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Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 06:25
by Drj820
TheSkeptic wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 05:44
Drj820 wrote: ↑08 Dec 2021 13:12
NCF wrote: ↑08 Dec 2021 13:08
You can believe that if you want to, but at $40M+ cap charge, they really, really can't.
Of course they can, if they want to.
What you point out is just something that would make them not want to.
I would say that a $40 million cap hit is plenty of reason. Do you really want to let Adams and Tonyan and Campbell and Yiadom walk and cut Z and/or Preston as a cap cut in order to keep Rodgers? Probably have to do major restructuring on Bakh and Clark also, which puts the Packers in dead cap hell if they should get hurt and have to retire. $40 mil is a lot of money. While the Packers could certainly restructure Rodger's contract, there is no incentive for him to agree unless they give him an even better deal. An even better deal means the Packers are in even worse salary cap hell long term.
Personally I think it is worse than that. I don't think there is any way the Packers can resign any of these 4 UFA players and I think they will have to cut both Z and Preston to keep Rodgers for 1 more year. To keep him for 2 more years they can't resign Alexander or Jenkins or any other very good player who emerges in the meantime.
Love + Adams >= Rodgers
Love + Adams + Tonyan >> Rodgers
Love + Adams + Tonyan + Campbell >>> Rodgers
Shall I continue? And if you really don't like Love, substitute any average NFL QB for Love.
Or:
Benkert + Adams + Tonyan > Rodgers
Benkert + Adams + Tonyan + Campbell >> Rodgers
I am not expecting either Love or Benkert to be anything more than an average NFL QB. Either one. I think 1 of them is likely to be average. And if you think a team cannot win the SB with an average NFL QB, explain to me why Eli Manning has 2 SB rings.
Trade Rodgers and start Love. Maybe the Packers won't make the playoffs in 2022/23. But they won't in 2023 with Rodgers and without Adams, Tonya, Campbell and a competent backup LT either, especially with Jenkins likely to start the season on PUP. Losing Jenkins and Alexander and others a year later means a 4-13 or similar season for the Packers in 23/24.
Oh, and if you think that MLF is going to stick around for 4-13 seasons while the Packers work through the Rodgers damage, think again. His contract is done in 2 years also.
I for one remember how long it took the Packers to recover from John Hadl.
I for one also remember Bengston and Devine and Starr and Gregg and Infante and Rhodes and Sherman as head coaches too.
I appreciate the time you put into this well thought out post that lists reasons why the Packers SHOULD move on from Rodgers. Your reasons are rational and are unsurprising considering you wanted to move on from Rodgers before this season.
However, the reasons you list do not change the fact that the Packers CAN keep their franchise QB if they want to...and it is within their rights to do so..because he is still under contract.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 06:34
by TheSkeptic
Drj820 wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 06:25
I appreciate the time you put into this well thought out post that lists reasons why the Packers SHOULD move on from Rodgers. Your reasons are rational and are unsurprising considering you wanted to move on from Rodgers before this season.
However, the reasons you list do not change the fact that the Packers CAN keep their franchise QB if they want to...and it is within their rights to do so..because he is still under contract.
Not quite. They can if he does not want to play hardball. He can retire. He can hold out. There is an old proverb, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink. They can keep Rodgers under contract but they can't make him put on the uniform much less put in the film and practice time to play well.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 06:43
by go pak go
I think [mention]NCF[/mention] summarized best the practical way to actually have Rodgers stay in GB that makes sense for both parties.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 07:09
by APB
NCF wrote: ↑08 Dec 2021 10:55
bobsacamano wrote: ↑08 Dec 2021 10:27
Waldo wrote: ↑09 Nov 2021 09:28
Nice thing with Love is there is no reason to give him 2 seasons. If he bombs it his first season starting, team should immediately think another high pick at QB. No need to string it along a few years.
I see zero chance Rodgers is still with the Packers next year.
I bet he is.
