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Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 05 Mar 2021 10:55
by YoHoChecko
NCF wrote:
05 Mar 2021 10:43
lupedafiasco wrote:
05 Mar 2021 10:41
That big board is insane.
Yeah, not good.
I just genuinely don't understand how you can mix "Big Board" with a team-specific alignment. You end up with weird things like this.

Like, what does it mean that Trevor Lawrence is on the team's Big Board at #1? But even more importantly, what does it mean that Trey Lance is #51? Is Landon Dickerson in the top 15 because we need a C? But how is he considered more valuable than Patrick Surtain?

It just doesn't work. You have to stack players' abilities regardless of needs and then see where need and value intersect. You can't try to stack guys where you add value based on need at some positions and discount others based on lack of need. The list just gets wild. Which is why I rarely participate much in the big board polls. I just don't know how it works. Like I would not put Trey lance on my board, period. There's no selection in the top 100 where I would draft a project QB for the Packers. But also making a Big Board without him on it makes no sense.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 05 Mar 2021 11:03
by paco
I get your point YoHo. These are all largely pointless exercises. I'm sure it's his attempt to weed out players that are no likely to be on the Packers board and put this in some sort of preference order. He didn't go into detail on the reasoning for each placement.

As for Lance, he must like him and feel he's worth developing. He did not that it would seem insane to most to have him on the same roster as Love.

I would like to see media people start putting together tiered boards for teams, as its truer to what actually happens. No team has a 1-100 list of guys. Well, the Jets or Lions might.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 05 Mar 2021 11:14
by YoHoChecko
paco wrote:
05 Mar 2021 11:03
I get your point YoHo. These are all largely pointless exercises. I'm sure it's his attempt to weed out players that are no likely to be on the Packers board and put this in some sort of preference order. He didn't go into detail on the reasoning for each placement.

As for Lance, he must like him and feel he's worth developing. He did not that it would seem insane to most to have him on the same roster as Love.

I would like to see media people start putting together tiered boards for teams, as its truer to what actually happens. No team has a 1-100 list of guys. Well, the Jets or Lions might.
I mean, actually, lots of teams do. Lots of teams put a grade on every player, put them into ordered tiers and have all but a few medical or character risks on their board. I believe the Packers do that. Trey Lance and Trevor Lawrence are, for sure, on the packers board because they grade everyone.

Other teams, famously Bill Belichick, do more what we do on message boards. Pick out the guys from the draft class that you WANT on your team, focus only on them, assign them a value, and manipulate your draft picks through trades such that your guys can be selected at your approximate value. Belichick has said he sometimes only has 25-30 guys on his list in a given draft class.

I'd like to see media members stack players within position groups based on the traits the team appears to value and need for the scheme... for instance, we might have Samuel, Jr. higher than Patrick Surtain (we also might not)... and also include approximate draft value.

But I don't need to see a list of like the top Cs in the league interspersed with the top CBs in the league based on team fit. It warps real world positional value (for instance, valuing iOL, RBs, TEs a bit less) into need-based positional value (for us, valuing C, RB, and CBs more).

It's not just that it's a pointless exercise (all mocks are in that way), it's that it is an exercise that cannot hope to shed any light or add any insight into a team's plans or needs or likely draft board.

If you want to do a team-specific big board, then you have to ditched numbered order and, like you mentioned, go more with tiers to show where you would take someone.

If Moulden is 48th, would we TAKE HIM at 48? No, because there are a number of highly-ranked players not on this list. So the number, 48, and his relative order among other guys we might take, becomes meaningless. It doesn't tell us his value. If WR Marshall is at 24, would we TAKE HIM at 24? No way, total reach.

So it's not just a pointless endeavor, it actively confuses, rather than clarifies, the situation. It's an actively bad exercise, rather than a neutral, pointless one. Sorry Ross.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 07 Mar 2021 21:44
by BF004
I’m sold


Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 08 Mar 2021 07:10
by YoHoChecko
How about in round four please?

