Packers Huddle

If Williams is the guy that Guty really likes, I don't imagine he'd have an issue spending a draft pick on the kid. I think the question is HOW would he draft him? I don't think he's gonna spend 22 on Williams. But if he's there at 28 (whether or not we pick a WR at 22), I think he might.

We'll probably never find out because Guty might prefer one or two or three of the other guys more anyhow.

I tend to think that Guty is a "both/and" kind of draft guy. He's confident that he can get the talent in the draft to help in every crucial area of the team that I plans to help. If he wants two WRs, one OLineman, one TE, and a DT/Edge, that's what he's going to get. And he trusts that we have the coaching to turn those guys into players who will help us to win in 2022, even if most of them only have limited snaps.

Scott4Pack wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 09:47

If Williams is the guy that Guty really likes, I don't imagine he'd have an issue spending a draft pick on the kid. I think the question is HOW would he draft him? I don't think he's gonna spend 22 on Williams. But if he's there at 28 (whether or not we pick a WR at 22), I think he might.

We'll probably never find out because Guty might prefer one or two or three of the other guys more anyhow.

I tend to think that Guty is a "both/and" kind of draft guy. He's confident that he can get the talent in the draft to help in every crucial area of the team that I plans to help. If he wants two WRs, one OLineman, one TE, and a DT/Edge, that's what he's going to get. And he trusts that we have the coaching to turn those guys into players who will help us to win in 2022, even if most of them only have limited snaps.

good points. I just dont think Williams is going to be around at 22. Thats why i suggest we use assets to make sure we can grab him, if thats who Gutey loves.

Saw he had some legal issues, wonder what they are, too lazy to look at the moment.

But seems to check all the boxes other than that.

Drj820 wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 09:32

I would just say it depends on how the board falls. We dont have alot of money to go grab a difference maker, and we need a difference maker at the WR position. Could really use one on the DL, and need to start thinking about Amos replacements...all things we really need.

Now, whats better...8 new guys of various talents who can be sprinkled in as depth in the years to come...one or two eventually developing into servicable players...or say 4 or 5 new guys on the roster. 3 to 4 of them being quality depth for the years ahead and 1 of them being a bonifide stud who helps the team year one. Think Waddle, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Deebo. All guys who went at different places in the first round.

If there is not "that guy" in this draft...then your plan is probably best and is great. But if there is that guy, and we cant get him at 22...I think now is the time to use assets to go get who can help us win in 2022. Because currently we do not have the weapons at WR to win a SB. However, we do have the assets to obtain the weapons to win a SB by the time the season starts.

I dont think its the time to sit around and draft from our heels and bring in who is around at 22 and think about making them a good player over time. I would use the assets and get a good player right now for the 2022 season, if that player is around and obtainable.

If not, draft 8 or 9 guys and fill out the roster with labor that will pay dividends over time.

I get what you're saying. And I absolutely agree that it depends how the board falls.

I think I'm not doing a good job of communicating what I mean, based on some of the statements I bolded above.

First, at 22? I 100% agree I want a guy who can contribute in year one (even if that person is recovering from an ACL and will be a back half of the season guy because Jameson Williams is "that guy"). I specifically said that I hope to get 2 rookie starter-quality players from our first 4 picks. 100% I do. I'm not looking to add a bunch of guys that will help only over time, in a couple years.

But when you look at the list of guys there--yes, Jamar Chase was a dynamo. Chase and Waddle were top 10 picks. And people rightfully predicted they would help their teams immediately. But Jefferson was like the 5th WR taken. Deebo was taken in the second round. No one could have *known* that they were *that guy.*

Andy Herman looked at WRs picked in the first two rounds over the past 3 years and found that there were 33 players selected and 11 of them were starter-quality contributors in year one. A 1-in-3 chance. And while 5 or 6 of those guys came from the top 15 (which is an argument for trading up), 5 or 6 of them came from the next 45 picks. The point is, you can't *know* which guys are going to be That Guy because if you did, they'd go top ten or 15 every time.

