Packers Huddle

Labrev wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 09:34

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 09:08

right, we need our draft picks for defense, defense wins championships, we'd be better off buying defensive players and drafting receivers, the hit rate is higher on WR's.

I didn't know (or particularly care) what the hit rate is in the draft per position, but I figured I would look it up to see if you had a point.

Turns out, no, you are way off the mark on something you could have easily looked up in just a few seconds on Google.

--> WR has the lowest hit rate behind only TE and QB;
--> all three levels of defense have a better hit rate than any level of offense, the only exception is G and T are safer than DL;
--> WR has the lowest Round 1 pro-bowl rate of any(!) position;
--> WR has the fourth highest bust rate, the only position on defense with a higher bust rate is DL.

Code: Select all

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2441018-which-positions-are-the-safest-riskiest-at-the-top-of-the-nfl-draft

I expect Gute to furnish Love with better receivers then he did Rodgers

That comparison is a non-starter. We have more resources to add talent with Love than Rodgers. Basic logic.

If Love gets an Elite QB deal while Gute is GM, then the circumstances will actually be comparable enough to make 1:1 comparisons.

Of course if one is convinced of some wild conspiracy to purposefully deprive Rodgers and just wants to be a wet blanket 24/7, logical thinking is not only unnecessary but undesirable.

a broken record is never right, are you thinking of a clock?

A broken record is right about the part of the song it repeats. It just doesn't get anything else right.

my thinking might be swayed because Thompson was so good at drafting receivers and so poor at drafting DT's, also you can get away with below average DT's, if ya have a QB that can make below average receivers good enough to over come being the worst defense in the league stopping the run.

If Wyatt fails to be good, he will just end up being another failed late first round drafted DT, it's why I would prefer to use that pick on another position and buy older vet DT's, philly did it and went to the SB, and Belichick did it several times and did the same.

you can look up any stat ya want, stats are for geeks like you. DT is a tough position, like 2 dn lbers many do play a rotational part, guys like Clark are not a dime a doz as your stats suggest.

I am no stat geek, but given a choice between stats or trusting yoop's oh-so-reliable memory... somehow I prefer the stats.

Labrev wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 09:58

I am no stat geek, but given a choice between stats or trusting yoop's oh-so-reliable memory... somehow I prefer the stats.

and you will continue to be mislead by them, why don't you look at the numbers, how many starter talent DT's do you see from each draft class after there first season, I'am not talking about rotators who don't play half the snaps, those are a dime a doz. I'am talking about players that are in for 2/3rds of the D snaps.

now look at receivers that play almost every snap, obviously there are more do to 3 usually on the field on every play, still there are more that do it not only in there rookie year, but for there whole career.

actually I'am not out to convince you of anything, think what you like.

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 10:25

Labrev wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 09:58

I am no stat geek, but given a choice between stats or trusting yoop's oh-so-reliable memory... somehow I prefer the stats.

and you will continue to be mislead by them, why don't you look at the numbers, how many starter talent DT's do you see from each draft class after there first season, I'am not talking about rotators who don't play half the snaps, those are a dime a doz. I'am talking about players that are in for 2/3rds of the D snaps.

now look at receivers that play almost every snap, obviously there are more do to 3 usually on the field on every play, still there are more that do it not only in there rookie year, but for there whole career.

actually I'am not out to convince you of anything, think what you like.

The point wasn't that stats are infallible, just that they are way less fallible than the beliefs your mind conjures up, ranging anywhere from false (this conversation) to downright wacky (e.g. players trying to mutiny, Rodgers trying to get guys fired, Janis having &%$@-eating grins every time he dropped the ball).

But big LOL @ "you're misled by stats, go look at the numbers!" See, this is what makes our conversations so fun!

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 10:25

Labrev wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 09:58

I am no stat geek, but given a choice between stats or trusting yoop's oh-so-reliable memory... somehow I prefer the stats.

and you will continue to be mislead by them, why don't you look at the numbers,

Sometimes i swear you have to be doing things like this on purpose just to toy with us.

BF004 wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:12

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 10:25

Labrev wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 09:58

I am no stat geek, but given a choice between stats or trusting yoop's oh-so-reliable memory... somehow I prefer the stats.

and you will continue to be mislead by them, why don't you look at the numbers,

Sometimes i swear you have to be doing things like this on purpose just to toy with us.

I know one thing, the end of round one and beginning of round 2 hasn't been a good position for us to draft DT's, and we have done very well drafting WR's in round 2, again we shouldn't continue to do things that havn't worked

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:21

BF004 wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:12

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 10:25

and you will continue to be mislead by them, why don't you look at the numbers,

Sometimes i swear you have to be doing things like this on purpose just to toy with us.

