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Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 13:34
by go pak go
BSA wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 13:18
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 13:10
2024 - 2026 we will see the cap window start opening up for us again.
Agreed
And that coincides with a huge leap in the TV money hitting the salary cap and growing the annual totals from $224M this year to over $308M in 2026 per the projections at OTC. My guess is the league will blow right through those projections and the actual numbers will be even higher with an added boost from gambling.
https://overthecap.com/salary-cap-space
The whole "TV Deals" thing only matters for contracts signed right now.
Relying on future TV cap space doesn't much since the other 31 teams also have cap opened and it simply means each contract will get more expensive. No real net benefit to the team being able to sign more or higher quality players.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 13:40
by go pak go
Yoop wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 13:25
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 13:10
The biggest thing about cap is the ability to defer cap to future years.
We can still sign Love to a large deal but open a 3 year window of low cap hit. It's how the Chiefs operated with Mahommes.
The issue with GB in 2021 and 2022 is that we were at the end of the cap deferral window and didn't have many options to defer future cap left. In addition, we were eating dead cap in 22 and 23 on cash spent on contracts in 2019 - 2022.
2024 - 2026 we will see the cap window start opening up for us again.
fine, but we still could have traded draft picks for players at needed positions like WR, we pushed cap dollars to win in the Rodgers window, and skimped at the position that scores points, say what you want but that never made a lic of sense to me.
Why haven't you mentioned this before?
This is the first I've heard of this!
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 14:12
by BSA
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 13:34
No real net benefit to the team being able to sign more or higher quality players.
big picture - you are correct - the rising tide lifts all boats
However - If you look at the youth of the Packers roster- GB doesn't have a lengthy list of vets that need re-signing ( yet)
So the added cap growth + super young team does create a net benefit to the 2024 - 2026 Packers vs other squads who have a bevy of vets to pay GB has drafted 33 players (!) over the last 3 drafts - so they are a bit of an anomaly vs other teams and that difference
may convey an advantage going forward into the new money era.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 14:23
by Pckfn23
BSA wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 12:44
APB wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 09:51
Unfortunately, all the cap space they’d realize with QB1 on his rookie deal evaporated the moment they traded former QB1 and took on all his dead cap hit.
Yeah - I wouldn't worry about the " rookie QB contract" stuff too much.
You can take a stroll through the lists below to see all of the QBs drafted over the last decade+ and there's only 1 SB Champion with a QB on a rookie deal. KC/Mahomes in 2020- a transcendent HOF-worthy QB coached by a HOF-worthy offensive guru.
Unfortunately, the
rookie QB deal is just an oft-repeated meme with little basis in reality. 1 out of 25 QBs drafted won a Title while on a rookie deal doesn't seem like the path to success some imagine it to be. As Andrew Brandt astutely noted, it doesn't matter how much you pay a QB - what matters is that he performs commensurate with the deal he signed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_S ... _champions
https://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/qb
It's an interesting phenomenon based around cheaper talent and to an extent there is some truth to it:
2022 - Hurts lost it
2021 - Borrow lost it
2020 - Mahomes lost it
2019 - Mahomes won it
2018 - Goff lost it
2015 - Newton lost it
2014 - Wilson lost it
2013 - Wilson won it
2012 - Flacco won it, Kaepernick lost it
2007 - Manning won it
2006 - Grossman lost it
2005 - Roethlisberger won it
2001 - Brady won it
If we include Super Bowl participants then it gets a little more interesting. From 2001 to 2011, 4 QBs on rookie deals made it to the Super Bowl. 2012 to 2022 that number is 10. While the winning is similar for those 2 periods, the getting there is much higher. Now, that said Mahomes blew the 13.4% rule out of the water, so that kind of flies in the face of it.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 14:25
by Yoop
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 13:40
Yoop wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 13:25
go pak go wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 13:10
The biggest thing about cap is the ability to defer cap to future years.
We can still sign Love to a large deal but open a 3 year window of low cap hit. It's how the Chiefs operated with Mahommes.
The issue with GB in 2021 and 2022 is that we were at the end of the cap deferral window and didn't have many options to defer future cap left. In addition, we were eating dead cap in 22 and 23 on cash spent on contracts in 2019 - 2022.
2024 - 2026 we will see the cap window start opening up for us again.
fine, but we still could have traded draft picks for players at needed positions like WR, we pushed cap dollars to win in the Rodgers window, and skimped at the position that scores points, say what you want but that never made a lic of sense to me.
