Packers Huddle

That is such a cool chart.

go pak go wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 08:45

That is such a cool chart.

Wanna see it bigger for my aging eyes.

Safety, ewwww.
TE, LB and RB as expected

Little interesting to see that spread from IDL to IOL vs that of T to edge.

Although it understand, I believe, what this graph is showing, is basically the value of getting a good player on a rookie contract vs a free market contract, so I guess is shouldn't be surprising. Would probably get roughly the same order if you just order positions by their top 10 average salaries.

But also of note, we are sitting real pretty at pick 15, pretty much the peak value. Adding in 13 wouldn't hurt.

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 09:05

But also of note, we are sitting real pretty at pick 15, pretty much the peak value. Adding in 13 wouldn't hurt.


image.png

Yeah, the players selected 13th and 15th will total about the cost of the 5th overall pick over the course of their rookie deals.

I like spreading the injury/bust risk instead of one big bite...

I get he's but just a lowly blogger, but I'm sold, no TE's in round 1.

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 09:05

go pak go wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 08:45

That is such a cool chart.

Wanna see it bigger for my aging eyes.

Safety, ewwww.
TE, LB and RB as expected

Little interesting to see that spread from IDL to IOL vs that of T to edge.

Although it understand, I believe, what this graph is showing, is basically the value of getting a good player on a rookie contract vs a free market contract, so I guess is shouldn't be surprising. Would probably get roughly the same order if you just order positions by their top 10 average salaries.

But also of note, we are sitting real pretty at pick 15, pretty much the peak value. Adding in 13 wouldn't hurt.


image.png

scarcity of stud talent at these key positions imo is why they make more, and are in higher demand, a team without a QB is like a tuna flopping on a beach lol. and the player who insures that fish is swimming safely comes next

surprised to see TE ranked so low, imo probably because it is such a difficult position to be real good at, and teams have to scheme them into there pass schemes, or there main responsibility is as a blocker, which tends to become the trend for most drafted Te's.

I can't come up for a good reason why safety's is last, I suppose because they don't require coverage ability like a corner or the tackling ability of a lber, and so many small lbers and cod less corners become safety's

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 09:32

I get he but just a lowly blogger, but I'm sold, no TE's in round 1.

Ehh, not sold on this one. I heard him elaborate more on this position in a recent episode, pointing to TJ Hockenson and Kyle Pitts as amazing prospects that didn't amount to much, but his logic is very flawed. He just thinks: there you go, Round 1 TEs are not worth the risk.

That is not my analysis. You also have to look at the circumstances of those teams, and compare it to ours. I am not suprised Hock and Pitts didn't work out for DET or ATL, those are bad teams that lacked the coaching expertise to utilize them effectively, plus their QBs have mostly been bad. Yet if either of those two landed up with a good coach like Shanahan and a competent QB? I think the production would more than justify the 1st.

It's the same thing as when people were like "OMG, never give RBs a second contract!" before we re-signed Aaron Jones. It was a conclusion that failed to take context into account, much less compare the context of those examples to our situation.

Yoop wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 09:41

surprised to see TE ranked so low, imo probably because it is such a difficult position to be real good at,

THinking more about this specific graph, top of the line TE money is like 11-12M a year. First round contracts can be for 5-6M, as high as 8 right at the top. Even if you get an amazing TE in the first, only like 1/2 the price of getting a top end TE in FA.

Compared to QB, top of the line QB's making 40+ right now. Get one of those guys at that 5-6M, maybe even 8M, now you are taking crazy value improvement.

Seems like that is all this graph is showing really. Basically, if you want max value for your draft pick, get a good player at a position where elite players are most expense. Even getting like a cruddy Daniel Jones on a rookie contract, is probably better than getting an all-pro TE on a rookie contract. Can just save 30M a year from rookie contract to average starting level QB contract, whereas TE, you can really only save like 5-7M?

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 10:44

Basically, if you want max value for your draft pick, get a good player at a position where elite players are most expensive.

Exactly

" You don't win in the NFL by paying players what they are worth, you win by paying them less."

- Andrew Brandt
.

Which then also really makes me question the Quay Walker pick as well, even if he is a pretty decent starter, we just really weren't hitting best value for that pick.

.

I feel like the Packers of yesteryears would have taken George Karlaftis over Quay Walker, but that the Barry D and De'Vondre Campbell's 2021 season brought about (maybe) a paradigm-shift in how we value the ILB position.

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 09:32

I get he's but just a lowly blogger, but I'm sold, no TE's in round 1.