I know one thing, the end of round one and beginning of round 2 hasn't been a good position for us to draft DT's, and we have done very well drafting WR's in round 2, again we shouldn't continue to do things that havn't worked

Davante Wyatt and Kenny Clark are the only end of round 1 beginning of round 2 DTs we have drafted in the last 10 years! [mention]BF004[/mention] it has to be on purpose...

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:23

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:21

BF004 wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:12

Sometimes i swear you have to be doing things like this on purpose just to toy with us.

I know one thing, the end of round one and beginning of round 2 hasn't been a good position for us to draft DT's, and we have done very well drafting WR's in round 2, again we shouldn't continue to do things that havn't worked

Davante Wyatt and Kenny Clark are the only end of round 1 begging of round 2 DTs we have drafted in the last 10 years! @BF004 it has to be on purpose...

Again, linear time. You look at the last ten years. Yoop is looking at 30 years as if they happened all at once. He's thinking of Datone Jones and while a stretch for "late round one" Justin Harrell. He for sure considers Nick Perry a DL because he always should have been a 4-3 end not a 3-4 OLB. And the 2nd round brings Jerrell Worthy into the mix. He also probably considers Wyatt a disappointment because he hasn't seen it proven yet that he won't be, and the future is the present if time is nonlinear.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:29

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:23

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:21

I know one thing, the end of round one and beginning of round 2 hasn't been a good position for us to draft DT's, and we have done very well drafting WR's in round 2, again we shouldn't continue to do things that havn't worked

Davante Wyatt and Kenny Clark are the only end of round 1 begging of round 2 DTs we have drafted in the last 10 years! @BF004 it has to be on purpose...

Again, linear time. You look at the last ten years. Yoop is looking at 30 years as if they happened all at once. He's thinking of Datone Jones and while a stretch for "late round one" Justin Harrell. He for sure considers Nick Perry a DL because he always should have been a 4-3 end not a 3-4 OLB. And the 2nd round brings Jerrell Worthy into the mix. He also probably considers Wyatt a disappointment because he hasn't seen it proven yet that he won't be, and the future is the present if time is nonlinear.

exactly, why someone would just look at the last few season when I made a generic statement just confuses the issue, we have missed on most of the DL that we've taken, far more, and just the opposite drafting WR in those draft slots.

and I be willing to bet a indian head nickel it's the same for other teams.

YoHoChecko wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:29

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:23

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:21

I know one thing, the end of round one and beginning of round 2 hasn't been a good position for us to draft DT's, and we have done very well drafting WR's in round 2, again we shouldn't continue to do things that havn't worked

Davante Wyatt and Kenny Clark are the only end of round 1 begging of round 2 DTs we have drafted in the last 10 years! @BF004 it has to be on purpose...

Again, linear time. You look at the last ten years. Yoop is looking at 30 years as if they happened all at once. He's thinking of Datone Jones and while a stretch for "late round one" Justin Harrell. He for sure considers Nick Perry a DL because he always should have been a 4-3 end not a 3-4 OLB. And the 2nd round brings Jerrell Worthy into the mix. He also probably considers Wyatt a disappointment because he hasn't seen it proven yet that he won't be, and the future is the present if time is nonlinear.

So what you are saying is you have to play fast and loose with everything that was said to make it "work." And we are the ones who twist thing around??!!

Right on queue, 10 is a few, and specific positions and draft slots are generic.

The fun part of the prior convo is, I do not even care about hit/bust rate. I was just curious if what yoop was saying is true.

Even if yoop could undeniably prove that WR is the most low-risk position to draft, it matters not. Why should it? The prerequisite to drafting any player is that you believe they will 'hit' on your team.

QB has the highest bust rate by far, so should drafting QB be avoided wholesale? Of course not, that would be absurd.

Just draft the players who bring the most value to your team, regardless position. If it's a WR, take them. If it's a defender, take them. Again, hit/bust rate does not matter because anytime you draft a guy, you are a priori assuming or at least hoping they will be on the better side of the odds.

Labrev wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 11:52

The fun part of the prior convo is, I do not even care about hit/bust rate. I was just curious if what yoop was saying is true.

Even if yoop could undeniably prove that WR is the most low-risk position to draft, it matters not. Why should it? The prerequisite to drafting any player is that you believe they will 'hit' on your team.

QB has the highest bust rate by far, so should drafting QB be avoided wholesale? Of course not, that would be absurd.

Just draft the players who bring the most value to your team, regardless position. If it's a WR, take them. If it's a defender, take them. Again, hit/bust rate does not matter because anytime you draft a guy, you are a priori assuming or at least hoping they will be on the better side of the odds.

when someone like you argues with every word i post then the fun is not a two way thing, my impression is that you lack respect for me, like 23 basically your calling me a liar, who likes that, who finds happiness with that.

again look around the league, people wouldn't be spending mucho bucks purchasing playable DT's if the draft was able to produce them

Teams spend mucho bucks to purchase all positions...

