Packers Huddle

Yoop when I'm right and he sees Rodgers in another uniform.

paco wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 10:31

Yoop when I'm right and he sees Rodgers in another uniform.

My thoughts on the four scenarios:

1) AR is extended and Love traded - It's possible, but all depends on whether AR is willing to commit long term, and he's a complicated fella. From his perspective, we need a rebuilding year, but there have been plenty of good draft picks and long-term talent to maintain a helluva core to build on sooner rather than later. There will be cap casualties, but we can hold onto the young ones. A 1-year rebuild isn't the worst thing in the world if you're committed for 5 years or so. It'll take 2 to 3 years for the next all-in effort tho, will he have patience for that? Love's trade value is a total question mark. He didn't shine in his only start, but the arm talent is there and he has gotten quality coaching the new team doesn't have to spend time on. In a weak QB draft year, I could envision some teams ending up in a bidding war for Love's services instead of rolling the die on a lesser or rawer draft prospect. If no bidding war happens, I don't like giving him up for cheap.

2) AR is extended and we keep Love - Hard to find a quality backup for lesser money, so I wouldn't count this option out. Love is probably itching for his chance, but maybe his rough game convinced him one more year of learning on the bench isn't worth rioting over. As for his trade value it's a toss up between one less cheap rookie deal year vs the chance he actually gets to play and show improvement. Who knows. I doubt AR would demand getting rid of Love if he's extended, Rodgers would be safe via the new contract alone. He would've beaten the specter of getting replaced, anyways.

3) AR is traded and we roll with Love - Doesn't depend much on AR's whims, and Love should be plenty coached up to take over. AR's trade value will be massive, especially if there are several teams who want him and to whom AR can agree to go to. Also immense are the cap savings, at least short term. If you believe that a strong team can compensate for the lack of a great QB, this is your move. Also the move for the greedy ones, the ones who are willing to take a huge risk for the small possibility that Love is another Great One, and since he'll be cheap for his rookie deal and low cap charge in early years of an extension, there will be space for splash signings after a cap dump year, and a lot of early picks, too. This is the lottery ticket with the chance to win an all-time great team (for a short time). The risk is huge, tho. Finding winning QBs is haaard. If Love sucks, and the one we'd get to replace him also sucks, we'd dive head on into a long period of bad things.

4) AR stays on current contract, do whatever with Love - Yeah, no. Maybe theoretically doable by gutting the roster of vets, being creative with extensions and tightening the belt 'til your belly button becomes a third tit. Again, theoretically this would be an alternative to option 1, suffering AR's biggest cap hit now and extending him after next season. Then you'd have a couple of years of relatively low great QB cap hit. The cost is zero chance at keeping Davante, Rasul, Campbell, Tonyan, MVS or any other 2022 free agents. 2022 Packers' fortunes would depend solely on an amazing insta-impact draft, since there would be no money to spend anywhere.

Overall, I really hope AR figures out what he wants early. If he's willing to commit, we roll with him. If he doesn't do that, it'll be a wild off-season for Gutey.

We are currently sitting $34,066,858 over the cap. So right off the bat we have get some cuts in before the new league starts.

Here are all the players with a cap savings over $1M, not including Rodgers:

Z Smith - $15.75M
J Alexander - $13.294M
P Smith - $12.5M
A Amos - $7.9M
R. Cobb -- $6.858334M
K Clark - $5.65M
B Turner - $4.1075M
D Lowry - $3.934M
M Crosby - $2.395M
E Jenkins - $1.420066M

We aren't cutting Alexander, Clark, and Jenkins. That just is not happening. We would have to cut one of the Smiths, if not both. If you do not cut both you can BARELY get under the cap by cutting Z Smith, Amos, Turner, Lowry, and Crosby. If we keep Z Smith and cut P Smith, then we have to cut both of Amos and Cobb.

In reality, if we keep Rodgers we almost have to dump Z Smith. Dumping both Z Smith and P Smith would put us VERY VERY thin at OLB. So, let's go with cutting Z Smith, Amos, Turner, Lowry, Crosby for a $34.0865M savings. It gets us just under the cap and we get to keep P. Smith and R. Cobb.

So it is now post start of new league year. We cut 5 guys and now only have 35 guys on the active roster. If we filled the remainder of the 53 with all rookie minimums of $825K it would give us a cap hit of $14.85M. So now we have to cut P Smith at the least, but more likely you need to cut R Cobb too because not all 18 guys will be minimum AND we need draft picks, call ups, and practice squad players.

