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Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 11:36
by Yoop
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑31 May 2021 09:37
I should explain my vote for MVS
I value the ROLE of the deep threat WR. I think that role makes an offense much better.
MVS is our deep threat WR. There is virtually no competition for that role on the roster. He is a lock to be our deep threat.
MVS is one of the better players in the league at that one trick. It’s all he’s got and even then, he blows his fair share of them. But he was tops in the league in yards per catch and top 5 in 40+ yard catches. That’s one rate stat and one volume stat that say he’s a top deep threat in the league.
If MVS does not improve his catching and his tracking and add some other tricks to his toolbox, I would like to find a new deep threat to challenge him on our roster. I understand the frustration with him as a player and the comments about whether or not he’s even our third best WR, let alone our second.
But he is DEFINITELY our best deep threat. And he’s definitely one of the league’s better deep threats. And our offense is definitely better with a good deep threat on the field.
So that’s the vote. There’s really no equivocation and I don’t even have to base it on projection, because MVS still could get much better. But he also might not. He may never. But it doesn’t matter.
This is the same logic by which I wanted to trade for Randy Moss even if the player we saw on the Raiders was all we’d get from him. Even if old Randy was never coming back. His deep threat acumen was enough to make the deal. Turned out old Randy was still in there and he was a dynamo in NE.
But you don’t need a dynamo. You need to throw a deep ball every possession or two to make the defense honor it AND to burn the defense occasionally on them. That’s what MVS does for us. The role is more important than some here give it credit for. If you have Adams, Lazard, and Rodgers on the field, the safeties can crowd the box. Adams can draw all the extra attention. The short game will be filled with traffic
agreed, my problem is though that MVS drops 50% of those long throws, his best production with them was the NFCCG, what 4 of 6 for a buck 20?? something like that, hopefully he keeps that up because the drops end drives, sure he draws safety coverage over the top, but he's has to catch the ball because every time we throw to him means where not taking the short shot that could result in a 1st dn., love the speed, but it has to produce.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 12:16
by TheSkeptic
Yoop wrote: ↑31 May 2021 11:36
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑31 May 2021 09:37
I should explain my vote for MVS
I value the ROLE of the deep threat WR. I think that role makes an offense much better.
MVS is our deep threat WR. There is virtually no competition for that role on the roster. He is a lock to be our deep threat.
MVS is one of the better players in the league at that one trick. It’s all he’s got and even then, he blows his fair share of them. But he was tops in the league in yards per catch and top 5 in 40+ yard catches. That’s one rate stat and one volume stat that say he’s a top deep threat in the league.
If MVS does not improve his catching and his tracking and add some other tricks to his toolbox, I would like to find a new deep threat to challenge him on our roster. I understand the frustration with him as a player and the comments about whether or not he’s even our third best WR, let alone our second.
But he is DEFINITELY our best deep threat. And he’s definitely one of the league’s better deep threats. And our offense is definitely better with a good deep threat on the field.
So that’s the vote. There’s really no equivocation and I don’t even have to base it on projection, because MVS still could get much better. But he also might not. He may never. But it doesn’t matter.
This is the same logic by which I wanted to trade for Randy Moss even if the player we saw on the Raiders was all we’d get from him. Even if old Randy was never coming back. His deep threat acumen was enough to make the deal. Turned out old Randy was still in there and he was a dynamo in NE.
But you don’t need a dynamo. You need to throw a deep ball every possession or two to make the defense honor it AND to burn the defense occasionally on them. That’s what MVS does for us. The role is more important than some here give it credit for. If you have Adams, Lazard, and Rodgers on the field, the safeties can crowd the box. Adams can draw all the extra attention. The short game will be filled with traffic
agreed, my problem is though that MVS drops 50% of those long throws, his best production with them was the NFCCG, what 4 of 6 for a buck 20?? something like that, hopefully he keeps that up because the drops end drives, sure he draws safety coverage over the top, but he's has to catch the ball because every time we throw to him means where not taking the short shot that could result in a 1st dn., love the speed, but it has to produce.
Good points, especially if Rodgers is QB. But if he isn't and Love is, I think the Packers shift to a run first offense with screens and play action and outlet passes to RB's and TE's. It may be that Love is told to throw it to the designated receiver for the play but if he is covered to immediately dump it off. Love won't even be looking for MVS who might be open 30 yards down the field whereas Rodgers will be. So Love will complete the 4 yard pass and the Packers will have a first down and 3 more chances to run the ball for another 1st down.
I guess we will know in a few days who the starting QB will be and that has a huge impact on whether Dillon or MVS is more valuable. Fyi, it won't be Bortles.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 12:24
by YoHoChecko
This is an absurd take, though. If Love is the QB, we’re not going to suddenly not need a deep threat. If we want to run the ball more and better and if we want to open up the underneath game then we’ll need a deep threat even more urgently.
