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yes, more then ever now I think Guty needs to show Rodgers some love
give that boy some new toys, I'd move 10 slots for Ruggs, hell I'd move up some for Jefferson too, he may not have the burner speed we covet, but he does everything else really well and can also transform this offense.CB, at least I can see. I wouldn't be happy, but I would understand the need.Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020 16:07I will have a !@#$ fit if they draft a cb, qb,rb, or edge guy at 30.
right, not my first choice, but ya can never have enough good CB's, I dont think Guty is pulling any punches though, he said he's open to trading up for a receiver, sounds like he might have a target player, I'll take him at his word, I got a feeling thats what he will do, thats if he can find a trader w2ill to do it.NCF wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020 16:10CB, at least I can see. I wouldn't be happy, but I would understand the need.Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020 16:07I will have a !@#$ fit if they draft a cb, qb,rb, or edge guy at 30.
Yeah, we could use a slot corner, and/or have insurance if King can't be re-signed after this season. Considering how much the nickel package is on the field these days, it would not be outrageous. I looked at team needs and honestly half the league needs a starting CB. And it's not a great class of them. I expect some more to go in the 1st round than most mocks have, and thus there should not be value at the position at 30.NCF wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020 16:10CB, at least I can see. I wouldn't be happy, but I would understand the need.Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020 16:07I will have a !@#$ fit if they draft a cb, qb,rb, or edge guy at 30.
That's not wrong, at all, but I just don't agree that you have to take the three biggest needs with the three first picks.Freewheelingutey wrote: ↑23 Apr 2020 16:25I mean I guess there is somewhat of a need..but there is a draft next year too. No need to pull the trigger on one unless the guy is the next Deion. All one needs to do is rewatch the nfc championship game..our biggest needs were right there on display. A reliable #2 receiver, a good ilb and another decent dt.
If the Texans had a 1st round pick, the sky would be the limit!
Acting like any of us has any idea who the Packers will take at 30 on Thursday night would be an outright lie. Even Brian Gutekunst won't know for sure until the draft begins to unfold. Trade scenarios take shape, the board falls into place, and realistic expectations can only then be set. So let's prepare for as many eventualities as possible, what they might look like, and what could happen around Green Bay to precipitate such a situation.
Andy Herman provided the player primer for Thursday night to get us ready for names we're likely to hear around the 30th overall pick, but what about the context? What situations could the Packers find themselves in and how would those guys end up being the pick over another potential option? The board rarely breaks in a predictable way, which means being able to have some fun gaming it out.
One quick caveat, it's looking more and more unlikely a top offensive tackle will fall, and given Green Bay's position on linebackers, it's difficult to envision one being in play at 30, but it's possible. If we wanted to have some fun, we could add one category: "Guy we never thought would be there falls and he's too good not to pick," a category that could include players like Kenneth Murray, Josh Jones, and Tua Tagovailoa. Those scenarios aren't heavily discussed here because of how unlikely they are.
Here are eight possible scenarios with potential likelihood it happens.
The "Our guy is there" pick
Packers take Brandon Aiyuk WR Arizona State at 30
Last year their guy was Rashan Gary and this year, I'd put my money on it being a receiver. This could be Denzel Mims, or Jalen Reagor, or Michael Pittman Jr. as well but to me, Aiyuk is the most likely for his ability to win deep and underneath, using his run-after-catch ability to create chunk plays. Regardless, they have a "guy," at receiver, someone who will make them take one for the first time since 2002.
Pick any one of these players and he makes this team better for 2020 and beyond. Gutey said they won't wait long to ensure they get their guy, but also said the run on receivers may not happen as teams sit back, believing they can get a quality player later in the draft. If that happens, the Packers benefit.
40% chance
The blockbuster trade up
Packers trade 30 +94+ 2021 1st for Ceedee Lamb WR Oklahoma
This is basically the trade the Saints and Packers made two years ago when Green Bay moved down from 14 to 30, then back up for Jaire Alexander and for the same reasons: to grab the impact player for a Super Bowl run. Sure it's a deep class, but if the top guy falls out of the top-10, maybe the value is there to move up and give the Packers a gamebreaker opposite Davante Adams. He's not a speedster, but Lamb plays with a ton of Adams-like qualities in his game from body control to toughness and twitch after the catch. It's hard to imagine a better fit for Aaron Rodgers in this draft.