To realistically keep Aaron Rodgers on his current salary, you need to cut these players before the 2022 season:
Z Smith
P Smith
A Amos
R Cobb
B Turner
D Lowry
M Crosby

Would Rodgers stay on for that? Probably not, so you restructure 2022 and go through 2025. Drop his cap hit to around $20 million for 2022 and save about $26 million in 2022. Cut Z. Smith and we are... ok. We still have only 2 WRs under contract. This doesn't address signing any of our FAs, let alone other free agents, AND by extending Rodgers you are pushing the real pain several years down the road in exchange for lesser pain in the short term in the form of a roster with declining talent.

Personally I would take the hit in 2022 and start the rebuild.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 12:48

Personally I would take the hit in 2022 and start the rebuild.

Nice breakdown. This is all of the players we have that we can cut to create 2022 cap space. That doesn't even list out the guys we are potentially already losing because they are free agents, like Davante, MVS, Tonyan, Sullivan, Campbell, Patrick, Bojo, etc.

I’d be all for extending Jaire and Amos.

Would bet you could probably save close to
10 million on the cap, more likely 7-8.


If we keep either Smith, would probably make sense to extend them a bit too, also freeing up some more.


I wager you got 12-15 million in savings extending Jaire, Amos and either Smith.


Cobb, Crosby and the other Smith is a good 20+.


That would be with Aaron on roster, you’d be just about there.


Move on from Rodgers. Then we can talk about Adams, Lazard, Tonyan, MVS, Campbell, Douglas, etc.

BF004 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 13:31

I’d be all for extending Jaire and Amos.

Would bet you could probably save close to
10 million on the cap, more likely 7-8.


If we keep either Smith, would probably make sense to extend them a bit too, also freeing up some more.


I wager you got 12-15 million in savings extending Jaire, Amos and either Smith.

Absolutely, something I did not get into was extensions for some of those guys and it would make a lot of sense.
Alexander - FOREVER
Amos - 4 years
P Smith - 3 years
Z Smith - 3 years
Turner - 2-3 years
Lowry - 2-3 years

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 12:48

Would Rodgers stay on for that? Probably not, so you restructure 2022 and go through 2025. Drop his cap hit to around $20 million for 2022 and save about $26 million in 2022. Cut Z. Smith and we are... ok. We still have only 2 WRs under contract. This doesn't address signing any of our FAs, let alone other free agents, AND by extending Rodgers you are pushing the real pain several years down the road in exchange for lesser pain in the short term in the form of a roster with declining talent.

Personally I would take the hit in 2022 and start the rebuild.

It's so much harder to win with a average, heck even a above average QB that I'd cut a couple players to keep Rodgers, I don't expect Z Smith back, never did, Cobb either, ( hope Amari does well in his absence) Adams is the tough one, we shouldn't have gotten ourselves into this predicament, but thats another story, I'd rather try to replace a WR then most of the other positions we have expensive talent, I think it's easier for WR to play well year one then most other positions, Amari so far being a exception, but thats mostly because he's bulked up like a RB.

Yoop wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:21

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 12:48

Would Rodgers stay on for that? Probably not, so you restructure 2022 and go through 2025. Drop his cap hit to around $20 million for 2022 and save about $26 million in 2022. Cut Z. Smith and we are... ok. We still have only 2 WRs under contract. This doesn't address signing any of our FAs, let alone other free agents, AND by extending Rodgers you are pushing the real pain several years down the road in exchange for lesser pain in the short term in the form of a roster with declining talent.

Personally I would take the hit in 2022 and start the rebuild.

It's so much harder to win with a average, heck even a above average QB that I'd cut a couple players to keep Rodgers, I don't expect Z Smith back, never did, Cobb either, ( hope Amari does well in his absence) Adams is the tough one, we shouldn't have gotten ourselves into this predicament, but thats another story, I'd rather try to replace a WR then most of the other positions we have expensive talent, I think it's easier for WR to play well year one then most other positions, Amari so far being a exception, but thats mostly because he's bulked up like a RB.

I too hope we can find a way to keep Rodgers, even if it means cutting a couple of players.

But it is easier now than ever to win with average at QB.