Why haven't you mentioned this before?
This is the first I've heard of this!
I couldn't or didn't bother, simply agreed when others here said it, seriously does it matter how we got better talent then the jags we had, the point is we did neither.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 14:45
by Drj820
The window is actually about 5 years, most often.
The window is closed during a new QBs rookie year, then opens up their 2nd year…and really stays open until about year 6.
Because even if they get paid, most of the cap hit from that big deal does not bite until about year 3 of that deal.
I would say hurts, Alan, lamar, burrow, and Herbert are all in this phase and will remain there for a couple more years.
Dak is in the cap phase where it is biting and going to keep biting.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 14:47
by BSA
Pckfn23 wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 14:23
If we include Super Bowl participants
Thanks for the leg work on this one, greatly appreciated.
So my new take-home message on the topic is that if you want to win a participation trophy, then QBs on a rookie contract are a decent bet.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 15:12
by Pckfn23
QBs and year in their career they won it:
Mahomes - Year 7
Stafford - Year 13
Brady - Year 22
Mahomes - Year 4
Brady - Year 20
Foles - Year 6
Brady - Year 18
Manning - Year 18
Brady - Year 16
Wilson - Year 2
Flacco - Year 5
Manning - Year 8
Rodgers - Year 6
Brees - Year 9
Roethlisberger - Year 5
Manning - Year 4
Manning - Year 9
Roethlisberger - Year 2
Brady - Year 5
Brady - Year 4
Johnson - Year 9
Brady - Year 2
Dilfer - Year 7
23 years this century, 12 are outside of this 6 year window. 11 are within this 6 year window.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 15:48
by Yoop
wrong, again.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 16:05
by Half Empty
2005 - 1st year
2006 - 2nd year
2007 - 3rd year
2008 - 4th year
2009 - 5th year
2010 - 6th year, SB
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 17:08
by Pckfn23
Yoop wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 15:48
Rodgers won his SB in his 5th season, just saying.
You can say it, but you are 100% wrong.
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 - won Super Bowl
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 17 Oct 2023 20:36
by Pckfn23
Really interesting thread, click the tweet and read through, not the article:
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 18 Oct 2023 05:19
by CWIMM
APB wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 09:51
The Packers currently have exactly that.
Unfortunately, all the cap space they’d realize with QB1 on his rookie deal evaporated the moment they traded former QB1 and took on all his dead cap hit.
First of all, Love isn't even playing on his rookie deal anymore. And in addition the Packers currently can't take advantage of him not accounting for a huge amount of cap hit as they spent the most cap space in the league on the QB position when you include Rodgers' dead money.
That's not a smart way to handle the cap.
BSA wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 12:44
As Andrew Brandt astutely noted, it doesn't matter how much you pay a QB - what matters is that he performs commensurate with the deal he signed.
I respect Brandt a lot but that is a strange thing to say. If you have two quarterbacks performing at the same level it makes a huge difference if one of them has a cap hit of $4.4 million like Love or $37.1 million like Mahomes this season.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 18 Oct 2023 08:05
by APB
CWIMM wrote: ↑18 Oct 2023 05:19
APB wrote: ↑17 Oct 2023 09:51
The Packers currently have exactly that.
Unfortunately, all the cap space they’d realize with QB1 on his rookie deal evaporated the moment they traded former QB1 and took on all his dead cap hit.
First of all, Love isn't even playing on his rookie deal anymore. And in addition the Packers currently can't take advantage of him not accounting for a huge amount of cap hit as they spent the most cap space in the league on the QB position when you include Rodgers' dead money.
That's not a smart way to handle the cap.
Love is currently playing the 4th year of his rookie contract. To my knowledge, those numbers remain unchanged.
Yes, the Packers signed him to a 1 yr extension in lieu of the 5th year rookie contract option which runs through
next year. The unorthodox 1 yr extension was done more for protecting the organization from excess guaranteed money in his 5th year but the actual numbers, if Love earns all incentives, are not significantly different from what they would have been had they simply exercised the 5th year option.
It's contractual semantics, in essence.
Your second point is repeating the very point I already made. I guess...we agree?
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 18 Oct 2023 13:56
by BSA
APB wrote: ↑18 Oct 2023 08:05
It's contractual semantics, in essence.
Indeed
The Packers maxed out the cap trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP- that was a worthy effort. MVPs are very well paid, there's just no way around that. As a result - GB now has in excess of $60M in dead cap from all the cash they previously pushed into the future.