And when I say we need depth, I don't mean we need 4 years of cheap depth while some guys develop into serviceable players. I mean we need guys who can step in THIS YEAR in a pinch, and the choice is draft picks or veteran minimum contracts to fill that out. Last year we had among the deepest rosters I'd been a fan of. This year we managed to retain a lot of the front line guys, but Lucas Patrick and Billy Turner leaving mean we need OL depth. MVS and EQ leaving mean we need WR depth. Kevin King and Oren Burks (I can't believe I'm saying this) leaving means we need CB and ILB depth.

The issue we have now is that if a couple top-line players get hurt, the dropoff isn't from a great player to an average player, it's from a great player to nothing. It's true of our DL with Kenny Clark, of our ILBs with Campbell, of our slot defenders with Jaire, of our edge defenders with Gary, of our safeties with Amos, of our OTs.We're looking at being one player injury away from oblivion at a number of places.

So I think that if we get a starting WR in the draft, it would still be nice to have 3 picks in the first two rounds to get, say, a slot defender who could play as a rookie, an edge defender who can at least be a pass rush specialist as a rookie, a DL who can rotate in from day one (pretty rare), an ILB who can challenge for the starting role next to Campbell.

I'm not talking about filling out the depth chart down the line, exclusively; obviously that helps, too. I'm talking about filling out IMMEDIATE needs that lie just below the surface of our starting lineups on both sides of the ball, not to mention STs help. And I think we have a TON of holes in those spots. Not down the line; to get through this season knowing that injuries will happen.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 10:53

Andy Herman looked at WRs picked in the first two rounds over the past 3 years and found that there were 33 players selected and 11 of them were starter-quality contributors in year one. A 1-in-3 chance. And while 5 or 6 of those guys came from the top 15 (which is an argument for trading up), 5 or 6 of them came from the next 45 picks. The point is, you can't *know* which guys are going to be That Guy because if you did, they'd go top ten or 15 every time.

In a macro sense, you can't argue with the stats, but I also think we present a pretty unique situation for a rookie receiver/s to come in and contribute because the cupboard is so bare.

NCF wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 11:02

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 10:53

Andy Herman looked at WRs picked in the first two rounds over the past 3 years and found that there were 33 players selected and 11 of them were starter-quality contributors in year one. A 1-in-3 chance. And while 5 or 6 of those guys came from the top 15 (which is an argument for trading up), 5 or 6 of them came from the next 45 picks. The point is, you can't *know* which guys are going to be That Guy because if you did, they'd go top ten or 15 every time.

In a macro sense, you can't argue with the stats, but I also think we present a pretty unique situation for a rookie receiver/s to come in and contribute because the cupboard is so bare.

i would just say that my stance in this conversation is that we should do what needs to be done to secure someone who can come in and be ready to ball. It is Guteys job to identify this person. Many GMs honestly arent great at drafting. Gutey has shown he can hit homeruns in the early rounds. He needs to be able to identify the player that will hit, and he needs to do what he can to get that player. After all, due to moving Adams, he has the capital to make that happen.

If the player he identifies is going to be around at 22, great! If he would be around at 35, great! move back!
But i think there is going to be a run on WR talent and he needs to not be cautious or shy about being very aggressive, and even loose with some picks in order to go get that identified guy.

It may not be required, im just saying the goal should be to get the guy, not hold on to every pick and bring in 8 new guys.

Drj820 wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 11:09

NCF wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 11:02

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 10:53

Andy Herman looked at WRs picked in the first two rounds over the past 3 years and found that there were 33 players selected and 11 of them were starter-quality contributors in year one. A 1-in-3 chance. And while 5 or 6 of those guys came from the top 15 (which is an argument for trading up), 5 or 6 of them came from the next 45 picks. The point is, you can't *know* which guys are going to be That Guy because if you did, they'd go top ten or 15 every time.

In a macro sense, you can't argue with the stats, but I also think we present a pretty unique situation for a rookie receiver/s to come in and contribute because the cupboard is so bare.

i would just say that my stance in this conversation is that we should do what needs to be done to secure someone who can come in and be ready to ball. It is Guteys job to identify this person. Many GMs honestly arent great at drafting. Gutey has shown he can hit homeruns in the early rounds. He needs to be able to identify the player that will hit, and he needs to do what he can to get that player. After all, due to moving Adams, he has the capital to make that happen.

