying them to do.

This is one that drives Packerfans nuts, but there's a strategic advantage in doing it. In a 4-3, everybody knows what everybody is doing, while in a 3-4 alignment there is some ambiguity in terms of who is rushing/dropping on each play. If you take that away, you are eliminating one of the foundational tenets for using an odd front in the first place: Causing confusion along the OL, RBs and QB in terms of blocking responsibilities. The other reason they do it is to set a trap, both on the Raji play and others. IF the QB knows Preston is dropping, he may choose to target that RB/TE and the DC can have the safety prepared to jump it. You're laying a trap for the Trubisky's of the world

Pettine noted that if the QB knows for certain what you're doing, he'll pick it apart. That's why there is such a high premium on disguise. Understand why all DCs do it and why it really isn't a dumb move - but rather a tactic to make it harder on the offense. It forces them all to adjust on the fly and you're betting that not every offensive player will see it and react the same way every time. Any mistakes create an opening for a free rusher, the holy grail of pass defenses. Aaron Donald was part of the top defense in the NFL last year and guess what- he dropped into coverage on a bunch of plays. Yet DC Staley get the HC job and Barry was hired here - even though they dropped the best DT on the planet into coverage.

I'm reasonably sure that nothing I've written here will change Packer fans' views on the topic - but I tried to offer some insight into why pro coaches do something that fans find less than ideal. I also understand that many of you already know all of this - but still remain unhappy about it anyways.

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