Packers Huddle

So why does that make Brady not as good as we think he is?

Yeah, I don't think you can jump to the conclusions you are based upon that simple metric.

If a QB throws a lot of INT's, giving the opposition more scoring opportunities, that's not a reflection of being a victim of a poor defense. Same with 3-and-outs. Any number of things.

I think you'd have to measure much more than points allowed to make the claims you are, although I think it's probably an intuitive truth to say a QB playing on a team with a good defense gets said QB a better Win-Loss record. Like, yeah.

What stood out to me in that data set is Brady has far and away the best win% when his team gives up 26+ points. I would think that would mean Brady is just as good as we thought he was.

New set. I put Starr and Tarkenton in there. Starr before Lombardi and after. And Fran before Grant and after. Once again, I'm not saying Brady wasn't good. But the fact that 73% of his games the defense held the other team to 25 points or less. But then you have to wonder about Josh Allen. So far 81% of his games are like that and he can't get to the Super Bowl. And Mahomes is the most impressive on the list. With 73% wins in the 26-32 points category. If Rodgers had that 50% of the game in the 18 or less ppg, that Brady has, his record, based on his win percentage in that category would be 103-9, not 78-7. That 12% is worth another 30 games.

Think of it this way. If Kirk Cousins had the same percentage of games where the defense only gave up 18 ppg or less like Purdy, his record, based on his win % in those games, in that category would be 78-9. That's 42 more games won. This is what I'm talking about when I talk about QBs with good defenses. Look at Starr and Fran before and after Good coaching with a good defense.

Okay, I've added a few QBs and taken a few out. Some of the new guys are ones that for one reason or another may not be considered worth keeping. Trubisky, Mayfield was kicked out of Cleveland, Kyler Murray. A bust? Well, look at the numbers. The percentage between the colors is those two added up. If you notice how much of a higher percentage in the upper PPG some of these guys have. And remember how much that 12% cost from my last post. This is why defense is important. And yeah, none of these guys have high INT percentages.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

14 Dec 2023 08:10

Stafford should be blitzed every play.

I would think most of us are pretty happy with Love and his development this season. I think we have someone we can win with if we surround him with a decent running game and a defense that isn't in prevent all the time.

I'm happier with Love now than I was, I know more about him, but I still have questions.

First, he's absolutely shown me, he's good enough to be at least a decent enough QB we can win with if we play the right kind of football. I don't think he'll take a &%$@ team to the NFCCG yet, but we don't need a QB like that either if we actually build a team.

He has shown some stuff that makes me think, Damn, this kid could be really, really good and maybe elevate us a level or 2 thru his arm, but not with the consistency to give me confidence. Yet.

The part that doesn't give me the confidence, on one hand I know, there's no substitute for playing and stressful situations, no matter what situation usually cause the person to revert to what is natural or what they always knew to do. and I see that in his footwork and throwing sometimes,b ut not all the time.

It's almost reversed for me. When he tries to be too relaxed or too cool, or just play the game type mentality, his feet go wonky, his throws go errant. But it's better than it was earlier this year. So he's improved. and he seems a bit more on "edge" he is more decisive and sets and zings it. and it's usually better.

So while I think 3 years in, a lot of the mechanics and things should have been worked on, I can see what wasn't that good, getting better. If he cleans that up and is consistent down to down, game to game, we have ourselves one heck of a QB. That's all I have left to check in the boxes to convince myself of that.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

19 Dec 2023 08:19

Yeah, but can Love score TDs from 1yd out behind the best O-line while being pushed from behind by two brutes?

#checkmate

APB wrote: ↑

19 Dec 2023 12:17

Yeah, but can Love score TDs from 1yd out behind the best O-line while being pushed from behind by two brutes?

#checkmate

Does not need to. Let Dillon take the snap and put Caleb Jones and Luke Tenuta in the backfield.

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

19 Dec 2023 12:47

APB wrote: ↑

19 Dec 2023 12:17

Yeah, but can Love score TDs from 1yd out behind the best O-line while being pushed from behind by two brutes?

#checkmate

Does not need to. Let Dillon take the snap and put Caleb Jones and Luke Tenuta in the backfield.

a little creativity and playing to players strengths can go a long way

Raptorman wrote: ↑

12 Dec 2023 20:27

New set. I put Starr and Tarkenton in there. Starr before Lombardi and after. And Fran before Grant and after. Once again, I'm not saying Brady wasn't good. But the fact that 73% of his games the defense held the other team to 25 points or less. But then you have to wonder about Josh Allen. So far 81% of his games are like that and he can't get to the Super Bowl. And Mahomes is the most impressive on the list. With 73% wins in the 26-32 points category. If Rodgers had that 50% of the game in the 18 or less ppg, that Brady has, his record, based on his win percentage in that category would be 103-9, not 78-7. That 12% is worth another 30 games.

Think of it this way. If Kirk Cousins had the same percentage of games where the defense only gave up 18 ppg or less like Purdy, his record, based on his win % in those games, in that category would be 78-9. That's 42 more games won. This is what I'm talking about when I talk about QBs with good defenses. Look at Starr and Fran before and after Good coaching with a good defense.

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I was bored so I firgured I would bring this up again. The only thing I agree with is sort of a no brainer. If your defense is good and gives up fewer points you will have a better winning percentage. Not really rocket science there.