Simple solution, don't make things up to try and prove your points.

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 12:13

when someone like you argues with every word i post then the fun is not a two way thing, my impression is that you lack respect for me, like 23 basically your calling me a liar, who likes that, who finds happiness with that.

We are what the kids call "fren-emies." It's a cross between friends and enemies. Our relationship is not built around loving each other, it is built around loving to hate each other!



But seeing as this means something to you, okay, I will watch my tone.

again look around the league, people wouldn't be spending mucho bucks purchasing playable DT's if the draft was able to produce them

Actually, the opposite is true. DTs are expensive because developing homegrown talent there via draft is *not* easy. If it were easy to just get when via draft, why pay big bucks for them? Just draft one for cheaper.

Labrev wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 12:46

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 12:13

when someone like you argues with every word i post then the fun is not a two way thing, my impression is that you lack respect for me, like 23 basically your calling me a liar, who likes that, who finds happiness with that.

We are what the kids call "fren-emies." It's a cross between friends and enemies. Our relationship is not built around loving each other, it is built around loving to hate each other!



But seeing as this means something to you, okay, I will watch my tone.

again look around the league, people wouldn't be spending mucho bucks purchasing playable DT's if the draft was able to produce them

Actually, the opposite is true. DTs are expensive because developing homegrown talent there via draft is *not* easy. If it were easy to just get when via draft, why pay big bucks for them? Just draft one for cheaper.

fren-emies?? never heard of it, either your friends that have friendly conversations or your not, and digging up stats (which often are inconclusive, or half truths) because all you care about is proving the other is wrong isn't really a friendly conversation.

DT's that amount to no more then a rotational player to give starters a breather are plentiful, your right, same as are ILB's that only play 2 downs because they suck in coverage, and sure plenty of WR end up being #3 or 4 rotational receivers, but in round one or early 2nd WR imho has better odds of starting then either of the other two.

thats basically what I said from the start, and it's been proven over and over by our GM's and the rest around the league.

I have no problem joking around Labrev, your stance though concerning Rodgers has not been joking around, and I can't wait for him to prove you wrong, if Rodgers decided to play 5 more years, baring injury I'am sure he could, and could do so well, issues last year out of his control is the biggest reason he didn't play well, that you have disagreed with me about this doesn't come even close to making any sense, you listen to to much malarky from people with nothing to lose making those off the wall comments, and when you support what they say as fervently as you have, I have to wonder if you've recently had a frontal lobotomy, say it aint so

Yeah, DT is tough.

You get guys like BJ Raji who are great for a couple of years but whose wheels can't support their weight after that. You get guys like Johnny Jolly, all the talent in the world but no self control.

Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/2 ... t-by-round

just one of many articles that show DL is a high bust rate position in the first round, I was surprised and wrong, WR misses rank right with it, best receivers we've had though came from the 2nd round, I'am trying to think of a DL from round 2 in that time frame that amounted to more then a 2 dn rotator

IMO Skeptic, Jolly was a hit in the 6th round, the drug policy was more strict, like most, Jolly took till year 3 to start and make a impact, again though Jolly was not a pass rusher, and why he was a 6th round pick.

Kenny Clark imo is the best since Raji. ??????

[mention]Yoop[/mention]
LBs...

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 16:40

Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/2 ... t-by-round

just one of many articles that show DL is a high bust rate position in the first round, I was surprised and wrong, WR misses rank right with it, best receivers we've had though came from the 2nd round, I'am trying to think of a DL from round 2 in that time frame that amounted to more then a 2 dn rotator

Okay, but they are using different criteria than the one I posted. For this article, "hit" = starter. By their system, Allen Lazard would be a hit (if he was drafted).

For the one I posted, "hit" = All-Pro, so the criteria is a lot tougher.

Labrev wrote: ↑

22 Mar 2023 08:39

Yoop wrote: ↑

21 Mar 2023 16:40

Defensive line ties with running backs and wide receivers for the lowest first round success rate at 58%.

https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/2 ... t-by-round

just one of many articles that show DL is a high bust rate position in the first round, I was surprised and wrong, WR misses rank right with it, best receivers we've had though came from the 2nd round, I'am trying to think of a DL from round 2 in that time frame that amounted to more then a 2 dn rotator

Okay, but they are using different criteria than the one I posted. For this article, "hit" = starter. By their system, Allen Lazard would be a hit (if he was drafted).

For the one I posted, "hit" = All-Pro, so the criteria is a lot tougher.

Labrev I don't care what criteria anyone uses, DT is a high bust rate position, and far more WR become all pro on there rookie contracts then do DT's, there is a 48% chance that Wyatt never becomes more then a rotational lineman for us, while Watson becomes a starter for the next 10 seasons.