If the player he identifies is going to be around at 22, great! If he would be around at 35, great! move back!
But i think there is going to be a run on WR talent and he needs to not be cautious or shy about being very aggressive, and even loose with some picks in order to go get that identified guy.

It may not be required, im just saying the goal should be to get the guy, not hold on to every pick and bring in 8 new guys.

Remember, it takes 2 to tango. Other teams have to be willing to trade with us. Not always on Gutey to make it happen.

paco wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 11:15

Drj820 wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 11:09

NCF wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 11:02

In a macro sense, you can't argue with the stats, but I also think we present a pretty unique situation for a rookie receiver/s to come in and contribute because the cupboard is so bare.

i would just say that my stance in this conversation is that we should do what needs to be done to secure someone who can come in and be ready to ball. It is Guteys job to identify this person. Many GMs honestly arent great at drafting. Gutey has shown he can hit homeruns in the early rounds. He needs to be able to identify the player that will hit, and he needs to do what he can to get that player. After all, due to moving Adams, he has the capital to make that happen.

If the player he identifies is going to be around at 22, great! If he would be around at 35, great! move back!
But i think there is going to be a run on WR talent and he needs to not be cautious or shy about being very aggressive, and even loose with some picks in order to go get that identified guy.

It may not be required, im just saying the goal should be to get the guy, not hold on to every pick and bring in 8 new guys.

Remember, it takes 2 to tango. Other teams have to be willing to trade with us. Not always on Gutey to make it happen.

the chiefs are going to tango with someone and use the loot from the Hill trade to try to jump us I feel. They will probably targeting someone we want. I hope we continue to not give up on going after the guy we want.

I think we could narrow down what some of you guys are saying about trading to draft sooner for the guy.

Guty might never have a better time to trade up.

You guys have already covered the details. So the only question is whether Guty believes enough in somebody that he would trade up. Past experience has shown that he’s willing, if the guy and the deal are right.

Scott4Pack wrote: ↑

30 Mar 2022 04:57

I think we could narrow down what some of you guys are saying about trading to draft sooner for the guy.

Guty might never have a better time to trade up.

You guys have already covered the details. So the only question is whether Guty believes enough in somebody that he would trade up. Past experience has shown that he’s willing, if the guy and the deal are right.

Agreed.

And I don't think there is that guy in this year's draft to be honest. Which is why I don't want to trade up.

Scott4Pack wrote: ↑

30 Mar 2022 04:57

I think we could narrow down what some of you guys are saying about trading to draft sooner for the guy.

Guty might never have a better time to trade up.

You guys have already covered the details. So the only question is whether Guty believes enough in somebody that he would trade up. Past experience has shown that he’s willing, if the guy and the deal are right.

Pretty much what I've been thinking throughout this convo. If Gute has shown anything, it has been a willingness to trade up/down to get after a player and maximize value. If, for whatever reason, it doesn't happen this year, I think we can rule out Gute pulled a TT. Aggressiveness during the draft is one thing Gute has in spades.

go pak go wrote: ↑

30 Mar 2022 05:43

Scott4Pack wrote: ↑

30 Mar 2022 04:57

I think we could narrow down what some of you guys are saying about trading to draft sooner for the guy.

Guty might never have a better time to trade up.

You guys have already covered the details. So the only question is whether Guty believes enough in somebody that he would trade up. Past experience has shown that he’s willing, if the guy and the deal are right.

Agreed.

And I don't think there is that guy in this year's draft to be honest. Which is why I don't want to trade up.

see I tend to think it's the opposite, this class has 4 to 6 receivers all worthy of first round status, and a half doz more with second round grades, what I think might be throwing us off is all the edge talented rushers, take 3 or 4 of them out of this picture and there would be a few more receivers with first round grades, it's sorta like not seeing the forest because of all the tree's.