1% chance
The Netflix trade up
Packers trade 30+94 for 20
It's cheaper. It's more forward thinking. There's no tape to rewind before you return it. If the Packers believe the run is coming at receiver, if Lamb, Jeudy and Ruggs all go top-15 and a slew of receiver-needy teams on deck, moving up to 20 to bypass the Eagles, Vikings, Patriots, Saints etc. makes sense, particularly for a guy like Justin Jefferson who offers the ideal skillset for what this offense lacks.
He's a slot receiver who can move the chains on third down, create after the catch, and his 4.4 time at the combine hints to a player with untapped potential down the field. Jefferson would provide a middle-of-the-field target this team has lacked since prime Randall Cobb. For my money, he's WR2 in this draft, and if he falls into the 20s, it's not crazy to move up for him. I won't be surprised if the Packers agree.
20% chance
The "two birds with one stone" trade
Packers trade 30 + 192 for Desmond King + 37
This is the best version of the trade down scenarios because the Packers would get one of the best slot corners in the league for moving down. Presumably in this spot, the top flight receivers would be gone and Green Bay would like the value for them better in the mid-to-late 30's where there are also quality cornerbacks, defensive linemen and even running back options. In the discussion around getting Rodgers weapons, remember, defensive players are weapons too. Last season proved how valuable they can be to an offense that isn't perfect and few offenses are. Dealing back, getting King, and still winding up with Michael Pittman Jr. would be a win for Green Bay.
5% chance
The "We got nothin'" trade back
Packers trade 30 for 40+90
Receivers go early and Green Bay can't get into the mix on trades because Zoom crashed and Bill Belichick couldn't get SnapFace to work. As a result, the Packers see few quality options at 30, moving instead down to pick up an extra top-100 pick. This is where value for players like Chase Claypool, combine darling Jeremy Chinn, A.J. Terrell and others look appealing. Add the extra third and snag a player like Antonio Gibson from Memphis and this trade could set up a scenario to avoid disappointment from missing out on the top guys. It's not the sexy option, but that's why it's the "We got nothin" option. It leaves the Packers in a tough spot.
3% chance
The "receivers are gone" dark horse
Packers take Trevon Diggs CB Alabama at 30
Kristian Fulton from LSU, or Auburn's Noah Igbinoghene fit here as well, but the idea is a cornerback to bolster a group without Tramon Williams as Kevin King enters a contract year. Diggs or Fulton project as boundary corners in the NFL, guys who could allow Jaire Alexander to play more in the slot. In Pettine's defense, even CB3 in 2020 would be on the field 70% of snaps, which makes him a de facto starter. Such a player would also provide a backstop for King if he doesn't play well enough, or enough period (injuries), to warrant a contract extension. Igbinoghene can be the long-term answer in the slot irrespective of King's future. This is not the direction most fans want to go, but it's the potentially prudent path, particularly if a run on receivers leaves the Packers choosing between reaching for a defensive tackle and taking a premium position player.
15% chance
The project pick that annoys fans
Packers take Zack Baun LB Wisconsin at 30
This could just as easily be Ezra Cleveland, Jordan Love or Claypool, but there's a cluster of late first-round guys who fit this bill and Green Bay loves to bank on athletic upside. Baun isn't the freak athlete, upside guy the other players on this list are, but he's a project nonetheless. Baun can play off the ball on early downs and rush the passer later, fitting perfectly with Mike Pettine's dime heavy schemes. He's a linebacker, but not a true off-ball linebacker which is why he could be more appealing than other options at the position. Pass rush is king. Honestly, any of these players would be good value for Green Bay at 30 (assuming Claypool is a move tight end), and I'd be fine with it, but Packers Twitter would burn white hot.
100% chance 8% chance
The reach for need
Packers take Ross Blacklock DT TCU at 30
There's only consensus around two players along the defensive interior who belong in the first round and neither of them are Blacklock. Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen come off the board, as do the top receivers and Green Bay uses planet theory—the idea there are only so many big men who can move on Earth—to justify reaching for a player to solidify the defensive interior. The problem with this is No. 1 there are very few defensive linemen worthy of this pick, and Blacklock isn't one of them. And No. 2, Pettine wants to play small, even with the troubles they had defending the run last year. Why use a first-round pick on a player who only plays 30% of snaps, or even 60% as a future Dean Lowry replacement. There's just not enough juice here to be worth the squeeze, but teams make choices like this all the time.
6% chance