I'll put forth some sort of hypothetical for what I think, basically, happened here.
Let's say the Packers draft board looked something like this
Tier One
Chase Young
Joe Burrow
Tua
Tier Two
Derrick Brown
Javon Kinlaw
Jerry Jeudy
CeeDee Lamb
Henry Ruggs
Isaiah Simmons
Jeff Okudah
Andrew Thomas
Tristan Wirfs
Tier Three
Mekhi Becton
Justin Herbert
Jordan Love
CJ Henderson
Jedrick Wills
Tier Four
K'Lavon Chaisson
Antonio Jackson
Kenneth Murray
Justin Jefferson
Jalen Reagor
Brandon Ayiuk
Patrick Queen
Tier Five - Second Round Grades
AJ Terrell
Cesar Ruiz
Jordan Brooks
Isaiah Wilson
Noah Igbinoghene
Jeff Gladney
Michael Pittman, Jr
Kyle Duggar
etc. etc.
I think there's a good chance that the Packers were ready to take a needed position--WR--even though there was a player from a whole tier up (QB, Jordan Love). But when the WRs in that tier came off the board, the Packers were sitting at 30 with only TWO players left with first round grades. Queen, Tier 4; and Love, Tier 3. They moved up because they didn't think either guy would last until 30 and the trade-back options weren't looking good.
So rather than picking a player with a Round Two grade in the first round, they traded up. At that point, they had their pick of two players--one who fit a need, and one who doesn't fit an immediate need but is a top-15 player on their board at the most important position on the field. A guy who is a full tier ahead of Queen. And they trusted the board and went with Love.
I genuinely believe that something like this is what happened. The board fell very poorly for us. I, personally, would maybe have still taken Queen in that position--a first round grade, a need position, 2nd-best player left on the board. But this is how I see tjhings, generally and hypothetically
A fun exercise to think about. But i'm not sure we have any evidence they considered Queen. Every year Packer fans get excited for an ILB and every year they leave it to the mid rounds.
If they had two guys they were happy with then I reckon they would have waited until one of them went and then made the trade up. We know the Seahawks had a deal with them for the pick after but Gute hung up on Schneider and went with Miami. If you had 2 guys you'd have been happy with, and one was a 'need' like Queen, you'd have thought they would have waited or traded with Seattle.
Judging by previous Packer drafts and the fact Queen was widely mocked in the late first, I could easily envision they viewed Queen as a second round value.
Seems clear to me they really wanted Love. If they didn't they could have waited for him. The fact they went up to get him is pretty clear evidence of that. And one of the only concrete data points we have. That, plus the smile on LaFleur's face when the pick was made
Re: Round 1 (26) - Jordan Love, QB Utah State
Posted: 07 May 2020 10:57
by YoHoChecko
We don't have any evidence they considered Queen, but why on earth would we expect evidence?
Like I said, that's my theory. It's an estimation. I truly believe that they had Love around top 15 and that they were almost out of 1st round grades by the time they picked. I personally would find it difficult to believe that Queen didn't have a first round grade.
Seems clear to me they really wanted Love. If they didn't they could have waited for him. The fact they went up to get him is pretty clear evidence of that. And one of the only concrete data points we have. That, plus the smile on LaFleur's face when the pick was made
And like, that's fair and all. But I think you still move up if you have 2 guys left and you're 4 picks away. And yeah, they wanted Love because they had him ranked much higher than other people on their board. But I don't think we can have any evidence without years-later, inside information coming out, of what "the plan" was. I think they genuinely planned on taking a WR at 30 but the board didn't fall right. We have solid evidence that they tried to move up for a WR at least once, if not twice in the draft. Gutey has said there was an "early run" that changed the dynamic of their board.
I think Love was a kid they loved, but they didn't expect him to be there AND they did expect a need position--namely a WR that could start early in his career--to be there. The board fell in an almost worst-case scenario for us. I said as much as it was happening.