That fact doesn't diminish Purdys abilities or make him overrated, which was your statement. I can admit it makes it easier to be successful as a QB having a good defense behind you, but when your #1 in total QBR that is totally diminishing what he has done. If you would have said he has more offensive weapons I probably would have let that go. He does have good to great weapons on offense. He has had many good to great games already and very few bad ones. Thats not an accident and its not just because of his defense. BTW, Jordon Love rates fairly well here all things considered. This is Total QBR. The best stat I know of to rate a QB



2023 Regular Season
RK
NAME
1

Brock Purdy
SF
2

Dak Prescott
DAL
3

Josh Allen
BUF
4

Patrick Mahomes
KC
5

Justin Herbert
LAC
6

Kirk Cousins
MIN
7

Matthew Stafford
LAR
8

Lamar Jackson
BAL
9

Trevor Lawrence
JAX
10

Jalen Hurts
PHI
11

Tua Tagovailoa
MIA
12

Jared Goff
DET
13

Jordan Love
GB
14

Gardner Minshew
IND
15

Geno Smith
SEA
16

C.J. Stroud
HOU
17

Baker Mayfield
TB
18

Joe Burrow
CIN
19

Joshua Dobbs
ARI/MIN
20

Russell Wilson
DEN
21

Derek Carr
NO
22

Sam Howell
WSH
23

Justin Fields
CHI
24

Desmond Ridder
ATL
25

Kenny Pickett
PIT
26

Mac Jones
NE
27

Will Levis
TEN
28

Bryce Young
CAR
29

Zach Wilson
NYJ
POS
GP

MY_TAKE wrote: ↑

20 Dec 2023 06:43

I was bored so I firgured I would bring this up again. The only thing I agree with is sort of a no brainer. If your defense is good and gives up fewer points you will have a better winning percentage. Not really rocket science there.

Let us know when Purdy has more than 10 games where he has to score more than 25 points to win. See, it's easy to play QB when your team is always up, but not so easy when you are playing from behind. FWIW, Love has at least 6 games like that so far this year. Purdy has 2 in the last 2.

Haven't paid too much attention, but, now that I looked, SF's record is interesting. Five wins, three losses, six wins.

As regards "Let us know when Purdy has more than 10 games where he has to score more than 25 points to win", the lowest point production in the first batch is 30, the lowest in the recent run is 27. So, while he didn't NEED to score more than 25, he did. Mostly, just sayin'.

The three losses ALL had SF at 17.

Somewhat confused on the playing from behind (Love with 6, Purdy with 2). One, all things being equal, if someone meets the challenge laid out, and it's his more recent performances, I'd think he get a gold star. Two, while he technically was playing from behind the last two weeks, we're talking about only in the first quarter, and then never by more than a score. Was there a different point you were making?

Finally, as with a lot of discussion surrounding the college game and its rankings, the point that a team can only beat the teams it plays rings true. 11-3 is pretty good, regardless. I personally hope Purdy doesn't continue to win as he has been, but the point is that he has been.

Raptorman wrote: ↑

20 Dec 2023 09:45

MY_TAKE wrote: ↑

20 Dec 2023 06:43

I was bored so I firgured I would bring this up again. The only thing I agree with is sort of a no brainer. If your defense is good and gives up fewer points you will have a better winning percentage. Not really rocket science there.

Let us know when Purdy has more than 10 games where he has to score more than 25 points to win. See, it's easy to play QB when your team is always up, but not so easy when you are playing from behind. FWIW, Love has at least 6 games like that so far this year. Purdy has 2 in the last 2.

Let's get back to this then. You are dragging Purdy for not winning enough 25+ points games, but also dragged Brady for winning too many games where the defense held under 16, but at the same time Brady had far and away the best record when his defense gave up 26+?? I am not saying you are wrong that QBs need to be able to out duel the other offense at times, but at least be consistent.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

20 Dec 2023 10:07

Raptorman wrote: ↑

20 Dec 2023 09:45

MY_TAKE wrote: ↑

20 Dec 2023 06:43

I was bored so I firgured I would bring this up again. The only thing I agree with is sort of a no brainer. If your defense is good and gives up fewer points you will have a better winning percentage. Not really rocket science there.

Let us know when Purdy has more than 10 games where he has to score more than 25 points to win. See, it's easy to play QB when your team is always up, but not so easy when you are playing from behind. FWIW, Love has at least 6 games like that so far this year. Purdy has 2 in the last 2.

Let's get back to this then. You are dragging Purdy before not winning enough 25+ points games, but also dragged Brady for winning too many games where the defense held under 16, but at the same time Brady had far and away the best record when his defense gave up 26+?? I am not saying you are wrong that QBs need to be able to out duel the other offense at times, but at least be consistent.

Oh I think you are not understanding what I'm saying about Brady. Brady was good, I never said he wasn't. But when your defense gives up less than 18 ppg on average for almost 20 years you are going to have a better record and more wins than anyone. Can you imagine if the Packers defense did the same under Favre and Rodgers? Green Bay would have had probably the same amount of Super Bowls in that period.

And Purdy has yet to show he can outduel anyone. And the three times (I thought it was 2) he had to score more than 25 points to win? He had to outduel Jason Stidman, Kyler Murray, and Joe Burrow. Want to guess which one he lost to?

People think Tarkenton was a good QB in Minnesota under Grant. He just happened to be their starter. He was barely .500 in games between 19-24. And over 25? 9-64.

But, he's in the HOF.