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Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 10 Dec 2023 13:31
by Pckfn23
Here's the unfortunate part, there is no easy way to find out a player's record when his defense gives up X points. Unless someone wants to put in a massive amount of work, Raptors claims cannot be verified.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 10 Dec 2023 13:45
by Drj820
As I’ve said for a while now…Aaron Rodgers was a good quarterback.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 10 Dec 2023 14:01
by go pak go
Huh. I take my Brady assessment back.
I must have had a limited data set or something because I counted 22 INTs whereas Pckfn23's data set is showing 40 INTs. That is a major difference.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 10 Dec 2023 14:12
by Pckfn23
go pak go wrote: ↑10 Dec 2023 14:01
Huh. I take my Brady assessment back.
I must have had a limited data set or something because I counted 22 INTs whereas Pckfn23's data set is showing 40 INTs. That is a major difference.
He was not great his last handful of years. That does move the needle a bit.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 11 Dec 2023 13:00
by BSA
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2023 13:31
Here's the unfortunate part, there is no easy way to find out a player's record when his defense gives up X points.
Not exactly what you're looking for but the Athletic put this graphic together
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 11 Dec 2023 15:09
by BF004
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2023 13:31
Here's the unfortunate part, there is no easy way to find out a player's record when his defense gives up X points. Unless someone wants to put in a massive amount of work, Raptors claims cannot be verified.
I could grab that.
What are we all looking for? Rating, wins, losses, stats in games def gives up 30 or more?
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 11 Dec 2023 15:20
by Pckfn23
BF004 wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 15:09
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2023 13:31
Here's the unfortunate part, there is no easy way to find out a player's record when his defense gives up X points. Unless someone wants to put in a massive amount of work, Raptors claims cannot be verified.
I could grab that.
What are we all looking for? Rating, wins, losses, stats in games def gives up 30 or more?
Player W/L when their defense gives up X number of points.
I even went so far as to email Pro Football Reference and they do not have the ability to do so other than go into each players' profile and calculate it "by hand." If you do, that would be awesome!
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 11 Dec 2023 15:57
by BF004
I’ve talked about the nflfastr package on r before.
Basically just scrapes pfr’s detailed play by play data, so you can get anything pretty much.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 11 Dec 2023 16:45
by BSA
Love has shown nice progress so far- no substitute for game reps and he's clearly picked up a lot from sitting behind an AR
More and stiffer tests await him in December and January
Once he gets to March, I sincerely hope Love learns HOW to chug a beer better than his predecessor.
Maybe Bak can help him work on his fundamentals
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 11 Dec 2023 17:17
by BF004
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 15:20
BF004 wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 15:09
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2023 13:31
Here's the unfortunate part, there is no easy way to find out a player's record when his defense gives up X points. Unless someone wants to put in a massive amount of work, Raptors claims cannot be verified.
I could grab that.
What are we all looking for? Rating, wins, losses, stats in games def gives up 30 or more?
Player W/L when their defense gives up X number of points.
I even went so far as to email Pro Football Reference and they do not have the ability to do so other than go into each players' profile and calculate it "by hand." If you do, that would be awesome!
Can you get it from here?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... yxEgE/edit
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 11 Dec 2023 18:14
by Pckfn23
BF004 wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 17:17
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 15:20
BF004 wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 15:09
I could grab that.
What are we all looking for? Rating, wins, losses, stats in games def gives up 30 or more?
Player W/L when their defense gives up X number of points.
I even went so far as to email Pro Football Reference and they do not have the ability to do so other than go into each players' profile and calculate it "by hand." If you do, that would be awesome!
Can you get it from here?
I think so, thanks. Mind sharing it with me? PMed email.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 08:43
by BF004
In case anyone wants to give this a whirl and play the coding.
Code: Select all
install.packages("tidyverse", type = "binary")
install.packages("nflfastR", type = "binary")
library(tidyverse)
library(nflfastR)
df <- load_pbp(2007)
i = 2008
for (i in 2008:2023) {
temp <- load_pbp(i)
df <- rbind(df, temp)
i = i + 1
}
colnames(df)
head(df,5)
df1 <- df %>% filter(home_team == posteam, !is.na(passer_player_name),
qb_kneel == 0, qb_spike == 0) %>%
group_by(game_id, home_team, home_score, away_score, passer_player_name) %>%
summarize(Plays = n(),
QB_EPA = sum(qb_epa),
TD = sum(pass_touchdown),
INT = sum(interception),
YARDS_ALL = sum(yards_gained),
ATT = sum(pass_attempt),
COMP = sum(complete_pass),
SACKS = sum(sack)) %>%
mutate(TEAM = home_team,
WIN = ifelse(home_score > away_score, 1, 0)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
select(-home_team)
df2 <- df %>% filter(away_team == posteam, !is.na(passer_player_name),
qb_kneel == 0, qb_spike == 0) %>%
group_by(game_id, away_team, home_score, away_score, passer_player_name) %>%
summarize(Plays = n(),
QB_EPA = sum(qb_epa),
TD = sum(pass_touchdown),
INT = sum(interception),
YARDS_ALL = sum(yards_gained),
ATT = sum(pass_attempt),
COMP = sum(complete_pass),
SACKS = sum(sack)) %>%
mutate(TEAM = away_team,
WIN = ifelse(away_score > home_score, 1, 0)) %>%
ungroup() %>%
select(-away_team)
df3 <- union(df1, df2) %>% arrange(game_id)
write.table(df3, "clipboard-12800", sep="\t", row.names=FALSE)
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 16:39
by MY_TAKE
ONe thing I would like to see Jordon Love work on/improve is rolling right and throwing on the run. It seems like a lot of flutter balls that are not the most accurate. I would like to see his fast ball more on occasion anywhere, anytime when its called for. For whatever reason (mechanics ?) the football isn't always coming out of his hand well. Just something I think can and needs to get better.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 17:13
by go pak go
MY_TAKE wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 16:39
ONe thing I would like to see Jordon Love work on/improve is rolling right and throwing on the run. It seems like a lot of flutter balls that are not the most accurate. I would like to see his fast ball more on occasion anywhere, anytime when its called for. For whatever reason (mechanics ?) the football isn't always coming out of his hand well. Just something I think can and needs to get better.