Yoop wrote: ↑

30 Mar 2022 06:24

go pak go wrote: ↑

30 Mar 2022 05:43

Scott4Pack wrote: ↑

30 Mar 2022 04:57

I think we could narrow down what some of you guys are saying about trading to draft sooner for the guy.

Guty might never have a better time to trade up.

You guys have already covered the details. So the only question is whether Guty believes enough in somebody that he would trade up. Past experience has shown that he’s willing, if the guy and the deal are right.

Agreed.

And I don't think there is that guy in this year's draft to be honest. Which is why I don't want to trade up.

see I tend to think it's the opposite, this class has 4 to 6 receivers all worthy of first round status, and a half doz more with second round grades, what I think might be throwing us off is all the edge talented rushers, take 3 or 4 of them out of this picture and there would be a few more receivers with first round grades, it's sorta like not seeing the forest because of all the tree's.

If there are 4 to 6 receivers with a 1st round grade, then we should have no problem until waiting at 22 or 28 to get our guy. I don't think there are any top 10 WRs in this draft. I also don't think there is much of top 15 in this draft that I love. The only two I really love both have ACL injuries.

Other positions being deep, like edge, are not a variable when I consider "is this guy a first round grade". You can be a 2nd round guy and be drafted or mocked in the first because of supply and demand.

I fell in love with the 2020 WR's. Particularly Jefferson and Mims (I was wrong about Mims). I only really have that love with Williams this year; although Olave does look to be very fluid and shifty. I'd be happy if we get him at 22.

I'm not against taking a WR with our 1st round pick. I'm against using significant draft capital to move up "just to check the box". I don't think there is anyone I would trade up for in this draft if I'm being perfectly honest - unless Wilson falls outside the top 15.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

28 Mar 2022 22:21

Drj820 wrote: ↑

28 Mar 2022 19:00

Unless there is a safety, a DLmen, or a WR sitting there in reach for 3 of our first 4 picks, what good does it do to stay put and snag 4 players on a team that only has like 2 holes? I’d be happy to package picks and leap up and get somebody who can fill a hole in 2022 if the situation is Right...and the guys we have our eyes on are getting scooped up while we wait

I guess there's a slight difference in philosophy here, but more importantly, I think we view the roster differently.

I think this roster has a TON of holes, but very few of them are for starters.

We need a starting WR1. We need a deep threat WR. We need a second starting-caliber ILB. We need one or two rotational DLinemen. We need a RT/G depth with starting potential. We need slot defender depth. We need safety depth. We need a better return man. We need a developmental Y-TE to take over for Lewis and/or Tonyan in a year. We need EDGE depth.

Most of those are rotational, depth pieces, or role players. But you need those to get through a season. And I think we have plenty of room to improve all of those things.

Fortunately for us, rotational, role players, depth, and STs are PERFECT to find in the draft. That's exactly what MOST rookies are good for. Sure, a FEW rookies win starting jobs and perform admirably. If you get two or three in a draft you've done well.

So yeah, we only need to fill two BIG starting-caliber holes. And we can expect/hope to fill those with 4 early draft picks. But we also have a ton of lesser needs that can either remain depth pieces and role players or that can start out there as rookies and develop into more useful players.

And we can fill those positions out at minimum salaries through the draft. And that's what guys like myself and @go pak go are talking about when we say the state of this roster merits using more picks rather than packaging them.

I don't think we can plug every hole but we do have to address 3 gaping holes here: WR, TE and ILB. I would think these will be the focus in this upcoming draft and Gute uses at least half of his first 4 picks to fix 2 of these needs. We recently got a rotational DL in Reed so unless one falls in our lap in the draft this isn't as big a need as it once was. We could add EDGE depth by resigning Mercilus on the cheap. The other holes we can fill later on the draft. This doesn't appear to be a great TE class so perhaps this hole can be filled later on too.

Drj820 wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 09:47

go pak go wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 09:36

Drj820 wrote: ↑

29 Mar 2022 09:32

I would just say it depends on how the board falls. We dont have alot of money to go grab a difference maker, and we need a difference maker at the WR position. Could really use one on the DL, and need to start thinking about Amos replacements...all things we really need.

