Packers Huddle

Demovsky over at ESPN did a position-by-position breakdown on whether the Packers are Better, Worse, or The Same. If you want the explanations, click the links, offense and defense, but I figured I'd give a summary. Not really different from what we've been saying, but nice to see it collected:

Rob Demovsky, ESPN wrote: Receivers
Additions: Devin Funchess (unrestricted free agent), Reggie Begelton (CFL), Darrell Stewart (rookie free agent)
Losses: Geronimo Allison (Lions), Ryan Grant (unsigned)
Returners: Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jake Kumerow, Equanimeous St. Brown, Darrius Shepherd, Malik Taylor
Better, worse or the same? Better

Running backs
Additions: AJ Dillon (second-round pick), Patrick Taylor (rookie free agent), FB Jordan Jones (rookie free agent)
Losses: FB Danny Vitale (Patriots)
Returners: Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Tyler Ervin, Dexter Williams, Damarea Crockett
Better, worse or the same? Better

Tight ends
Additions: Josiah Deguara (third-round pick)
Losses: Jimmy Graham (Bears)
Returners: Marcedes Lewis, Jace Sternberger, Robert Tonyan, Evan Baylis, James Looney
Better, worse or the same? The same

Quarterbacks
Additions: Jordan Love (first-round pick), Jalen Morton (undrafted rookie)
Losses: None
Returners: Aaron Rodgers, Tim Boyle
Better, worse or the same? Better

Offensive line
Additions: Rick Wagner (free agent), Jon Runyan (sixth round), Jake Hanson (sixth round), Simon Stepaniak (sixth round), Travis Bruffy (rookie free agent), Zack Johnson (rookie free agent)
Losses: Bryan Bulaga (Chargers), Jared Veldheer (unsigned)
Returners: David Bakhtiari, Elgton Jenkins, Corey Linsley, Billy Turner, Lucas Patrick, Lane Taylor, John Leglue, Alex Light, Cole Madison, Cody Conway, Yosh Nijman
Better, worse or the same? Worse

Defensive line
Additions: Treyvon Hester (street free agent), Gerald Willis (waivers), Willington Previlon (undrafted free agent)
Losses: None.
Returners: Kenny Clark, Dean Lowry, Tyler Lancaster, Montravius Adams, Kingsley Keke
Better, worse or the same? The same.

Inside linebackers
Additions: Christian Kirksey (free agent), Kamal Martin (fifth-round pick), Krys Barnes (rookie free agent)
Losses: Blake Martinez (Giants), B.J. Goodson (Browns)
Returners: Oren Burks, Ty Summers, Curtis Bolton
Better, worse or the same? Better.

Outside linebackers
Additions: Jonathan Garvin (seventh-round pick), Jamal Davis (waivers), Delontae Scott (rookie free agent), Tipa Galeai (rookie free agent)
Losses: Kyler Fackrell (Giants)
Returners: Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary, Tim Williams, Randy Ramsey
Better, worse or the same? The same.

Safeties
Additions: Vernon Scott (seventh-round pick), Henry Black (rookie free agent), Frankie Griffin (rookie free agent)
Losses: Ibraheim Campbell (Titans)
Returners: Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage, Raven Greene, Will Redmond
Better, worse or the same? The same.

Cornerbacks
Additions: DaShaun Amos (street free agent), Marc-Antoine Dequoy (rookie free agent), Stanford Samuels (rookie free agent), Will Sunderland (rookie free agent)
Losses: Tramon Williams (unsigned)
Returners: Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, Josh Jackson, Ka’dar Hollman, Chandon Sullivan, Kabion Ento
Better, worse or the same? Worse.

Yeah when I look at the 2019 to 2020 Packers, I think the main variables are health and the historic production and game dominance from Z and Preston Smith.

Our season was dependent on both of those (though I will say we performed perhaps our best football when our top injured player wasn't playing). I think relying on these variables to repeat itself is akin to relying on repeat performances of 2011 and 2014 with insane health and historic production from Rodgers. The fact is outside of a 6 game stretch in 2016....we never saw that level production from Rodgers after those seasons either.