And he can absolutely do it. He was throwing darts in the 4th quarter. Why didn't he do that in the first 3 quarters?
One theory I have is kept overthrowing guys in the 1st quarter and I wonder if that got to his head so then he tried to "touch it" or loft it and we saw ducks as a result.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 17:35
by Raptorman
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 15:20
BF004 wrote: ↑11 Dec 2023 15:09
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑10 Dec 2023 13:31
Here's the unfortunate part, there is no easy way to find out a player's record when his defense gives up X points. Unless someone wants to put in a massive amount of work, Raptors claims cannot be verified.
I could grab that.
What are we all looking for? Rating, wins, losses, stats in games def gives up 30 or more?
Player W/L when their defense gives up X number of points.
I even went so far as to email Pro Football Reference and they do not have the ability to do so other than go into each players' profile and calculate it "by hand." If you do, that would be awesome!
Already did it. For more than one QB. How do you think I came up with my numbers? Most people don't want to see it.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 17:43
by Raptorman
Haven't updated it. Give me a list of QB's you want to see and I'll do it.
- image.png (787.97 KiB) Viewed 584 times
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 17:50
by MY_TAKE
Raptorman wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 17:43
Haven't updated it. Give me a list of QB's you want to see and I'll do it. image.png
So what conclusion have you drawn from this?
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 17:53
by Raptorman
MY_TAKE wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 17:50
Raptorman wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 17:43
Haven't updated it. Give me a list of QB's you want to see and I'll do it. image.png
So what conclusion have you drawn from this?
Compare it to the QBs win loss record. Give me some qbs I’ll do them and put their total win loss record. If you notice, most QBs run around 90% win rate when the defense gives up 18 points or less. This is what I’m talking about with Purdy. It’s a lot easier to win when you don’t have to score. Granted, he appears to be, but let’s see what happens when he “has” to.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 18:15
by BF004
Raptorman wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 17:53
MY_TAKE wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 17:50
Raptorman wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 17:43
Haven't updated it. Give me a list of QB's you want to see and I'll do it. image.png
So what conclusion have you drawn from this?
Compare it to the QBs win loss record. Give me some qbs I’ll do them and put their total win loss record. If you notice, most QBs run around 90% win rate when the defense gives up 18 points or less. This is what I’m talking about with Purdy. It’s a lot easier to win when you don’t have to score. Granted, he appears to be, but let’s see what happens when he “has” to.
But what have you found? What are you trying to show?
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 12 Dec 2023 18:28
by Raptorman
BF004 wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 18:15
Raptorman wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 17:53
MY_TAKE wrote: ↑12 Dec 2023 17:50
So what conclusion have you drawn from this?
Compare it to the QBs win loss record. Give me some qbs I’ll do them and put their total win loss record. If you notice, most QBs run around 90% win rate when the defense gives up 18 points or less. This is what I’m talking about with Purdy. It’s a lot easier to win when you don’t have to score. Granted, he appears to be, but let’s see what happens when he “has” to.
But what have you found? What are you trying to show?
This isn't rocket science. If you look, almost all QB's win at around 90% when the defense gives up 18 points or less. All of them. Well, the average QB. But how many games they have when that happens had an impact on their W/L record. Look at Brady, 50% of his games his defense gave up 18 points or less. Who else is close? Big Ben. Steve Young, Joe Montana. Rodgers was 41% the last time I did him. Now, look at Cousins, 25%. Brady has almost the same percentage of games under 18 PPG as Cousins has total of games under 25 ppg. Now look at the win percentage of games at 26-32 points per game. Most of these QB would be considered good based on their win-loss record alone. But this is where you see the difference between good QB's and average QB. BTW, Mahomes kills everyone in this range.
I'm going to do a new one that is up to date as of today. Mahomes, Rodgers, Cousin, (because I can) Brady, Prescott, Love, and Purdy. If anyone wants another QB added, let me know who. May take me a day.