Requires a couple things...
1.) Fat new contract with a whole lot of value pushed out to future years
2.) Close the door on Jordan Love. These two are tied. If you commit to Rodgers, you move on from Love.
3.) Rodgers has to accept that he will be playing on a lesser team in 2022 and maybe 2023. The cap will dictate this. No way around it.
I think as much as the Packers committing to Rodgers, Rodgers almost has to commit to the Packers for another 5-6 seasons to make it viable and accept that the cap reality means we essentially need to rebuild the team around him to open a new window in 2023 or 2024.
I certainly cannot rule it out, but I still think it is unlikely.
Curious why you think #2 is required? Is it a personal thing with Rodgers or a contractual thing as Love's (relatively) cheap rookie deal expires?
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 07:23
by Yoop
APB wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:09
NCF wrote: ↑08 Dec 2021 10:55
Requires a couple things...
1.) Fat new contract with a whole lot of value pushed out to future years
2.) Close the door on Jordan Love. These two are tied. If you commit to Rodgers, you move on from Love.
3.) Rodgers has to accept that he will be playing on a lesser team in 2022 and maybe 2023. The cap will dictate this. No way around it.
I think as much as the Packers committing to Rodgers, Rodgers almost has to commit to the Packers for another 5-6 seasons to make it viable and accept that the cap reality means we essentially need to rebuild the team around him to open a new window in 2023 or 2024.
I certainly cannot rule it out, but I still think it is unlikely.
Curious why you think #2 is required? Is it a personal thing with Rodgers or a contractual thing as Love's (relatively) cheap rookie deal expires?
Good question, why would we have to trade or get rid of Love? he's not ready to start for us or any other team, that was made obvious a few weeks back when Rodgers was forced to sit, why not keep grooming him another year or two, hoping he does well as a back up, and maybe he will be good enough when Rodgers does retire in a couple more years.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 07:35
by go pak go
Yeah the Packers don't have to get rid of Love and can certainly keep him as a backup for the next two seasons or even three.
The Packers hold the rights to Love technically through the 2024 season. So if Rodgers says, "I want to play through 2024, I guess it could make sense to keep Love.
Either way, the Packers and Rodgers will need to have a pow wow after the season and discuss the reality of the situation. As [mention]NCF[/mention] said, the Packers regardless won't be able to field as competitive of a team in 2022. Sure we would have Rodgers and "always got a shot with Rodgers, yada yada," but finding a way to keep Rodgers and Adams is a stretch and I don't think Rodgers wants to stay in GB if he can't play with Davante.
The Packers will need to go through some sort of rebuild regardless in 2022 and hope for one last shot in that 2023 - 2025 season and I honestly don't think that is in the best interest of Rodgers or even the Packers.
Especially if they win a SB, my guess is both parties will be happy about the run they had, understand it was awesome and repeating it will be really difficult unless Rodgers is willing to take a pay reduction which he has stated many times that he has no interest in doing.
The only way I think it makes sense to keep Rodgers in GB is if he pulls a Brady and says he wants to play for a long time still and get paid Brady money to free up space for the Packers knowing that Gutey is willing to use that money more than Ted did in the past.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 07:36
by paco
Yoop wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:23
APB wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:09
NCF wrote: ↑08 Dec 2021 10:55
Requires a couple things...
1.) Fat new contract with a whole lot of value pushed out to future years
2.) Close the door on Jordan Love. These two are tied. If you commit to Rodgers, you move on from Love.
3.) Rodgers has to accept that he will be playing on a lesser team in 2022 and maybe 2023. The cap will dictate this. No way around it.
I think as much as the Packers committing to Rodgers, Rodgers almost has to commit to the Packers for another 5-6 seasons to make it viable and accept that the cap reality means we essentially need to rebuild the team around him to open a new window in 2023 or 2024.
I certainly cannot rule it out, but I still think it is unlikely.