Seems clear to me they really wanted Love. If they didn't they could have waited for him. The fact they went up to get him is pretty clear evidence of that. And one of the only concrete data points we have. That, plus the smile on LaFleur's face when the pick was made
And like, that's fair and all. But I think you still move up if you have 2 guys left and you're 4 picks away. And yeah, they wanted Love because they had him ranked much higher than other people on their board. But I don't think we can have any evidence without years-later, inside information coming out, of what "the plan" was. I think they genuinely planned on taking a WR at 30 but the board didn't fall right. We have solid evidence that they tried to move up for a WR at least once, if not twice in the draft. Gutey has said there was an "early run" that changed the dynamic of their board.
I think Love was a kid they loved, but they didn't expect him to be there AND they did expect a need position--namely a WR that could start early in his career--to be there. The board fell in an almost worst-case scenario for us. I said as much as it was happening.
I just feel like a lot of that is conjecture (which I'm cool with, we're all just throwing ideas around here). I guess I think it's easy to convince ourselves the Packers liked guys we liked, when actually all we know for sure is the Packers really liked Love. Certainly more than 'need' position guys such as Queen and any of the other WRs that went off the board a few picks later, some of which were mocked to go in the first round like Higgins and Pittman.
Picking Queen, Higgins, Pittman etc would not have been viewed as a reach and would have matched perfectly with perceived team needs.
The fact they traded up, with all 3 on the board, for the ultimate non-need position, who will do nothing for them for the next 2 years, will cause media/locker room questions and fanbase fury makes it clear to me it wasn't a marginal decision.
I just feel like a lot of that is conjecture (which I'm cool with, we're all just throwing ideas around here). I guess I think it's easy to convince ourselves the Packers liked guys we liked, when actually all we know for sure is the Packers really liked Love. Certainly more than 'need' position guys such as Queen and any of the other WRs that went off the board a few picks later, some of which were mocked to go in the first round like Higgins and Pittman.
Picking Queen, Higgins, Pittman etc would not have been viewed as a reach and would have matched perfectly with perceived team needs.
The fact they traded up, with all 3 on the board, for the ultimate non-need position, who will do nothing for them for the next 2 years, will cause media/locker room questions and fanbase fury makes it clear to me it wasn't a marginal decision.
I mean, of COURSE it's conjecture. But there's also plenty of Gutey quotes and reports that the Packers tried to trade up for WRs later, and that the Packers thought the WRs were really strong at the top, and that the board fell in such a way that the WRs ceased to be good value.
Whether or not they liked Queen is totally conjecture. But whether or not they liked Pittman or Higgins isn't. They talked, at length, about the value not falling right at WR. They did not value Higgins and Pittman as first round picks, it's pretty clear. Notably, no other team picking from 27 through 32 seemed to either.
But the fact that the Packers and Ravens OFTEN like the same guys (even before we hired their personnel person) dating all the way back to the Nick Collins pick when the Ravens reportedly called TT and said "nice pick, we were going tot ake him with our next selection). It makes perfectly good sense to think that queen was on the Packers' board SOMEWHERE in that range.
It also is perfectly clear and now obvious that Love was ranked considerably higher. Gutey was asked if he considered Queen, and he said "we never comment on which other players we like, but we did what we did." That was his way of saying "We liked Love better." That's all we know.
I don't confuse myself into thinking that the Packers like who I like. I know they don't always (though seriously, I loved Deguara and Runyan and REALLY liked Dillon, sooo...)
But Gutey said, perfectly clearly, that the board didn't fall right for WR; that the trade-back options weren't great. That they had Love very high and the value was too good to pass up. Gutey talked specifically after day one and day two about the early run of WRs putting a dent in the value for that position on the board. We can't know if it was Ayiuk, Jefferson, or Reagor that he meant when he talked about the run in the early-mid twenties. But he said it, specifically, that after that run, it was pretty clear WR wouldn't be their pick. We do have evidence of that.