Sure thing. So then, the opposite side of that coin means that we should pick DEFENSE with our first pick. Hahaha

Mock sim draft:

[1.15] Myles Murphy - EDGE | Clemson
[2.45] Darnell Washington - TE | Georgia
[3.79] Cedric Tillman - WR | Tennessee
[4.116] J.L. Skinner - S | Boise State
[5(?).149] Andrew Vorhees - IOL | USC
[5.162] Xavier Hutchinson - WR | Iowa State
[5.170] Josh Whyle - TE | Cincinnati

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 11:05

Which then also really makes me question the Quay Walker pick as well, even if he is a pretty decent starter, we just really weren't hitting best value for that pick.

evolution plays into that pick, offenses are running more now and using more up tempo schemes, and throwing into shorter windows that are occupied by lbers and safety's/star personal, that will drive up the value of those positions, least thats what I see happening.

imho when you see a bumper crop of TE's, ILB's or safety's it's partly do to the demands on those positions now needed in the nfl, it's a copy cat thing, whatever is working in the NFL or college will soon be instituted in the other.

I remember when Belichick had so much success with Gronk and Hernandez, a year later teams where tr4ying to emulate those 2 TE schemes, they just didn't have the talented TE's to accomplish that type success.

to me 2nd contracts are all about production, doesn't matter so much what position delivers it, sure obviously some positions deliver more rewarding production then others, and why top pay is less for one over another, but that is starting to adjust itself now imo,

Labrev wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 13:46

Mock sim draft:

[1.15] Myles Murphy - EDGE | Clemson
[2.45] Darnell Washington - TE | Georgia
[3.79] Cedric Tillman - WR | Tennessee
[4.116] J.L. Skinner - S | Boise State
[5(?).149] Andrew Vorhees - IOL | USC
[5.162] Xavier Hutchinson - WR | Iowa State
[5.170] Josh Whyle - TE | Cincinnati

nice, ya hit all the needs, I think if Murphy is still there we should make that pick, I'd think we'd have to trade up for Washington though, the rest I havn't researched enough to comment.

Labrev wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 13:46

Mock sim draft:

[1.15] Myles Murphy - EDGE | Clemson
[2.45] Darnell Washington - TE | Georgia
[3.79] Cedric Tillman - WR | Tennessee
[4.116] J.L. Skinner - S | Boise State
[5(?).149] Andrew Vorhees - IOL | USC
[5.162] Xavier Hutchinson - WR | Iowa State
[5.170] Josh Whyle - TE | Cincinnati

PFF Looks like its up and running again with trades and all.

BF004 wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 14:48

PFF Looks like its up and running again with trades and all.

Yesssssss!!

New mock....

(1a) LVN - EDGE, Iowa
---
(2a) S. LaPorta - TE, Iowa
(2b) K. Benton - DL, WI
(2c) Antonio Johnson - S, TX
(3a) C. Zavala - IOL, NC St
(3b) T. Kraft - TE, SDSU
---
(4) Anthony Johnson - S, Iowa State (to maximize confusion)
(5) some EDGE who I forgot lol, prolific small school guy
(5) Brodric Martin - DL, West. KY

Pro: lots of talent added to TE and DL where we lack bodies; Con: no WR.

I almost took Flowers with our Round 1 pick (traded back from 15 to 19).

So the Iowa State kid Will McDonald IV is a Milwaukeean, played football at Waukesha North High School.

I don't understand trading up to take a WR. The Packers don't need a starting WR, they need depth.
Where is this WR going to play? Certainly not WR#1. That is Christian Watson. Unless Watson gets hurt, he is going to start every game at WR#1. There is only a very very very small chance that this #10 pick will ever be better than Watson.

Well how about WR#2? Again, the Packers have Doubs who has been better as a rookie than anyone not named Watson or Adams. Now it is possible that this rookie 10th pick will be better than the 2nd year Doubs, but it is not likely. This #10 pick might wind up as the starter in the 2025 season, but only at the expense of Doubs sitting on the bench. Either way, you have starting talent sitting on the bench.

Of course a team needs a slot receiver, but slot receiver is a part time position as there are times when a team wants 2 TE's or 2 RB's on the field. Do you really want this #10 pick in a part time position?

This team has needs. Specifically pass rusher, safety, RT and TE. Gary is coming off an ACL. In the last few years we have seen Bakh, Jennings and Tonyan return from an ACL but none were what they were their first year after their injury. If you are going to move up, get the best pass rusher. It is conceivable that you could take a RT at #15. Otherwise trade back and get a safety and a TE from that #15 pick and hope that you can hit on a pass rusher in the 2nd round, start Tom at RT and hope that someone deserves the swing OT job.

Labrev wrote: ↑

07 Apr 2023 18:18

So the Iowa State kid Will McDonald IV is a Milwaukeean, played football at Waukesha North High School.

Always bugs me when UW can’t close in on that homegrown talent.