Curious why you think #2 is required? Is it a personal thing with Rodgers or a contractual thing as Love's (relatively) cheap rookie deal expires?
Good question, why would we have to trade or get rid of Love? he's not ready to start for us or any other team, that was made obvious a few weeks back when Rodgers was forced to sit, why not keep grooming him another year or two, hoping he does well as a back up, and maybe he will be good enough when Rodgers does retire in a couple more years.
Very possible that if we re-do a Rodgers contract to keep him around several more years that Love asks for a trade/release. Rodgers was ready to do the same thing himself if we bowed to Favre's will again.
I'm still in the camp that there is about a 0.00000000000000001% chance Rodgers is on the team next year. But I think there is even less chance both guys are on the team, 1 is gone. IF there is a year to move Love, it might be this one as it sounds like this isn't considered a very good QB class.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 07:55
by Drj820
Wonder if we groomed Love for a solid decade and really let him get those reps in practice where he works on his footwork and logs about 10,000 hours of film study, if by the time he is about 30 we could get hall of fame level play out of him until he turns 40.
Maybe a solid decade is the appropriate time before we really judge him or see what he’s all about. He will be without excuse by then.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 08:24
by APB
paco wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:36
Very possible that if we re-do a Rodgers contract to keep him around several more years that Love asks for a trade/release. Rodgers was ready to do the same thing himself if we bowed to Favre's will again.
And if the Packers don't acquiesce? What leverage does Love have at that point?
I don't think a Love holdout would create a massive amount of turmoil on the team or in the media. Love has not publicly shown he's undeniably capable on the field nor has he garnered any significant amount of public support. If you remember, the fanbase was split roughly 50/50 during the Favre/Rodgers mayhem largely because of how Rodgers had performed in his limited play. I don't think Love would have much, if any, public support at this point based on public perception of his abilities. Public pressure on the organization to do
something would be virtually nil.
Also, he's made some money at this point but we're not talking generational wealth. A holdout would cost him financially. If he insists, though, what's to stop the Packers from simply putting him on the NFI list (or whatever list there is for holdouts) and roll with Benkert as backup and wait for Love to realize his leverage limitations?
In short, I think if Love went that route, he'd lose that fight.
*Disclaimer: this assumes Bill O'Brien does not resurface again somewhere and allowed free reign over a team's player acquisitions. All bets are off in that instance.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 08:34
by Yoop
paco wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:36
Yoop wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:23
APB wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:09
Curious why you think #2 is required? Is it a personal thing with Rodgers or a contractual thing as Love's (relatively) cheap rookie deal expires?
Good question, why would we have to trade or get rid of Love? he's not ready to start for us or any other team, that was made obvious a few weeks back when Rodgers was forced to sit, why not keep grooming him another year or two, hoping he does well as a back up, and maybe he will be good enough when Rodgers does retire in a couple more years.
Very possible that if we re-do a Rodgers contract to keep him around several more years that Love asks for a trade/release. Rodgers was ready to do the same thing himself if we bowed to Favre's will again.
I'm still in the camp that there is about a 0.00000000000000001% chance Rodgers is on the team next year. But I think there is even less chance both guys are on the team, 1 is gone. IF there is a year to move Love, it might be this one as it sounds like this isn't considered a very good QB class.
anything is possible I guess, I'd hate to see Love as our starter next year, most QB's fail imo because they can't deal with the speed of the pro game and are asked to try to quickly, grooming up Love another year would really help him.
Rodgers was the same way, pass rush forces quick decisions, and like Love, Rodgers made poor ones his first couple seasons, Favre did too, but he was still the best we had, and was able to block out his failures, imho though that is rare, I think many become over come with doing poorly and it snow balls there career, as someone ( maybe Yoho) said, they revert back to poor tech to over come there disadvantages and then your back to square one, sitting and grooming longer solidifies better muscle memory, it takes time to unlearn poor tech and learning new stuff, baptism under fire so to speak has never had a good track record.