The only thing we don't have evidence for is who else would have been under consideration at that point in the draft. I crafted my hypothetical to create what I think happened--Love was not only ahead of the other remaining players, but in a different TIER. So the decision wasn't very difficult.
But to say that Love was "the plan all along" totally ignores the other comments about WRs and the comments about how the board fell and the comments about how good they thought the value was for Love.
Re: Round 1 (26) - Jordan Love, QB Utah State
Posted: 07 May 2020 11:53
by British
Yes, I guess i'm saying it looks like picking Love was something they considered pre-draft and that they must have really wanted him, to do what they did with 'need' positions still on the board. With all the reasons against picking Love, it makes me think they had him as one of their pre-draft targets. That's the difference between this and 2005 when the Packers, and almost everyone else, thought Rodgers would be long gone. Love was mocked to go around the Packers pick so I can imagine it was a scenario they seriously talked about rather than stumbling into on draft night like '05.
Does anyone have any insight into the dissonance between several scouts saying they had concerns about Love's personality or maturity not being QB-face-of-the-franchise kind of caliber... and the article 23 posted with his coaches and teammates talking up with work ethic and leadership?
I mean I know these sorts of things come out every year about dozens of people and there's often a degree of different opinions...
just wondering if anyone had better insights into some of those quotes?
From McGinn's series of scouts' takes...
AFC scout: “If he doesn’t go first round it’s because of character. He has the skill set to go first round. … It’s more stupid, immaturity &%$@.
NFC scout: “The body language was awful and the accuracy was worse. He didn’t look like he knew what he was doing or that he wanted to play. ... I don’t see the attitude.
NFC scout: “He’s a risk-reward guy. You question the makeup. He got arrested for weed. You don’t want the face of your franchise getting arrested for weed. … He’s soft-spoken and confident. Not great on the board. You know, good luck.”
AFC scout: “Don’t like him. Excellent athlete. Arm talent. Has never been coached and no supporting cast, but I worry about the intangibles. Ain’t my kind of guy.”
From the more recent article:
David Yost, then Utah State’s offensive coordinator wrote:“Most of the other guys were all seniors or juniors, and they’re all hanging out at night watching the game video from that day. And Jordan’s kind of leading the whole group as far as running the clicker and being loud in that way.
Kent Myers, starting QB who lost his job to Love wrote:When he came and started over me, just how we both did it, it was very professional. We were still friends. A lot of people that try to break us up are like, ‘Oh, Jordan, you’re the guy.’ He never saw it like that. Me and him never had those conversations, like ‘Oh, I’m starting over you and I’m younger.’ I think that shows a lot about him. … He did it with class and that’s why, to this day, we’re still good friends
Some Teammates wrote:Ron’quavion Tarver, Love’s No. 1 wide receiver on the 2018 team, recalls how Love and his mom treated him to dinner after a game and how, when Tarver needed a ride to a workout, Love provided one.
“If I was to say I had a best friend in Utah, it would be Jordan,” Tarver said. “And you could ask the other players, too. They would say the same thing. … I felt like I got drafted in the first round when Jordan got drafted.”
Said Utah State left tackle Alfred Edwards: “The thing about Jordan is he never put himself above any of us. He was just one of the guys, even with the NFL hype, really since 2018. He’s always been the same dude. … I feel like what makes the job easier is he’s a genuinely good guy. He’s a good teammate, too. You wanna block your butt off for him.”
Added former Utah State running back Gerold Bright: “He has a gravitational force that seems to attract everyone from white, black, purple, orange, different backgrounds. He can just attract anybody because of the way he carries himself. He’s always a guy that’s always smiling, his personality is full of energy, he’s a goofball, he’ll make you laugh, he’s approachable.”
I sorta feel like the character stuff is mostly older-school guys who are reacting to the (later dropped) weed charge? Is that too simplistic?