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:42

Yoop wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:21

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 12:48

Would Rodgers stay on for that? Probably not, so you restructure 2022 and go through 2025. Drop his cap hit to around $20 million for 2022 and save about $26 million in 2022. Cut Z. Smith and we are... ok. We still have only 2 WRs under contract. This doesn't address signing any of our FAs, let alone other free agents, AND by extending Rodgers you are pushing the real pain several years down the road in exchange for lesser pain in the short term in the form of a roster with declining talent.

Personally I would take the hit in 2022 and start the rebuild.

It's so much harder to win with a average, heck even a above average QB that I'd cut a couple players to keep Rodgers, I don't expect Z Smith back, never did, Cobb either, ( hope Amari does well in his absence) Adams is the tough one, we shouldn't have gotten ourselves into this predicament, but thats another story, I'd rather try to replace a WR then most of the other positions we have expensive talent, I think it's easier for WR to play well year one then most other positions, Amari so far being a exception, but thats mostly because he's bulked up like a RB.

I too hope we can find a way to keep Rodgers, even if it means cutting a couple of players.

But it is easier now than ever to win with average at QB.

win what, games, divisions, playoff games, or super bowls?

Drj820 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:44

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:42

Yoop wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:21

It's so much harder to win with a average, heck even a above average QB that I'd cut a couple players to keep Rodgers, I don't expect Z Smith back, never did, Cobb either, ( hope Amari does well in his absence) Adams is the tough one, we shouldn't have gotten ourselves into this predicament, but thats another story, I'd rather try to replace a WR then most of the other positions we have expensive talent, I think it's easier for WR to play well year one then most other positions, Amari so far being a exception, but thats mostly because he's bulked up like a RB.

I too hope we can find a way to keep Rodgers, even if it means cutting a couple of players.

But it is easier now than ever to win with average at QB.

win what, games, divisions, playoff games, or super bowls?

There are 2 elite QB's left in the game, maybe 3 who at one point earlier in their careers had to play the position when QB's had to be scared of getting lit up and when DB's could mug receivers and get away with it. One of them has won 4 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Of the 6 that he did not win, 4 were won with average QB's.

If the Cowboys had Dak as their QB 15 years ago, he never would've been given the contract that he was given and they'd still be searching for a franchise QB.

Guys like Kirk Cousins would have been journeymen.

Both of those guys are unremarkable compared to "average" NFL QB's of the past, and yet they win games.

So I guess my point is that if it weren't for Tom Brady, one of the last of a dying breed, we'd be seeing a lot more average QB's with Super Bowl rings.

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 15:05

Drj820 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:44

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:42

I too hope we can find a way to keep Rodgers, even if it means cutting a couple of players.

But it is easier now than ever to win with average at QB.

win what, games, divisions, playoff games, or super bowls?

There are 2 elite QB's left in the game, maybe 3 who at one point earlier in their careers had to play the position when QB's had to be scared of getting lit up and when DB's could mug receivers and get away with it. One of them has won 4 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Of the 6 that he did not win, 4 were won with average QB's.

If the Cowboys had Dak as their QB 15 years ago, he never would've been given the contract that he was given and they'd still be searching for a franchise QB.

Guys like Kirk Cousins would have been journeymen.

Both of those guys are unremarkable compared to "average" NFL QB's of the past, and yet they win games.

So I guess my point is that if it weren't for Tom Brady, one of the last of a dying breed, we'd be seeing a lot more average QB's with Super Bowl rings.

Dak and Kirk both have won nothing in this league.

Recently, I give you jimmy g and goff who both made the big game...and then lost to an elite QB.

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 15:05

Drj820 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:44

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:42

I too hope we can find a way to keep Rodgers, even if it means cutting a couple of players.

But it is easier now than ever to win with average at QB.

win what, games, divisions, playoff games, or super bowls?

There are 2 elite QB's left in the game, maybe 3 who at one point earlier in their careers had to play the position when QB's had to be scared of getting lit up and when DB's could mug receivers and get away with it. One of them has won 4 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Of the 6 that he did not win, 4 were won with average QB's.

If the Cowboys had Dak as their QB 15 years ago, he never would've been given the contract that he was given and they'd still be searching for a franchise QB.

Guys like Kirk Cousins would have been journeymen.

Both of those guys are unremarkable compared to "average" NFL QB's of the past, and yet they win games.