I don't have any idea who our QB will be though next year
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 08:39
by NCF
APB wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:09
NCF wrote: ↑08 Dec 2021 10:55
Requires a couple things...
1.) Fat new contract with a whole lot of value pushed out to future years
2.) Close the door on Jordan Love. These two are tied. If you commit to Rodgers, you move on from Love.
3.) Rodgers has to accept that he will be playing on a lesser team in 2022 and maybe 2023. The cap will dictate this. No way around it.
I think as much as the Packers committing to Rodgers, Rodgers almost has to commit to the Packers for another 5-6 seasons to make it viable and accept that the cap reality means we essentially need to rebuild the team around him to open a new window in 2023 or 2024.
I certainly cannot rule it out, but I still think it is unlikely.
Curious why you think #2 is required? Is it a personal thing with Rodgers or a contractual thing as Love's (relatively) cheap rookie deal expires?
I think organizationally, you have to. As a 1st-round QB, you get a shot, period. I could see his agent getting involved and it would just get messy. You don't need a malcontent as your back-up QB. Plus, I think it's the fair thing to do. At some point a decision has to be made. We are going with Rodgers or we are going with Love. Whenever that decision is made (see point #1, above) the other guy is not going to want to be here and I think the Packers understand that fully and will make the necessary move.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 09:25
by APB
NCF wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 08:39
APB wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 07:09
NCF wrote: ↑08 Dec 2021 10:55
Requires a couple things...
1.) Fat new contract with a whole lot of value pushed out to future years
2.) Close the door on Jordan Love. These two are tied. If you commit to Rodgers, you move on from Love.
3.) Rodgers has to accept that he will be playing on a lesser team in 2022 and maybe 2023. The cap will dictate this. No way around it.
I think as much as the Packers committing to Rodgers, Rodgers almost has to commit to the Packers for another 5-6 seasons to make it viable and accept that the cap reality means we essentially need to rebuild the team around him to open a new window in 2023 or 2024.
I certainly cannot rule it out, but I still think it is unlikely.
Curious why you think #2 is required? Is it a personal thing with Rodgers or a contractual thing as Love's (relatively) cheap rookie deal expires?
I think organizationally, you have to. As a 1st-round QB, you get a shot, period. I could see his agent getting involved and it would just get messy. You don't need a malcontent as your back-up QB. Plus, I think it's the fair thing to do. At some point a decision has to be made. We are going with Rodgers or we are going with Love. Whenever that decision is made (see point #1, above) the other guy is not going to want to be here and I think the Packers understand that fully and will make the necessary move.
Unless the organization is able to trade him for value, I'd be disappointed if the team simply dumped him while still under contract.
The GMs top priority is to field the best possible roster to compete for a championship. The Packers have provided Love plenty of coaching and development that justifies wanting to retain him on the roster in order to realize any return on their investment should it become necessary. The Packers don't
owe him his release simply because his feelings got hurt over not getting any playing time.
Fair or not, you compete for playing time. If you're not good enough to unseat the starter, you sit regardless of your draft status. Rich Campbell comes to mind. No. 1 choice in the 80s who, in year 3, was surpassed on the depth chart by rookie Randy Wright. Yeah, it's a different day and age but the principle remains the same: you suck, you sit.
And as I alluded to earlier, if his agent rose a stink over it, I'd wager it turns out bad for Jordan. He hasn't built enough capital with the public or organization to be making roster demands. Would the team deal him in that instance? Like you, I suspect they would but I'm not convinced of it. I think there'd be serious consideration given to holding onto him should no reasonable offer present itself. Rightly so, IMO.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 09:31
by paco
Yoop wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 08:34
I don't have any idea who our QB will be though next year
It's going to be Love. I'll sig/av bet anyone until the cows come home. Rodgers gone. Love starting (injuries or Love suddenly retiring aside).