Been reading more stuff about how solid Love's character is and then saw this tweet which might explain McGinn's old timer scouts views. Maybe they subconsciously need more convincing with the idea of a black QB. They would hardly be the first.
Been reading more stuff about how solid Love's character is and then saw this tweet which might explain McGinn's old timer scouts views. Maybe they subconsciously need more convincing with the idea of a black QB. They would hardly be the first.
This was DEFINITELY among my first thoughts, but a) I didn't wan tto start there and b) like STILL, ugh. But yeah. The same kind of people who would be like "woah, the mary-ju-wanna!?!? For a QB?" might also be the same sort of old schoolers who hold other long-since dismissed beliefs
Re: Round 1 (26) - Jordan Love, QB Utah State
Posted: 07 May 2020 12:49
by Yoop
But Gutey said, perfectly clearly, that the board didn't fall right for WR; that the trade-back options weren't great. That they had Love very high and the value was too good to pass up. Gutey talked specifically after day one and day two about the early run of WRs putting a dent in the value for that position on the board. We can't know if it was Ayiuk, Jefferson, or Reagor that he meant when he talked about the run in the early-mid twenties. But he said it, specifically, that after that run, it was pretty clear WR wouldn't be their pick. We do have evidence of that.
I agree one of these 3, possibly all 3, where the choice till they where gone, once they went I think Love's positional value held a higher grade then Queen or other players, QB's don't fall as much into the realm of BPA, LIKE edge rusher, BPA doesn't exactly apply to them either, ya need em, ya take em, not to comes with dire consequences, same with groomer QB's.
I hate this pick, but when honest I understand it, if they don't think Loves grow on trees, and many don't, then ya have to pick the green apple, and hope it's like a Arkansas red ruby, pick in Oct, not ready to eat till march
I hate this pick, but when honest I understand it, if they don't think Loves grow on trees, and many don't, then ya have to pick the green apple, and hope it's like a Arkansas red ruby, pick in Oct, not ready to eat till march
I hate this pick, but when honest I understand it, if they don't think Loves grow on trees, and many don't, then ya have to pick the green apple, and hope it's like a Arkansas red ruby, pick in Oct, not ready to eat till march
I just love everything about this sentence
haha, I took a vacation in Arkansas one year bought a bushel of Ruby Reds, hard as a rock in Oct, sweet and delicious late February, lets hope Love ripens up the same way
according to Guty that was not the case, he said that once the top 4 wr( I think it was 4 ) where gone that Love had there highest draft grade, thats if we can believe him, I do because I think we'd have heard more rumble from Rodgers.
I'm still curious why you think Rodgers would know who was stacked where on Gute's board.
according to Guty that was not the case, he said that once the top 4 wr( I think it was 4 ) where gone that Love had there highest draft grade, thats if we can believe him, I do because I think we'd have heard more rumble from Rodgers.
I'm still curious why you think Rodgers would know who was stacked where on Gute's board.
Surely Rodgers isn't knowing that?
well I didn't say he new for sure, but he does have sources, no way Guty and FO could keep a lid on there intentions to move up and take Love, you seem to think 1265 is the equivalent of the oval office for keeping secr..., eh, well, bad choice I guess but you get my drift lol
remember the grounds keeper, it's practically common knowledge that he's the one that tipped Favre off that the FO was going to ............ way back when....... and look how that turned out
Re: Round 1 (26) - Jordan Love, QB Utah State
Posted: 11 May 2020 21:44
by go pak go
Re: Round 1 (26) - Jordan Love, QB Utah State
Posted: 04 Aug 2020 12:21
by NCF
This actually makes a ton of sense to me and probably why if you looked at a bunch of mocks Love was anywhere from Top-10 to not even in the 1st-round.
Re: Round 1 (26) - Jordan Love, QB Utah State
Posted: 01 May 2021 21:06
by Drj820
Love would have run it in the end zone on 3rd and 8 in the NFCCG. Just sayin.
Is that too simplistic?
