53-man Roster Predictions (16-man PS)

[go pak go]

I think Madison is done. They have a capable group of next ups and I don't think he is part of that.

I mean, that MAY be true, but based on what, though? Like, tearing an ACL during your de facto rookie year doesn't change anything about you as a prospect. It's just a recency bias

However, couple that with his absence in his actual rookie year, plus he will not be ready to start his 3rd year. Then we drafted 3 offensive linemen. How is he going to show that he make the team over those guys?

Given this year and things are going, Cole Madison is prepping to make the roster for 2021. I am almost certain he will start on the PUP. No other team will pick him up because....why? So then just ride him on the Practice Squad and bring him to camp in 2021.

[go pak go]

Fine. I will say this, then. You will never see Madison suit up for a Packers regular season game again. Just my opinion, but a pretty strong one. Also, FWIW, I think Stepaniak was the best OL they selected in this draft. I would pencil him in as the most likely replacement at RG when he is ready. Also just my opinion, but I think he is going to be good.

I really liked some of the write-ups about how nasty and persistent he is. I'm not sure how I feel about the lower level of athleticism we've brought in of late (including Madison and Stepaniak and Hansen and Wagner and Turner). It seems to be a fundamental shift in thinking about the OLine away from a way of thinking that has brought us great value and results for multiple GM generations. Jon Runyan (athletic college OT with position versatility) is the only one drafted that fit our typical metrics over the past two years (Njimen, undrafted, also fits). Jenkins was close and the results don't lie so no complaints, but he didn't have the mobility of, say, Sitton and Lang and Linsley and Tretter from our past. It's fine to have exceptions (especially borderline exceptions that perform like Jenkins), but half the OL now seems to deviate from our previous norms.

But yeah, Stepaniak has 2021 RG written all over him.

Just imagine if we can hit on Runyan and Stepaniak on the right side next year. That would free up so much money for us

[BF004]

Fine. I will say this, then. You will never see Madison suit up for a Packers regular season game again. Just my opinion, but a pretty strong one. Also, FWIW, I think Stepaniak was the best OL they selected in this draft. I would pencil him in as the most likely replacement at RG when he is ready. Also just my opinion, but I think he is going to be good.

I really liked some of the write-ups about how nasty and persistent he is. I'm not sure how I feel about the lower level of athleticism we've brought in of late (including Madison and Stepaniak and Hansen and Wagner and Turner). It seems to be a fundamental shift in thinking about the OLine away from a way of thinking that has brought us great value and results for multiple GM generations. Jon Runyan (athletic college OT with position versatility) is the only one drafted that fit our typical metrics over the past two years (Njimen, undrafted, also fits). Jenkins was close and the results don't lie so no complaints, but he didn't have the mobility of, say, Sitton and Lang and Linsley and Tretter from our past. It's fine to have exceptions (especially borderline exceptions that perform like Jenkins), but half the OL now seems to deviate from our previous norms.

But yeah, Stepaniak has 2021 RG written all over him.

Just imagine if we can hit on Runyan and Stepaniak on the right side next year. That would free up so much money for us

Yeah, wouldn't hurt to rid ourselves of the Turner and Wagner contracts, but I'd say very unlikely to have two 6ths rounders starting year 2.

[NCF]

Yeah, wouldn't hurt to rid ourselves of the Turner and Wagner contracts, but I'd say very unlikely to have two 6ths rounders starting year 2.

Might be a necessity. That's when these decisions become easier to make.

[go pak go]

I really liked some of the write-ups about how nasty and persistent he is. I'm not sure how I feel about the lower level of athleticism we've brought in of late (including Madison and Stepaniak and Hansen and Wagner and Turner). It seems to be a fundamental shift in thinking about the OLine away from a way of thinking that has brought us great value and results for multiple GM generations. Jon Runyan (athletic college OT with position versatility) is the only one drafted that fit our typical metrics over the past two years (Njimen, undrafted, also fits). Jenkins was close and the results don't lie so no complaints, but he didn't have the mobility of, say, Sitton and Lang and Linsley and Tretter from our past. It's fine to have exceptions (especially borderline exceptions that perform like Jenkins), but half the OL now seems to deviate from our previous norms.

But yeah, Stepaniak has 2021 RG written all over him.

Just imagine if we can hit on Runyan and Stepaniak on the right side next year. That would free up so much money for us

Yeah, wouldn't hurt to rid ourselves of the Turner and Wagner contracts, but I'd say very unlikely to have two 6ths rounders starting year 2.

Heck. Keep Wagner as a swing tackle and have some awesome depth for a year. We will likely be targeting tackle in the first 2 rounds this spring as well.

[NCF]

I think Madison is done. They have a capable group of next ups and I don't think he is part of that.

I mean, that MAY be true, but based on what, though? Like, tearing an ACL during your de facto rookie year doesn't change anything about you as a prospect. It's just a recency bias

[YoHoChecko]

And we've had our first spike of the football of the season.