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 09:36
by go pak go
paco wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:31
Yoop wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 08:34
I don't have any idea who our QB will be though next year
It's going to be Love. I'll sig/av bet anyone until the cows come home. Rodgers gone. Love starting (injuries or Love suddenly retiring aside).
This is my bet as well.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 09:38
by APB
go pak go wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:36
paco wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:31
Yoop wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 08:34
I don't have any idea who our QB will be though next year
It's going to be Love. I'll sig/av bet anyone until the cows come home. Rodgers gone. Love starting (injuries or Love suddenly retiring aside).
This is my bet as well.
If I were to place a wager, that'd be my bet as well. I do, however, think there is greater than a 0.00000000000000001% chance Rodgers will be back.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 09:44
by go pak go
APB wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:38
go pak go wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:36
paco wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:31
It's going to be Love. I'll sig/av bet anyone until the cows come home. Rodgers gone. Love starting (injuries or Love suddenly retiring aside).
This is my bet as well.
If I were to place a wager, that'd be my bet as well. I do, however, think there is greater than a 0.00000000000000001% chance Rodgers will be back.
I would agree with that.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 09:46
by APB
go pak go wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:44
APB wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:38
go pak go wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:36
This is my bet as well.
If I were to place a wager, that'd be my bet as well. I do, however, think there is greater than a 0.00000000000000001% chance Rodgers will be back.
I would agree with that.
[mention]paco[/mention] needs convincing...
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 09:53
by Yoop
paco wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:31
Yoop wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 08:34
I don't have any idea who our QB will be though next year
It's going to be Love. I'll sig/av bet anyone until the cows come home. Rodgers gone. Love starting (injuries or Love suddenly retiring aside).
only if Rodgers wants to leave, Guty isn't stupid, he knows our best chance to win, and thats with any roster changes, is with Rodgers, so imho the ball is in Rodgers quart, obviously if he stays we will lose some talent, so in that sense it will be harder to make the playoffs or win once there, and if winning is all Rodgers cares about then I expect he'll want to leave.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 09:54
by go pak go
My biggest thing right now is the following:
1. I hope Love comes back quick to continue getting those practice reps. Very valuable right now.
2. Winning the SB here makes everything much, much easier. I thought the same thing last year. Winning a SB means "mission accomplished". Rodgers gets that #2 ring to put him in that +1 SB ring group and Rodgers wins a ring when he is the clear leader of the team. The Packers also get the ring for "one for the thumb" and gets 3 rings in 25 years or so. It is easier to move onto a new era if we feel like the old era was accomplished.
Now the biggest thing is what will be that new era? Certainly we are due for sucking. So that is the scary part.
Re: Jordan Love Discussion
Posted: 09 Dec 2021 10:06
by Yoop
go pak go wrote: ↑09 Dec 2021 09:54
My biggest thing right now is the following:
1. I hope Love comes back quick to continue getting those practice reps. Very valuable right now.
2. Winning the SB here makes everything much, much easier. I thought the same thing last year. Winning a SB means "mission accomplished". Rodgers gets that #2 ring to put him in that +1 SB ring group and Rodgers wins a ring when he is the clear leader of the team. The Packers also get the ring for "one for the thumb" and gets 3 rings in 25 years or so. It is easier to move onto a new era if we feel like the old era was accomplished.
Now the biggest thing is what will be that new era? Certainly we are due for sucking. So that is the scary part.
why not just go for two, while you and others here don't think it's financially possible to keep most of this team together for another run next year, ( and you all have made great points as to why we can't) I certainly think Guty and the FO will try to, we can back load a few more contracts, and just because Rodgers hasn't talked of taking a cut in salary to help the team, who actually has talked about that stuff prior to doing it? know one I know of, if there is one thing I know of is, people change there mind, situations change, and people change with them, so who knows, I've lost some respect for Rodgers lately, but I know what side my bread is buttered on, and there is no sight of Butter any where around Love right now for me.