Screw all you guys who don’t think we can win. Asinine.
Will we win? I’d imagine <50% odds, but $%@# if we can’t win.
I don't think anyone has said we can't. Me and go pack go seem pessimistic but both have gone out of the way to say we may win anyway, but the expectations, given the health, are low. Who is saying we can't?
well this comment from GPG is about as close to saying we can't win as it gets
We should lose and likely will lose
words like that suck the breath right out of the faithful fans like me
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Screw all you guys who don’t think we can win. Asinine.
Will we win? I’d imagine <50% odds, but $%@# if we can’t win.
I'm with you on this! Losers mentality in here! Is it going to be hard? Yeah, of course it is. But in Vegas shows this thing as almost even. Cardinals are a 3.5 point favorite.
Cardinals for sure have good wins, but they've also beaten up on teams like the 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans. Despite being home, they are coming off an even shorter week (by a few hours).
You want to be the best, you have to beat the best. I have no reason to believe the Packers will lay another egg like week 1.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Screw all you guys who don’t think we can win. Asinine.
Will we win? I’d imagine <50% odds, but $%@# if we can’t win.
I don't think anyone has said we can't. Me and go pack go seem pessimistic but both have gone out of the way to say we may win anyway, but the expectations, given the health, are low. Who is saying we can't?
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Screw all you guys who don’t think we can win. Asinine.
Will we win? I’d imagine <50% odds, but $%@# if we can’t win.
I don't think anyone has said we can't. Me and go pack go seem pessimistic but both have gone out of the way to say we may win anyway, but the expectations, given the health, are low. Who is saying we can't?
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Posted: 25 Oct 2021 10:04
by go pak go
Can I just say how much I love that this forum brings out nerd terms like:
1. R
2. standard deviation
3. Regression back to the mean
4. Writeoffs
5. etc. etc.
You are my people.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Screw all you guys who don’t think we can win. Asinine.
Will we win? I’d imagine <50% odds, but $%@# if we can’t win.
I thought you were a stats guy?
Don't think we can win is very different than not thinking we will win.
Absolutely have a chance. I'd say 20% to 30% chance.
Feel like this is a lot of disagreement language when at the heart of the matter we are in agreement.
Im in disagreement because i think our chances are much higher that 25% (average of your two options)
Myself and Las Vegas see this is basically a toss up
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Posted: 25 Oct 2021 10:25
by paco
Taking a quick look at depth charts, here's where I would give the edge.
QB - Even - This is really close. Kyler playing great, but Rodgers starting to as well. Kyler's legs and the damage they can do put this even for me.
RB - Packers
OL - Packers - Even with Bakh and Myers out, I give us a slight edge.
TE - Even - Too close to call.
WR - Cardinals, only because their depth is better. Hopkins and Adams equal each other out.
IDL - Packers
ILB - Cardinals - I give them the edge in the depth department
Pass rushers - Even - Sack and pressure numbers are very close. Maybe a slight edge to them, but we are getting better each week.
CB - Even - Assuming Jaire is out, I'll call this even. They don't have a premier CB either.
S - Even - They have some good safeties, but so do we.
ST - Even. Bojo is a weapon, but they are solid too.
Overall, this will come down to who makes mistakes and who isn't able to get in the endzone. The teams are remarkably even in a lot of statistical categories. The Cardinals have probably been more efficient and we still have that week 1 game hanging over our heads. But looking at them head to head, we shouldn't be scared.
Limit Kyler being able to run and extend plays. Don't let Hopkins kill you. Run it up the gut, they are weaker there. Dillon should be a big part of the gameplan.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Posted: 25 Oct 2021 10:28
by go pak go
I feel like we didn't run the ball vs Washington partially because of their front 7 and also because it is a way to keep our backs fresh for Thursday.
I like that.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Myself and Las Vegas see this is basically a toss up
But they don't.
I understand that Vegas gives some extra points to the home team--I'd imagine that 3-point standard rule has diminished because Vegas responds to reality and home field clearly has lower worth now than in the past. So maybe they're saying it's 2.5 points for home field and 1 point for them being better.
But that's if you're using point spreads to evaluate the quality of the teams. But I'm not. We DO play on the road. In real life, this game is a Thursday night road game. The 3.5 point spread does not indicate a toss-up. A 3.5 point spread indicates an expected win percentage for the favorite of around 60-70%. So Vegas is a lot closer to saying a 30% chance of a win than it is to saying it's a toss-up.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Myself and Las Vegas see this is basically a toss up
But they don't.
I understand that Vegas gives some extra points to the home team--I'd imagine that 3-point standard rule has diminished because Vegas responds to reality and home field clearly has lower worth now than in the past. So maybe they're saying it's 2.5 points for home field and 1 point for them being better.
But that's if you're using point spreads to evaluate the quality of the teams. But I'm not. We DO play on the road. In real life, this game is a Thursday night road game. The 3.5 point spread does not indicate a toss-up. A 3.5 point spread indicates an expected win percentage for the favorite of around 60-70%. So Vegas is a lot closer to saying a 30% chance of a win than it is to saying it's a toss-up.
So does that mean that the Lions being 16 point dogs had a negative eleventy percent chance of winning?
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Damarious Randall should have to do the post game laundry by hand.
If we win that game Janis is set for the rest of his life. Radio shows, commercials, statues, etc... instead Randall royally $%@# up and people forget the heroics Janis put on display. The chances of catching 2 Hail Marys in one drive over Patrick Peterson in his prime is so low.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Just seems like one more thing for the Cardinals to look at and say, "We got these guys." I still think we are going to fly out there and just kick them in the junk from the opening kick-off.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Posted: 25 Oct 2021 13:54
by Captain_Ben
As someone who has been out of the loop (relatively) on non-Packer NFL news these past couple seasons, how in the hell have the Arizona Cardinals become the best team in the conference?
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
As someone who has been out of the loop (relatively) on non-Packer NFL news these past couple seasons, how in the hell have the Arizona Cardinals become the best team in the conference?
Developed a young QB and put the pieces around him to be successful. Good free agent pickups. Good scheme. Good drafting.
But mostly, its fleecing the Texans to get Hopkins. The Texans help everyone but the Texans win.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Just seems like one more thing for the Cardinals to look at and say, "We got these guys." I still think we are going to fly out there and just kick them in the junk from the opening kick-off.
Well hopefully there is no contact on opening kickoff and we kick a $%@# touchback.
Re: Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals - Thursday 7:20 PM CST
Just seems like one more thing for the Cardinals to look at and say, "We got these guys." I still think we are going to fly out there and just kick them in the junk from the opening kick-off.
The only MLF Lambeau Field loss in the regular season was like that.
We had every advantage over Philly that night in 2019 and yet couldn't come away with the victory.