That’s not to say that a Love-led offense won’t focus more on ball control and the running game, but having deep speed on the field matters just as much for that as for anything else; maybe more, really.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 12:41
by Yoop
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑31 May 2021 12:24
This is an absurd take, though. If Love is the QB, we’re not going to suddenly not need a deep threat. If we want to run the ball more and better and if we want to open up the underneath game then we’ll need a deep threat even more urgently.
That’s not to say that a Love-led offense won’t focus more on ball control and the running game, but having deep speed on the field matters just as much for that as for anything else; maybe more, really.
well having a run first offense means everything else has to be very good, that means a top 5 defense, same with ST's, and you have to rely on zero offensive penalty's and gaining good enough down and distance to consistently march down the field and score points, sorta a rare thing actually, just because a team here and there over time succeeds doing it doesn't mean it's the preferred way to win, if so everyone would do it, nope, imo it's harder.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 13:21
by salmar80
Yoop wrote: ↑31 May 2021 12:41
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑31 May 2021 12:24
This is an absurd take, though. If Love is the QB, we’re not going to suddenly not need a deep threat. If we want to run the ball more and better and if we want to open up the underneath game then we’ll need a deep threat even more urgently.
That’s not to say that a Love-led offense won’t focus more on ball control and the running game, but having deep speed on the field matters just as much for that as for anything else; maybe more, really.
well having a run first offense means everything else has to be very good, that means a top 5 defense, same with ST's, and you have to rely on zero offensive penalty's and gaining good enough down and distance to consistently march down the field and score points, sorta a rare thing actually, just because a team here and there over time succeeds doing it doesn't mean it's the preferred way to win, if so everyone would do it, nope, imo it's harder.
Yes, it would be hard. But the point is that a deep threat WR like MVS would be useful even in an offense that focuses on the running game and shorter passes. You need a deep threat if don't wanna have that running/short passing game face an 8-man box all game long.
There would be no need for MVS if we had a terribly noodle-armed QB, but neither of our options is that.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 13:35
by Packfntk
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 13:39
by go pak go
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:35
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
I mean who else should be considered then?
Honestly everyone else is essentially projection. This is absolutely MVS range.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 14:06
by Yoop
go pak go wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:39
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:35
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
I mean who else should be considered then?
Honestly everyone else is essentially projection. This is absolutely MVS range.
I'am getting ready to slot MVS soon but went with Dillon because he'll get more touches, sure he'll benefit from MVS's deep speed, but he probably benefits with better blocking more
lots of players are close here, Barnes, King, I actually think Amari Rodgers will be our #2 receiver this year, so even though MVS is our only deep threat, I think Rodgers may produce more to team value then MVS, then we have Meyers who sounds like a plug and play rookie, and I doubt Stokes will ride pine long, this tier has a lot of talent, so I think the players grade pretty closely.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 14:10
by go pak go
Yoop wrote: ↑31 May 2021 14:06
go pak go wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:39
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:35
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
I mean who else should be considered then?
Honestly everyone else is essentially projection. This is absolutely MVS range.
I'am getting ready to slot MVS soon but went with Dillon because he'll get more touches, sure he'll benefit from MVS's deep speed, but he probably benefits with better blocking more
Yeah I think Dillon is a good candiate here as well. Definitely a project pick but one I agree is a good projection pick. I am very, very bullish on AJ Dillon.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 14:21
by YoHoChecko
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:35
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
I would like to point out that 6 TDs is an admirable number of TDs for a role player.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 14:54
by Packfntk
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑31 May 2021 14:21
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:35
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
I would like to point out that 6 TDs is an admirable number of TDs for a role player.
Would be, but he actually had more drops than TD’s.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 17:45
by Labrev
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:35
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
This overlooks how his speed opens things up for other players to make plays, (so in a sense, he has a hand in more receptions/scores than the ones on his stat sheet); I think that was the point his voters were trying to make.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 18:05
by Packfntk
Labrev wrote: ↑31 May 2021 17:45
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:35
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
This overlooks how his speed opens things up for other players to make plays, (so in a sense, he has a hand in more receptions/scores than the ones on his stat sheet); I think that was the point his voters were trying to make.
Wow, so any burner in the NFL should be ranked really high. Speed is everything. Not a fan of this argument at all.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 18:44
by BSA
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 18:05
Wow, so any burner in the NFL should be ranked really high. Speed is everything. Not a fan of this argument at all.
I don't think anybody is saying speed is everything, or that any burner will do. MVS is more than just speed. There are many ways to evaluate a players worth - but because I'm not all that bright - I lean on the people who do know.
In this case - the respect MVS earns from opposing DCs is what matters. And they do have to account for him and they do adjust their game planning- because he is both fast
and skilled. The drops are frustrating - but they haven't changed the respect he gets from defensive backfields.
Waldo has been making an excellent case for Barnes, but opponents don't adjust or account for an ILB the way they do a deep threat WR.
Speed isn't everything - but when matched with skills; speed kills.