Therefore for our 2020 season to be as successful as 2019, I do think we will need better play from our ILB, our quarterback, and the expected/hopeful growth from our young 2nd and 3rd year players.

If we do, I think we can be as difficult as anyone in the league. If we don't....if we see the same type of play and production from those positions as we saw in 2019....I think a regression back to "our mean of play" is very likely. Definitely playoff caliber though.

Even taking off my rosy-colored glasses on the outlook of this team, I fail to see how he is able to project ILB's to be better (I agree they are better, BTW), but also not use projection to say the TE group will be better. Worse? I don't see it.

NCF wrote: ↑

28 May 2020 10:21

Even taking off my rosy-colored glasses on the outlook of this team, I fail to see how he is able to project ILB's to be better (I agree they are better, BTW), but also not use projection to say the TE group will be better. Worse? I don't see it.

He said TEs are the same.

The difference according to the articles seem to be that Kirksey is a proven player (that Pettine genuinely knows) in the league while none of the TEs are. Demovsky compares Martinez's four years to Kirksey's first four years and finds that Kirksey had more career sacks, forced fumbles and fumble recoveries.

For the TEs, he calls Graham addition by subtraction, but the players in line to replace him are unknowns.

That's a different kind of projection to say that a veteran free agent with experience playing for your DC will play well than to say a rookie and a 2nd year player from IR will play well.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

28 May 2020 10:28

NCF wrote: ↑

28 May 2020 10:21

Even taking off my rosy-colored glasses on the outlook of this team, I fail to see how he is able to project ILB's to be better (I agree they are better, BTW), but also not use projection to say the TE group will be better. Worse? I don't see it.

He said TEs are the same.

The differenceaccording to the articles seem to be that Kirksey is a proven player in the league while none of the TEs are. Demovsky compares Martinez's four years to Kirksey's first four years and finds that Kirksey had more career sacks, forced fumbles and fumble recoveries.

For the TEs, he calls Graham addition by subtraction, but the players in line to replace him are unknowns.

OK, glanced over it too quickly. Still, I have no issue projecting Sternberger to be better than his 2019 self and its not a stretch to see his play quickly rise above what Graham was last year, either. Add in a 3rd-round pick and I think we are certainly more dynamic and I'd say better.

I remember back when TT was the GB kingmaker he was talking about how the focus was gonna be on the O and they were just gonna outscore people. Well i wonder if the path to making the obvious fatal flaw of not being able to stop the run obsolete is to just play keepaway. Not necessarily trying to outscore everyone, and getting in shoot outs. But using those TEs, Dillon, Jones, Williams, new OLmen, etc to just run that clock and keep the other O off the field.

Looks leaner and faster to me, although admittedly can’t know for sure Without knowing the skill level of the poor guy he put the moves on.

Oh &%$@...

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

29 May 2020 10:15

Oh &%$@...

Yeah, I thought the goal was to move the chains and keep the D fresh rather than looking for the big play and punting

As long as MLF and Rodgers understand that an "explosive play" doesn't necessarily occur more often on a scramble drill deep downfield, but instead through a scheme that allows weak areas of the defense to be exploited on schedule.

The focus on play action and improving the run game, for instance, is a step to increase explosive plays; but not a step to force-heave the ball downfield.

I think MLF gets that. We'll see if he convinces Rodgers.

(Of course, the biggest key to more explosive plays is to have more explosive players, capable of turning regular plays into explosive ones)

They won’t be getting any explosive plays with the lack of speed on offense.

Lack of speed is a funny concept and misunderstood. What is lack of speed? A 4.6 40? A 4.5 40?

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

29 May 2020 21:32

Lack of speed is a funny concept and misunderstood. What is lack of speed? A 4.6 40? A 4.5 40?