Now, whats better...8 new guys of various talents who can be sprinkled in as depth in the years to come...one or two eventually developing into servicable players...or say 4 or 5 new guys on the roster. 3 to 4 of them being quality depth for the years ahead and 1 of them being a bonifide stud who helps the team year one. Think Waddle, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Deebo. All guys who went at different places in the first round.

If there is not "that guy" in this draft...then your plan is probably best and is great. But if there is that guy, and we cant get him at 22...I think now is the time to use assets to go get who can help us win in 2022. Because currently we do not have the weapons at WR to win a SB. However, we do have the assets to obtain the weapons to win a SB by the time the season starts.

I dont think its the time to sit around and draft from our heels and bring in who is around at 22 and think about making them a good player over time. I would use the assets and get a good player right now for the 2022 season, if that player is around and obtainable.

If not, draft 8 or 9 guys and fill out the roster with labor that will pay dividends over time.

I mean we have enough information to start putting names and draft compensation to do it rather than speaking high level "would ifs". We can be in reality.

Who is the guy you would do it for and how hard would you go get him?

If Jameson Williams is on the board after #15....I would be okay if we chased him hard. I'd give up a 3rd and another pick if a team #16 on down would want to deal. But that's probably about it.

I dont think WIlliams or Burks will be around at 22. I would do what needs to be done to secure either. If Gutey is feeling really perky he can jump up and go grab Garrett Wilson.

Olave may even be gone by 22. I predict a run on WRs similar to the draft a year or two ago. This run is because of their importance in modern football, their readiness to contribute...but more importantly...the rates they are now demanding in their second contracts. Teams need guys who can contribute for 4 years and then they can go somewhere else. We have to find someone who can help in 2022. We should do what needs to be done to secure that asset.

Yes, if Olave or Wilson are around after #15 we do have the draft capital to try and move up. Last week Gute went to Ohio State's pro day to get a look at these 2 young men so there has to be interest there.

Let us not forget that back in 2014 Adams was the 53rd player taken (but it took him a couple of years to become the player he is today).

By now, the "prime" FA players are all gone. So we have the draft and what's left of FA to find a viable WR. I'm thinking about what might happen. Some choices I'm thinking of:

a. Guty finds a WR who has a special revelation to go to Green Bay (almost like Reggie White hearing from God). Guty manages to give a way a hefty amount in trade, but not so much as we might suspect and is credited with a bargain.
b. Guty trades outright for a WR1 who is willing to forego much pay in 2022 so that he fits in the cap. The WR wants a ring!
c. Guty finds a "bubble" WR who hasn't really burst into a starting role yet, but the Packers only give up a 2nd day draft pick.
d. Guty trades one of our new round 1/2 picks and a player for a viable WR1.
e. Guty drafts 2 or 3 WRs. Then, he signs an over the hill veteran (or Julio Jones).
f. Other...

I put my trust in Guty!
:-)

Well, he did find Rasul Douglas and Campbell so if anyone can find a player that is a poor fit or is unhappy on another team, it would be Gute.

And then we have Nijman, a PS player for a couple of years, a player with perfect size and good quickness but really raw. Gute saw something and stuck with him and now the Packers have 3 starting OT's. There is a WR or a slot receiver somewhere on somebody's PS that just needs an opportunity and patience, just like Nijman did.

It can happen but more likely the Packers find their man in the draft. Actually 2 men, a WR and a slot. Because Cobb has seriously lost speed and quickness and it appears that A. Rodgers never had either.

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

31 Mar 2022 03:08

It can happen but more likely the Packers find their man in the draft. Actually 2 men, a WR and a slot. Because Cobb has seriously lost speed and quickness and it appears that A. Rodgers never had either.

I am going to be optimistic that A Rodgers will be productive this year. He will be training hard all off-season. That includes his hands, which I think are the worst part of it all. I think he’s gonna work out.

I just popped in here once again to re-assert that I cannot explain clearly enough how blatantly obvious it is to me that Sammy Watkins should be a Packer this year.

I know he'll probably get hurt at some point, because he does that. But good grief, he's the ideal fit right now.