[Pckfn23]

I mean, that MAY be true, but based on what, though? Like, tearing an ACL during your de facto rookie year doesn't change anything about you as a prospect. It's just a recency bias

However, couple that with his absence in his actual rookie year, plus he will not be ready to start his 3rd year. Then we drafted 3 offensive linemen. How is he going to show that he make the team over those guys?

Ok, so the 5th round pick with a year of experience coming off of an injury, likely to start on the PUP will have less opportunity than the 6th round pick rookie coming off of an injury likely to start on the PUP?

Just because we, as fans, have lost patience or are interested in new guys doesn't make Madison any more or less of a longshot than this Steven S. guy from Indiana. The fact that Madison made the active roster last season and remained on it until his ACL tear in late November seems to indicate that he is roster-worthy when healthy; not indicate, prove by example.

He's absolutely a bubble player, but there is little to no evidence that his time is up or his chance to make an impression has passed. ESPECIALLY if you can place him on the PUP and basically punt on a roster decision for a while.

[YoHoChecko]

I always like to take a close look at UDFA signing bonuses. Here is what has been reported from this crop:

Travis Bruffy, OT, Texas Tech
Guaranteed base salary: $20,000
Signing bonus: $7,000

Frankie Griffin, S/LB, Texas State
Signing bonus: $7,000

Zack Johnson, OT, North Dakota State
Signing bonus: $7,000

Delontae Scott, EDGE, SMU
Guaranteed salary: $15,000
Signing bonus: $7,000

Darrell Stewart, WR, Michigan State
Signing bonus: $7,000

Patrick Taylor, RB, Memphis
Signing bonus: $7,000

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2020 ... ntae-scott

Interesting that two of these $7,000 guys (Griffin and Stewart) are already gone. Just to underscore how this is affecting undrafted and fringe players' opportunities to make an impact before they get caught in a numbers game

[NCF]

Interesting that two of these $7,000 guys (Griffin and Stewart) are already gone. Just to underscore how this is affecting undrafted and fringe players' opportunities to make an impact before they get caught in a numbers game

Yeah, these guys go undrafted for a reason and with little opportunity to show what they can do, the deck is fully stacked against them.

[YoHoChecko]

Here's where I'm at after day one...

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I'm thin at OT since two of the OGs are in the mix there, also.

Now that Ervin is running with the WRs at least some, I wouldn't be SHOCKED to see a different 4th RB (thought about putting Dexter Williams on the active roster), but tough the decide which of Kumerow and Begelton get nixed in favor of that.

I'm still dreaming of Marcel Dareus, but if he isn't added, I'd put Hester active.

Still a lot to shuffle out at the 4th edge spot, the iLB spot, and the DB depth between active and practice squad

[NCF]

Without seeing anyone this preseason and the crap reporting we get from our beat, I have a feeling we are going to miss on a lot of our predictions this year. I also think a guy like Kamal Martin, who in most years would get a chance to open the season as a starter, doesn't have a shot this year. No way they open the season with a guy who has never played an NFL snap in that spot. Burks and/or Summers are going to get first crack and I think have to fail miserably, early on, for Martin to get a fair shot this year. I just don't think they can do enough in these TC practices to change their minds from their own preconceived notions of these guys.

[go pak go]

Yeah I think your roster is pretty spot on for the exception of dreaming of Dereus.

I think Dexter Williams does not make the roster.

[YoHoChecko]

Without seeing anyone this preseason and the crap reporting we get from our beat, I have a feeling we are going to miss on a lot of our predictions this year.

Very much agree; there are still probably 10-15 guys on our 80-man that I know absolutely nothing about, and plenty that the only things I know about them are what their camp and preseason reports were last year. If some of those guys quietly impress (or fail to), then there could be plenty of bottom-roster surprises

[BSA]

Now that Ervin is running with the WRs at least some, I wouldn't be SHOCKED to see a different 4th RB

After reading all the comments from MLF and Shanahan on the value of a fullback/H-back- I think GB is going to go heavier at that spot this year than in previous seasons. I am guessing that's also why they are giving Tyler Ervin snaps at WR, because they are leaning towards only keeping 5 WRs this season and having Ervin cover KR/PR/RB/WR roles gives GB some added flexibility in other areas. If you're leaning into 12, 21 personnel more, you really don't need 6 WRs - but that's hard on Packer fans who are so used to a WR-centric offense.

From a roster construction POV, I think John Lovett makes the 53 - he offers insurance for Deguara and that seems to be a critical position for what MLF wants his offense to look like. And we know that SF put a claim in on Lovett, so he won't last on the PS.