Once that clears in 2024, GB is in a great spot and has a wealth of inexpensive youth to develop and cap flexibility going forward
Take a look at the post-Brees Saints who are still looking at $30M in dead money even through Brees retired in 2021. Look at the he post- Manning Broncos who totally suck, the post-Brady Pats or the post- Brady Bucs who are staring at a whopping $77M in Dead money...really any team moving on from an elite QB. Its not easy. GB is handling that very difficult $$ transition as well as any team.
Jordan Love is under contract for 2023 & 2024 at very cheap rates, coming in a # 20 in the QB payouts which is exactly where the rookie QBs are slotted.
https://overthecap.com/contracts
So the Packers will have cleared the massive dead cap from MVP Rodgers and still have another season of low-cost Love. More importantly, OTC slots Jordan Love's
performance value at $25M/yr, while GB is absorbing only a $4.4 M cap hit in 2023 and a measly $7.7M cap hit in 2024.
So GB not only survived the transition from Rodgers, they also have a talented starting QB on a cheap deal.
https://overthecap.com/player/jordan-love/8766
.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 18 Oct 2023 14:42
by Yoop
BSA wrote: ↑18 Oct 2023 13:56
APB wrote: ↑18 Oct 2023 08:05
It's contractual semantics, in essence.
Indeed
The Packers maxed out the cap trying to win a Title with the reigning MVP- that was a worthy effort. MVPs are very well paid, there's just no way around that. As a result - GB now has in excess of $60M in dead cap from all the cash they previously pushed into the future.
Once that clears in 2024, GB is in a great spot and has a wealth of inexpensive youth to develop and cap flexibility going forward
Take a look at the post-Brees Saints who are still looking at $30M in dead money even through Brees retired in 2021. Look at the he post- Manning Broncos who totally suck, the post-Brady Pats or the post- Brady Bucs who are staring at a whopping $77M in Dead money...really any team moving on from an elite QB. Its not easy. GB is handling that very difficult $$ transition as well as any team.
Jordan Love is under contract for 2023 & 2024 at very cheap rates, coming in a # 20 in the QB payouts which is exactly where the rookie QBs are slotted.
https://overthecap.com/contracts
So the Packers will have cleared the massive dead cap from MVP Rodgers and still have another season of low-cost Love. More importantly, OTC slots Jordan Love's
performance value at $25M/yr, while GB is absorbing only a $4.4 M cap hit in 2023 and a measly $7.7M cap hit in 2024.
So GB not only survived the transition from Rodgers, they also have a talented starting QB on a cheap deal.
https://overthecap.com/player/jordan-love/8766
.
right on, I never understood all the hand wringing over this, no one was complaining very much when Rodgers got the contract, other then the few who thought he sucked since like forever around here.
If Love pans out he'll make more then Rodgers ever got on his second deal.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 18 Oct 2023 14:48
by bud fox
Packers will not win a Sb with Love and Love will not get another contract in GB.
Love has not looked good, his numbers are not good, we have the easiest schedule and worst division in the league.
This roster is not getting better over the next 12 months.
Sorry but as Bahk would say its rebuild time.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 18 Oct 2023 21:45
by APB
bud fox wrote: ↑18 Oct 2023 14:48
Packers will not win a Sb with Love and Love will not get another contract in GB.
Love has not looked good, his numbers are not good, we have the easiest schedule and worst division in the league.
This roster is not getting better over the next 12 months.
Sorry but as Bahk would say its rebuild time.
Let's temper the enthusiasm, sunshine...
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 18 Oct 2023 22:47
by BF004
Yeah, we got $63 million in cap not playing between Aaron and Bak.
We’ve been playing without Bak, Jenkins, Watson and Jones, literally all our best players.
It hasn’t looked good lately, but no one thought it would.
Some combo of Gute, Lafleur and Love got about 15 months to figure it all out. But this year was never about this year.
Re: Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison
Posted: 18 Oct 2023 23:15
by bud fox
BF004 wrote: ↑18 Oct 2023 22:47
Yeah, we got $63 million in cap not playing between Aaron and Bak.
We’ve been playing without Bak, Jenkins, Watson and Jones, literally all our best players.
It hasn’t looked good lately, but no one thought it would.
Some combo of Gute, Lafleur and Love got about 15 months to figure it all out. But this year was never about this year.
Bak won't be back. Jenkins has not looked great. Watson seems to have the MVS role.
Jones is the difference but how will he look as a year older Rb next year.