He’s def one of my top targets though.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 08 Mar 2021 11:58
by Yoop
YoHoChecko wrote:
05 Mar 2021 09:45
lupedafiasco wrote:
05 Mar 2021 09:42
I would lose my $%@# mind if they took him in the 2nd.
Take it up with Dane Brugler!
I adhere to Brugler's draft position more then other draft guys, obviously he misses on some players, they all do, but if he thinks Rodgers is a late 2nd round guy, I'd buy it, he's rarely off by to much.

and I have no idea what Lupe is talking about when he says slot receivers are not a fit in Lafluers offense, we went through two of em last season ( Erving and Austin) a Guy like Amari Rodgers is a tailor fit for what we want from a slot guy, he's no Toney, but then we have almost no chance to draft him, Rodgers would be a very good consolation prize.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 08 Mar 2021 12:05
by YoHoChecko
Yoop wrote:
08 Mar 2021 11:58
I adhere to Brugler's draft position more then other draft guys, obviously he misses on some players, they all do, but if he thinks Rodgers is a late 2nd round guy, I'd buy it, he's rarely off by to much.

and I have no idea what Lupe is talking about when he says slot receivers are not a fit in Lafluers offense, we went through two of em last season ( Erving and Austin) a Guy like Amari Rodgers is a tailor fit for what we want from a slot guy, he's no Toney, but then we have almost no chance to draft him, Rodgers would be a very good consolation prize.
I think a lot of it is a bit of recency bias and because the Senior Bowl is the only BIG pre-draft event. So some guys who got really into Senior Bowl coverage are really high on the guys who were there, like Dane.

As for the second part of your statement, first I will say that MLF does talk a LOT about blocking by WRs and Gutey HAS shown a clear preference for bigger bodies, so it is genuinely true that these things are considerations, but not nearly to the extant that lupe is selling them. I just wouldn't totally write off that point.

But more to what I wanted to say, Rodgers is a better RECEIVER than Toney is, right now. He runs better routes, creates his own separation better, and has more consistent hands. However, Toney IS more dynamic, has a very very unique elusive ability, and is a better returner right now. His ceiling is higher and his usage might be more bang for the buck, but his role would also have to begin in a more limited fashion, I believe.

That's fine, since we hardly ever used Ervin and Austin, really; I'm good with either option. But I'm looking more for a better value at the position. If we have a choice between Toney in the first, Rodgers in the 2nd or Felton in the 4th, I'll take Felton in the 4th.

If we have a choice between Toney in the first, Rodgers in the 3rd, and Felton in the 4th, I'll take Rodgers in the 3rd. If we could get Toney in the second, I'd take that. So it'll be a lot about value and tradeoffs at that position. Unfortunately, the options with at least 190 pounds in them are limited

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 08 Mar 2021 14:42
by Labrev
Hey, remember when Oakland took Clelin Ferrell #4 overall? Tehe... that was funny! :P

So far, he posted 4.5 sacks in 15 games as a rookie, and 2 in 11 games last year as a second-year player.

But it was oh so important to the Raiders that they create a new culture, and the guy reportedly had great leadership traits and intangibles, which clearly outweighs on-field production (sarcasm). Besides, there is no other way to create a new culture than to burn high draft picks on "vocal leader" types who otherwise do not warrant being drafted highly (more sarcasm). So... :idn: :lol:

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 08 Mar 2021 15:40
by Yoop
Labrev wrote:
08 Mar 2021 14:42
Hey, remember when Oakland took Clelin Ferrell #4 overall? Tehe... that was funny! :P

So far, he posted 4.5 sacks in 15 games as a rookie, and 2 in 11 games last year as a second-year player.

But it was oh so important to the Raiders that they create a new culture, and the guy reportedly had great leadership traits and intangibles, which clearly outweighs on-field production (sarcasm). Besides, there is no other way to create a new culture than to burn high draft picks on "vocal leader" types who otherwise do not warrant being drafted highly (more sarcasm). So... :idn: :lol:
:rotf: so over drafted, I had Gary higher then Ferrell, and neither above the more traditional OLB's like Allen, Burns or Sweat, or even Bosa who went first, I havn't really followed Ferrell much, but reading this confirms my pre draft opinion, and granted some of this could be the result of how he is used.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 09 Mar 2021 11:29
by paco
Seems Packers media is Greg Newsome II or bust. Seems like a good fit though.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 09 Mar 2021 11:42
by Backthepack4ever
paco wrote:
09 Mar 2021 11:29
Seems Packers media is Greg Newsome II or bust. Seems like a good fit though.
Just ran a 4.31 40

All these dudes 4.3 this year :dunno: :)

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 09 Mar 2021 11:51
by BF004
Seems like initially the media isn’t caring about who sat out in 2020.