An DC's know it.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 19:27
by Labrev
Jeff Janis and Trevor Davis are proof that not just any receiver who can run fast is a "deep threat" ... just to use the example of two recent and familiar players in a long line of past receivers who had great speed but never amounted to anything.
Brett Kollman did a nice video on how there is an "art" to the deep ball both on the part of the QB and WR, using Russell Wilson and Tyler Lockett as the example. Bottom line, being a deep ball specialist is not a joke. There is a real skill involved.
And yes, when you know how to use it, speed is an incredibly valuable asset (and not just at WR). This is the NFL. Guys with special traits win you games. It can be a star player like Tyreek Hill or a key role player like Scottie Miller.
And when you DON'T have those guys, you don't underestimate their value, like when we lost Jordy to an ACL tear and then TyMont in the last game of our 5-0 winning streak -- worst offense of the Rodgers era, hands down. That WR corps. could not run (except for Janis, but... he had other problems).
As for how high they should be ranked... that's completely relative. On a worse roster, MVS is WR1 and in the Top 10. Our roster is top shelf and I would rank him closer to 18 or 19. 15 is not an egregious overrating IMHO. Where to rank Love is another whole can 'o worms.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 19:37
by TheSkeptic
There is another problem with a deep threat offense.
Hypothetically, the other team just marched down the field, 70 yards in 10+ plays and scored a TD. Your D is gassed and demoralized. It is the beginning of the 4th quarter and the other team is now leading by 7 points.
Now you get the ball and on the first play MVS scores a 75 yard TD. The score is tied, and this would appear to be a good thing but in reality it is horrible. Your D now has to march back on the field and stands little chance of stopping the opposing O. Meanwhile, except for the DB that MVS beat, their D is fresh. This is how to lose a game in the last 5 minutes.
Yoop is 100% correct. Having a burner to keep the opposing D honest is a plus. But having a good run blocking Oline and a 240 pound RB that can outrun almost every LB in the league is much much better. You don't need to keep them honest if you can run over them.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 19:56
by Packfntk
BSA wrote: ↑31 May 2021 18:44
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 18:05
Wow, so any burner in the NFL should be ranked really high. Speed is everything. Not a fan of this argument at all.
I don't think anybody is saying speed is everything, or that any burner will do. MVS is more than just speed. There are many ways to evaluate a players worth - but because I'm not all that bright - I lean on the people who do know.
In this case - the respect MVS earns from opposing DCs is what matters. And they do have to account for him and they do adjust their game planning- because he is both fast
and skilled. The drops are frustrating - but they haven't changed the respect he gets from defensive backfields.
Waldo has been making an excellent case for Barnes, but opponents don't adjust or account for an ILB the way they do a deep threat WR.
Speed isn't everything - but when matched with skills; speed kills.
An DC's know it.
Guess I just did not remember ever hearing a DC say how he changed his gameplan for MVS. Regardless, I love MVS, but just feel this is insanely high for a one trick pony.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 31 May 2021 21:50
by BF004
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 18:05
Labrev wrote: ↑31 May 2021 17:45
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 13:35
MVS caught 33 balls and 6 TD’s playing with the MVP of the league. He isn’t in consideration at all for me here.
This overlooks how his speed opens things up for other players to make plays, (so in a sense, he has a hand in more receptions/scores than the ones on his stat sheet); I think that was the point his voters were trying to make.
Wow, so any burner in the NFL should be ranked really high. Speed is everything. Not a fan of this argument at all.
Silly town, of course any burner isn’t a deep threat, that’s obvious, no one is saying anything so ridiculous. Like any good WR, routes are set up throughout a game and throughout weeks. MVS has this mastered. He is one of a handful who can consistently win deep. 100% changes how a defense plays you.
His ilk are very few who can do that. Not 32 in the league.
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 01 Jun 2021 05:19
by YoHoChecko
Literally caught as many deep balls as any WR in the league last year
6 catches of 40+, tied with DJ Moore and DeAndre Hopkins.
One ahead of Tyreek Hill, DK Metcalf, and Stefon Diggs
This isn’t about his 40 time. It’s about his deep ball production
Re: Rank the Roster 2021: #15
Posted: 01 Jun 2021 06:45
by NCF
BF004 wrote: ↑31 May 2021 21:50
Packfntk wrote: ↑31 May 2021 18:05
Labrev wrote: ↑31 May 2021 17:45
This overlooks how his speed opens things up for other players to make plays, (so in a sense, he has a hand in more receptions/scores than the ones on his stat sheet); I think that was the point his voters were trying to make.
Wow, so any burner in the NFL should be ranked really high. Speed is everything. Not a fan of this argument at all.
Silly town, of course any burner isn’t a deep threat, that’s obvious, no one is saying anything so ridiculous. Like any good WR, routes are set up throughout a game and throughout weeks. MVS has this mastered. He is one of a handful who can consistently win deep. 100% changes how a defense plays you.
His ilk are very few who can do that. Not 32 in the league.
If it were simple, we'd all still be talking about Jeff Janis.