Honestly, we've gone over this on the board again and again and it really feels like those who claim we don't have a lack of speed are the ones misunderstanding.

Absolutely no one is saying that running in the 4.5s is slow. Davante Adams is a receiver with adequate speed. Obviously, our most explosive player, Aaron Jones, who runs in the 4.5s, has adequate speed. Lazard and Funchess are probably at the low end of acceptable speed for the position, really depending on where they actually are.

But when we talk about "lack of team speed," we mean that any any given time, there is generally between 0 and 1 player on the field who presents a matchup problem based on speed. We're talking about "Next Gen Stats" that almost never feature one of our WRs on the "fastest max speed" players of the week (Aaron Jones cracked it a few times, and I think MVS did once. And once Danny Vitale, I'm not kidding). We're talking about the lack of suddenness and acceleration that gets a player to that top speed fast enough to actually play out on the field.

It's not saying that any of these players individually do not have enough speed to be successful in the NFL. It's saying that collectively, we're left with a group who has the fewest snaps that force defenders to play back or shade a deep safety to address our speed.

Your top speed matters and how suddenly you can start and stop using that speed matters. Maybe not individually. But when you look around our offense, you will DEFINITELY see that we have less suddenness and top-end speed than most other teams. That's a fair critique and it absolutely plays into the "lack of explosive plays" aspect our team has faced in recent years.

Wait... Are we talking about top speed or acceleration.. I am lost at what team speed means. Are we talking about true top speed or COD? It is all getting muddled.

you will DEFINITELY see that we have less suddenness and top-end speed than most other teams.

Will we? Those are 2 very different things and a very bold statement that I would love to see proof of.

This is a slow offense. MVS has all the speed in the world but his tracking is poor and his technique is bad all around. Twice by my ninety he could have scored long TDs last year. Once he didn’t drag his feet in the back of the end zone. Another he was one on one and couldn’t find the ball and had a really good chance of scoring. A better DB would have gotten an easy uncontested INT but he played the man and not the ball.

ESB has done speed to him but he isn’t a burned. Sternberger isn’t a blazer. As good as Adams is he gets open by technique and skill rather than his athletic ability. Lazard isn’t going to be beating anyone deep.

The type of deep balls these guys present is the big type that wins contested catches and Rodgers just isn’t going to throw those balls and I don’t blame him with this sorry lot.

AJ Dillon 4.53 40 at 247 pouunds
Aaron Jones 2.48 40, 6.82 3 cone
ESB 4.48 40 at 225 pounds
Tonyan 4.58 40 at 236 pounds
Alan Lazzard 4.55 at 227 pounds

But then we have Fuchness
4.70 40 at 232 pounds

Seems to me that this team has plenty of speed as long as they keep Fuchness on the bench.

The thing is, the speed is in the backfield, not at WR. Really, the starting lineup could be Jones/Dillon in the backfield, Sternberger and Tonyan at TE, Adams at WR and any of the 6'4+ 225+ (Lazard, ESB, MVS, Kumerow) at hybrid WE/TE. That is what those 4 really are, hybrid WR/TE's fast enough to get open deep but primarily in there for a play-action offense with a 50-50 run/pass ratio. The modern NFL defense with 5'10 185 pound corners, 200 pound safties and 225 pound LB's is not built to stop an Offense with 6'4"+ 225-235 pound receivers and a 245 pound RB who runs a 4.5 40. Let those little DB's and safties try to tackle a 245 pound bulldozer knowing that he takes it 70 yards or the endzone whichever is closer if they don't get him down. The only thing that can stop this O is Rodgers refusing to take a 5 yard pass with 3 yards of YAC to a receiver who is 5 inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than the guy who is guarding him, on 1st down. Or alternately, handing the ball off to Jones or Dillon. Either way we would see second down and 2 yards to go pretty consistently. Which beats the hell out of 1st and 20 because Rodgers held the ball too long and one of the linemen got caught holding. Or 2nd and 18 because Rodgers got sacked. Or 2nd and 20 because of intentional grounding.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

29 May 2020 22:09

Wait... Are we talking about top speed or acceleration.. I am lost at what team speed means. Are we talking about true top speed or COD? It is all getting muddled.

you will DEFINITELY see that we have less suddenness and top-end speed than most other teams.