So I guess my point is that if it weren't for Tom Brady, one of the last of a dying breed, we'd be seeing a lot more average QB's with Super Bowl rings.

your opinion of what constitutes average is so screwed up it's beyond reason, none of these guys is average, just because Brady played for a coach that helped him win more then others his skill set isn't that much better then some of the others on this list, and Brady was hit and sacked less then anyone else on this list, also, DB's havn't been allowed to mug receivers for over a decade, your impression that Brady is the last throw back QB, or even close to tells me you've not watched Brady play that much, he's been one of the best protected QB's the last 2 decades

Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs

Yoop wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 07:14

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 15:05

Drj820 wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 14:44

win what, games, divisions, playoff games, or super bowls?

There are 2 elite QB's left in the game, maybe 3 who at one point earlier in their careers had to play the position when QB's had to be scared of getting lit up and when DB's could mug receivers and get away with it. One of them has won 4 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Of the 6 that he did not win, 4 were won with average QB's.

If the Cowboys had Dak as their QB 15 years ago, he never would've been given the contract that he was given and they'd still be searching for a franchise QB.

Guys like Kirk Cousins would have been journeymen.

Both of those guys are unremarkable compared to "average" NFL QB's of the past, and yet they win games.

So I guess my point is that if it weren't for Tom Brady, one of the last of a dying breed, we'd be seeing a lot more average QB's with Super Bowl rings.

your opinion of what constitutes average is so screwed up it's beyond reason, none of these guys is average, just because Brady played for a coach that helped him win more then others his skill set isn't that much better then some of the others on this list, and Brady was hit and sacked less then anyone else on this list, also, DB's havn't been allowed to mug receivers for over a decade, your impression that Brady is the last throw back QB, or even close to tells me you've not watched Brady play that much, he's been one of the best protected QB's the last 2 decades

Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs

Foles - Average
2015 Manning - Average
Flacco - Average
Eli - Average
2013 Russell Wilson - Average

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 11:39

Yoop wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 07:14

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

09 Dec 2021 15:05

There are 2 elite QB's left in the game, maybe 3 who at one point earlier in their careers had to play the position when QB's had to be scared of getting lit up and when DB's could mug receivers and get away with it. One of them has won 4 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Of the 6 that he did not win, 4 were won with average QB's.

If the Cowboys had Dak as their QB 15 years ago, he never would've been given the contract that he was given and they'd still be searching for a franchise QB.

Guys like Kirk Cousins would have been journeymen.

Both of those guys are unremarkable compared to "average" NFL QB's of the past, and yet they win games.

So I guess my point is that if it weren't for Tom Brady, one of the last of a dying breed, we'd be seeing a lot more average QB's with Super Bowl rings.

your opinion of what constitutes average is so screwed up it's beyond reason, none of these guys is average, just because Brady played for a coach that helped him win more then others his skill set isn't that much better then some of the others on this list, and Brady was hit and sacked less then anyone else on this list, also, DB's havn't been allowed to mug receivers for over a decade, your impression that Brady is the last throw back QB, or even close to tells me you've not watched Brady play that much, he's been one of the best protected QB's the last 2 decades

Super Bowl 43: Ben Roethlisberger (Santonio Holmes), 1 TD
Super Bowl 44: Drew Brees (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 45: Aaron Rogers (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 46: Eli Manning (MVP), 1 TD
Super Bowl 47: Joe Flacco (MVP), 3TDs
Super Bowl 48: Russell Wilson (Malcolm Smith), 2TDs
Super Bowl 49: Tom Brady (MVP), 4TDs
Super Bowl 50: Peyton Manning (Von Miller), 0TDs
Super Bowl 51: Tom Brady (MVP), 2TDs
Super Bowl 52: Nick Foles (MVP), 3 TDs
Super Bowl 53: Tom Brady (Julian Edelman), 0TDs
Super Bowl 54: Patrick Mahomes (MVP), 2 TDs
Super Bowl 55: Tom Brady (MVP), 3 TDs

Foles - Average
2015 Manning - Average
Flacco - Average
Eli - Average
2013 Russell Wilson - Average

some weird comments in the forum today, you think SB winning MVP QB's are average, and some here don't consider the Vikings a formidable opponent.