Wonder how teams will actually view that.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 09 Mar 2021 12:00
by paco
Backthepack4ever wrote:
09 Mar 2021 11:42
paco wrote:
09 Mar 2021 11:29
Seems Packers media is Greg Newsome II or bust. Seems like a good fit though.
Just ran a 4.31 40

All these dudes 4.3 this year :dunno: :)
I saw someone say anything between 4.3 and 4.55 (I think), really doesn't matter and you can't see much of a difference on the field in the NFL. Slower than that and there is a dropoff and it's noticeable (I think this was for DB/WR mostly).

And yes, everyone will run a 4.2/4.3 in this class. Some 6'9" 425lb RT is going to run a 4.5 and the media will &%$@ its pants for no reason.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 09 Mar 2021 12:04
by paco
I would have liked another or different angle, but the run looked good. Nice get off and looked smooth and natural. Some of the guys you can tell when they practiced hard for the 40 and it doesn't come natural. That translates to the field. This clip looked good. Of course, it looked like he was taking "underwear olympics" literally.


Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 09 Mar 2021 12:08
by paco
Other Northwestern target for the Packers. Someone said this was in the 7.45 range.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 18 Mar 2021 08:23
by YoHoChecko
Has anyone found a resource that just... lists Pro Days and their results?

I can find the schedule. I can find SO MANY article-style recaps or editorials that highlight what they find interesting or noteworthy.

But like, ALL these draft resources and analysts and websites, someone has to understand that just... providing information in a simple, minimalist-but-complete manner is worthwhile, right?

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 18 Mar 2021 08:26
by paco
YoHoChecko wrote:
18 Mar 2021 08:23
Has anyone found a resource that just... lists Pro Days and their results?

I can find the schedule. I can find SO MANY article-style recaps or editorials that highlight what they find interesting or noteworthy.

But like, ALL these draft resources and analysts and websites, someone has to understand that just... providing information in a simple, minimalist-but-complete manner is worthwhile, right?
No, so just shut up and read my column on Trevor Lawrence and be happy.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 18 Mar 2021 08:33
by BF004
YoHoChecko wrote:
18 Mar 2021 08:23
Has anyone found a resource that just... lists Pro Days and their results?

I can find the schedule. I can find SO MANY article-style recaps or editorials that highlight what they find interesting or noteworthy.

But like, ALL these draft resources and analysts and websites, someone has to understand that just... providing information in a simple, minimalist-but-complete manner is worthwhile, right?
I've been interested for years in making a website with commonly sought data, by people like us, not exactly tens of thousands of us, but data we find useful. But simple data like that, results.

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 18 Mar 2021 08:38
by YoHoChecko
BF004 wrote:
18 Mar 2021 08:33
I've been interested for years in making a website with commonly sought data, by people like us, not exactly tens of thousands of us, but data we find useful. But simple data like that, results.
Gil Brandt used to do it at NFL.com; all the Pro Days, by schedule; results listed on each one; plus his analysis blurbs. That was very nice.

Even if it's not a combine-results style, sortable chart of results; I just want one-stop shopping

Re: 2021 NFL Draft Discussion

Posted: 18 Mar 2021 08:54
by Yoop
YoHoChecko wrote:
18 Mar 2021 08:38
BF004 wrote:
18 Mar 2021 08:33
I've been interested for years in making a website with commonly sought data, by people like us, not exactly tens of thousands of us, but data we find useful. But simple data like that, results.
Gil Brandt used to do it at NFL.com; all the Pro Days, by schedule; results listed on each one; plus his analysis blurbs. That was very nice.

Even if it's not a combine-results style, sortable chart of results; I just want one-stop shopping
seems every draft site has a pay wall these days, Draft tech is the only one I've found that gives a explanation of a player, and draft tech was never one of my fav draft sites.

years ago I'd look for Gil Brandts analysis on players, he seemed the most accurate and would do a college season ending grade on a lot of players, he tipped me off the Mathews long before the combine and pro days, now he has a pay wall, the industry has cut us out unless we want to pay for the info.