Will we? Those are 2 very different things and a very bold statement that I would love to see proof of.

The reason I brought up suddenness is because top end speed doesn't matter that much if you need a 20-yard runway to get there; just very few plays when it would apply. And when i said SEE I meant SEE, so proof is rough to come by.

But let's see what I can do with what I have.

NextGen stats tallies the top 20 fastest ballcarriers each week.

The Packers had 12 appearances on that list; right off the bat, that's 12/340 = 3.5%, which is about what you'd expect as 1/32 is 3.1%... so we're starting off average speed. 3 of those, though, are from kickoff returns, so that's 9 on offense.

Of the nine on offense, 5 were Aaron Jones. One was Danny Vitale. So we're down to 3 appearances on that list by our WRs. One for Adams, One for Kumerow, One for MVS. When you consider that Kumerow and MVS are not top 3 WRs, you can start to understand that we don't have guys at the receiver position who are making an impact in terms of speed very often.

But we need context. I said the Packers had 12 players appear, with 9 appearances on offense.
The 49ers had 22 players appear, all on offensive plays (unless I missed one or two). The Chiefs had 17 appearances, all on offense. The Ravens had 13 players appear, 12 on offense.

I just picked some teams that I think of as having good team speed and tallied one by one; there wasn't a sortable list for me to look at the full league.

So when we say that we need more explosive playmakers on the offense...

• 1) we're well aware that we have ONE, and his name is Aaron Jones.

• 2) We're well aware that Davante Adams is a great WR, but point out that he's not a burner--one appearance on this list aside.

• And finally 3) We're saying that what we lack are WRs who can get on the field and contribute who add those speedy explosive elements to the team.

Now, if MVS has a big bounce-back year? Check. I don't think anyone is going to confuse Kumerow for Usain Bolt out there, but he did tally a notch on the list for us. If Tyler Ervin becomes a regular part of the offense and adds more explosion (he had 2 KO returns on the list), that helps, too.

But it is verifiably true that the Packers WR group lacks speed. Three times they showed up on this list with one apiece by guys likely to receive very limited playing time.

Another thing to look at is to see which teams have players appearing multiple times on the list.
-Aaron Jones appeared 5 times and Tyler Ervin twice for KO returns.
-The 49ers saw multiple appearances from Deebo Samuel, Raheem Mostert, Matt Brieda, and Richie James (all offense)
-The Chiefs saw multiple appearances from Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, and Damien Williams (all offense)
-The Ravens saw multiple appearances from Lamar Jackson and Marquise Brown (all offense)

Unfortunately, I didn't look at the names for the other teams as carefully as I did for the Packers, where I actually recorded them. So that's off of memory; there could be more than I'm missing.

I so hate that you're pushing for this evidence, 23, because it's just so absolutely obvious and apparent. It's like trying to explain gravity. LOOK AROUND YOU; Things are falling; I shouldn't have to explain this. You're placing the burden of proof on those claiming the obvious thing knowing full well that there is incredibly limited data readily avauilable.

Hopefully someone with full access to NFL Next Gen stats will publish an "average speed of the WRs on each team" article with rankings, which has been done before.

Add to that, Rodgers was 16th in yards/completion, indicating again, league average.

Taylor takes a pay cut freeing up 3 mil. He will make 1.5 mil this season. Great team move

Backthepack4ever wrote: ↑

30 May 2020 09:20

Taylor takes a pay cut freeing up 3 mil. He will make 1.5 mil this season. Great team move

Yeah, love it. It's better than cutting him, really, because now we get to evaluate him as veteran depth without financial consequences. This gave him a chance to make the team.

Still want to see that money used on a DT