I disagree with both opinions, the Vikings play us tight, they are a tough matchup, there nemesis is that they are there own worst enemy, make to many mistakes, even so typically the outcomes are one score games.

some of these QB's have been hot and cold, and thats mostly the result of the supporting cast, and while a couple there didn't excel with great stats winning the SB that doesn't make them average, hell 4 of the 5 you listed where given MVP awards for there play, and anyone who considers Russell Wilson average is not to be taken seriously, come on Bud, try and get the train back on the rails

Yoop wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 12:19

I disagree with both opinions, the Vikings play us tight, they are a tough matchup, there nemesis is that they are there own worst enemy, make to many mistakes, even so typically the outcomes are one score games.

I am one with a strong take on the Vikings, so I will address your point. I mean, of course, they are tough match-up. So are the Lions. They are a divisional opponent. They are a prideful team. They are professionals. There aren't consistent blow outs in the NFL each week. Games are close. Great teams win at a greater clip. I am not saying we should never lose to the Vikings. I am saying I will bet a ton of money that they are not good enough to win 3-4 in a row against us like dominant teams do in their division... like we do to the rest of the NFCN.

If you have legitimate fear that this Packers team could lose a home playoff game to this Vikings team... I don't know what to say. I guess it would certainly shape my opinion of LaFleur and this coaching staff to take this team that we have seen for 12 weeks and !@#$ the bed with it. I just don't see it... and I know it happens, but seriously, let's play the odds here.

NCF wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 12:26

Yoop wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 12:19

I disagree with both opinions, the Vikings play us tight, they are a tough matchup, there nemesis is that they are there own worst enemy, make to many mistakes, even so typically the outcomes are one score games.

I am one with a strong take on the Vikings, so I will address your point. I mean, of course, they are tough match-up. So are the Lions. They are a divisional opponent. They are a prideful team. They are professionals. There aren't consistent blow outs in the NFL each week. Games are close. Great teams win at a greater clip. I am not saying we should never lose to the Vikings. I am saying I will bet a ton of money that they are not good enough to win 3-4 in a row against us like dominant teams do in their division... like we do to the rest of the NFCN.

If you have legitimate fear that this Packers team could lose a home playoff game to this Vikings team... I don't know what to say. I guess it would certainly shape my opinion of LaFleur and this coaching staff to take this team that we have seen for 12 weeks and !@#$ the bed with it. I just don't see it... and I know it happens, but seriously, let's play the odds here.

the toughest teams we play all have very good front 7's they clog the run lanes and take away the short passing, and that describes the Vikings, imho they are a tougher matchup then either of Chicago or DEtroit, and the record points that out, we are near 50/50 against the Vikes, and Jefferson and Cooks are a night mare for any defense

I don't want to play any divisional opponent in the PO's, and foremost this season against the Vikings, I think you guys are taking them far to lightly.

Yoop wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 12:19

Russell Wilson average is not to be taken seriously

Of course he's not average now- his game has developed significantly since 2013. But in 2013 I saw a young QB who was one of the very first to successfully use the NFL's revamped PI criteria to tilt the game in his favor. I hated watching Russell Wilson in 2013 because there is relatively little skill required to toss up an uncatchable deep ball and cross your fingers that a PI flag will be thrown. But that's exactly what he did and I watched it pay off many times for him.

Anyway, regarding the thread topic- if I believed we had something in Love I'd be more inclined to say let AR walk. But based on what I've seen I'm not confident that Love can be an average QB even by today's standards. So yeah, I really hope we find a way to keep Aaron around.

Captain_Ben wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 14:03

Yoop wrote: ↑

10 Dec 2021 12:19

Russell Wilson average is not to be taken seriously

Of course he's not average now- his game has developed significantly since 2013. But in 2013 I saw a young QB who was one of the very first to successfully use the NFL's revamped PI criteria to tilt the game in his favor. I hated watching Russell Wilson in 2013 because there is relatively little skill required to toss up an uncatchable deep ball and cross your fingers that a PI flag will be thrown. But that's exactly what he did and I watched it pay off many times for him.

Anyway, regarding the thread topic- if I believed we had something in Love I'd be more inclined to say let AR walk. But based on what I've seen I'm not confident that Love can be an average QB even by today's standards. So yeah, I really hope we find a way to keep Aaron around.

You don't think that Love can do what Wilson did? He has the arm, he is reasonably mobile. And next year he will likely have a Oline that is not a patchwork of injury replacements, a rookie and second year man that barely played as a rookie. The only reason Rodgers does not get the PI calls is that he overthrows MVS so much that the pass is uncatchable.

As for points others have made, Eli Manning was never more than average. Big Ben was certainly not even average in his rookie year.