In the article from Cheesehead TV- both MLF and Shanahan talk about why they like the FB/H-back over the TE for certain jobs:
https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/john-love ... sition-428

In order for LaFleur to achieve that "illusion of complexity," as he calls it within his offense, it requires a versatile group of players. This allows LaFleur to run various plays, from different formations, but with the same personnel, which in theory, is going to make life more difficult for opposing defenses with many of the roles being interchangeable.
That means having a player who can lineup in the backfield, inline, in the slot, and even out wide while also being a capable blocker and pass-catcher. This player is also known as an H-back, and the hope that LaFleur has is that third-round pick Josiah Deguara can fill that role similarily to what Kyle Juszczyk does in San Francisco.

49ers' coach Kyle Shanahan described what just Juszczyk's presence on the field does for his offense:
"When you have a fullback in there, the defense knows there are certain blitzes and certain things they can't do because you're going to be able to block it all up. If you have a fullback in, no matter what they do, you have a chance to run the ball, or at least the threat of it. So it changes some looks and allows you to call whatever you want if you really want to do that regardless of what the defense is doing."

The main thing is that a moveable H-back/fullback gives AR the ability to play chess at the LOS because Deguara/Lovett are fast enough to get to to either side of the formation, can be a threat in the passing game and can handle interior blitzers better than a lanky TE like Tonyan.
Giving Rodgers a jack-of-all -trades helps create the illusion of complexity and causes confusion on D

Vitale was not good at blocking in space and wasn't a threat in the passing game - so his presence was a tell to the defense. Now with the flexibility of Degaura and Lovett, it gives MLF the skillset he wants to run his offense and keep the defense off balance.

[go pak go]

My current list. I only did 8 Psquad members.
I guess my "shock" cut is Jake Kumerow. I love him in the blocking game but I just haven't heard much else from him. Especially if Begelton is a good gunner I think Kumerow is gone.

And my goodness is our Dline a sad state of affairs after Clark and our ILB after Kirksey and our OT after Bakh (especially if Wagner is hurt).

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[YoHoChecko]

I think this is where I am right now:

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[NCF]

I think this is where I am right now:

image.png

A few thoughts in contrast...

It sure seems like Turner is going to run away with the RT job if for no other reason than they can't take Lane Taylor on the bench.

Getting close to that time to give up on the Dareus dream. Slide everyone up and include Hester. They play that guy so little that you have to hope the Lowry/Keke/Adams/Hester/Lancaster clump steps up or at least one of them does. Maybe, MAYBE they would add a bigger name and commit resources mid-season if they needed to if that group fails early.

Williams has received some praise, but I it also seems that Garvin will be tough to leave off the roster. Have to think ST value there, too.

Samuels has been a bit of a TC darling, but I'm still rooting for Ento.

If Redmond makes the team, again, it will be for ST, alone. Between Greene, Scott, and with a little versatility from Josh Jackson, I'm hoping Redmond is expendable.

[go pak go]

I think this is where I am right now:

image.png

If Redmond makes the team, again, it will be for ST, alone. Between Greene, Scott, and with a little versatility from Josh Jackson, I'm hoping Redmond is expendable.

Me too. He was unbearable to watch last year.

[YoHoChecko]

It sure seems like Turner is going to run away with the RT job if for no other reason than they can't take Lane Taylor on the bench.

Getting close to that time to give up on the Dareus dream. Slide everyone up and include Hester. They play that guy so little that you have to hope the Lowry/Keke/Adams/Hester/Lancaster clump steps up or at least one of them does. Maybe, MAYBE they would add a bigger name and commit resources mid-season if they needed to if that group fails early.

Williams has received some praise, but I it also seems that Garvin will be tough to leave off the roster. Have to think ST value there, too.

Samuels has been a bit of a TC darling, but I'm still rooting for Ento.

If Redmond makes the team, again, it will be for ST, alone. Between Greene, Scott, and with a little versatility from Josh Jackson, I'm hoping Redmond is expendable.

I actually agree on most of that. The Garvin/Williams decision will be tough, for sure.

I'm holding off on Dareus as long as Montravius isn't practicing. I also think there could be a bunch of veteran signings the week after week one. Teams don't want to add guaranteed contracts for a season that might not finish. Veldheer and Dareus, if they're around after week one, may still be targets.

I'd like to root for Ento, as well, and I want to keep him on the PS; but Samuels has clearly popped more and Ento got injured today.

I agree about Redmond, but I wouldn't be surprised if veteran experience is valued, given Greene's lack of actual playing time (and the fact that he's missed 2 straight practices now), Savage's youth, and Scott's lack of pedigree. I haven't heard a peep about Redmond, though. He's probably my last on the roster. Genuinely considered Dexter Williams over him. But I disagree that Jackson has any versatility. The team, the beat reporters, and Jackson himself all attest to the fact that Jackson has been asked to focus on CB, has only played the boundary, and has thus improved. There's no reason to talk about him as versatile anymore. Moving him around didn't work. They found his best spot.