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Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 10:01
by BF004
Yoop wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 09:49
Rookie wide receivers with at least 750 receiving yards since 2018
Player Year Receiving yards
Justin Jefferson 2020 1,400
A.J. Brown 2019 1,051
CeeDee Lamb 2020 935
Terry McLaurin 2019 919
Tee Higgins 2020 908
D.K. Metcalf 2019 900
Chase Claypool 2020 873
Jerry Jeudy 2020 856
Deebo Samuel 2019 802
That is 9 out of 133 WR's drafted. And only 3 of them from the 1st round (Jefferson, Lamb, Jeudy, without double checking).
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Only 3 of 15 (20%) of 1st round WR's have contributed 750 receiving yards since 2018.
That just doesn't scream to me that everything will just magically work just because we take a WR in the 1st.
If anything I would have expected better, and I wasn't expecting much. 750 receiving yards isn't all that impressive of a season to be honest. The data you are providing is pretty much just making me less optimistic about expectations for any rookies we add.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 10:17
by Pckfn23
What's being stated here? Impactful? Start day 1 as a rookie? Contribute? It seems to be changing, often. In the larger context of what has been talked about this draft season, I think the conversation centers around finding that receiver that can make an impact in their rookie year, not just in their career.
Here are all the rookies drafted since 2018 that have eclipsed 750 yards:
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Here is 500 to 749:
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28 first round rookie receivers had gained 750+ yards since 2000.
88 receivers have been drafted in the first round since 2000.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 10:21
by NCF
BF004 wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 10:01
Yoop wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 09:49
Rookie wide receivers with at least 750 receiving yards since 2018
Player Year Receiving yards
Justin Jefferson 2020 1,400
A.J. Brown 2019 1,051
CeeDee Lamb 2020 935
Terry McLaurin 2019 919
Tee Higgins 2020 908
D.K. Metcalf 2019 900
Chase Claypool 2020 873
Jerry Jeudy 2020 856
Deebo Samuel 2019 802
That is 9 out of 133 WR's drafted. And only 3 of them from the 1st round (Jefferson, Lamb, Jeudy, without double checking).
image.png
Only 3 of 15 (20%) of 1st round WR's have contributed 750 receiving yards since 2018.
That just doesn't scream to me that everything will just magically work just because we take a WR in the 1st.
If anything I would have expected better, and I wasn't expecting much. 750 receiving yards isn't all that impressive of a season to be honest. The data you are providing is pretty much just making me less optimistic about expectations for any rookies we add.
Looks like [mention]Yoop[/mention]'s data has not been updated for 2021, as Ja'Marr Chase should be the headliner on this list. Still, the point remains. Also, if we compare the talent from draft classes, I would venture 2022 compares most favorably to 2018. It's definitely not 2020 and I don't think it approaches 2019, either. 2018 is pretty conspicuously missing from [mention]Yoop[/mention]'s list, which is just another reason to pause and really think about what we might be getting Year 1.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 10:24
by Yoop
BF004 wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 10:01
Yoop wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 09:49
Rookie wide receivers with at least 750 receiving yards since 2018
Player Year Receiving yards
Justin Jefferson 2020 1,400
A.J. Brown 2019 1,051
CeeDee Lamb 2020 935
Terry McLaurin 2019 919
Tee Higgins 2020 908
D.K. Metcalf 2019 900
Chase Claypool 2020 873
Jerry Jeudy 2020 856
Deebo Samuel 2019 802
That is 9 out of 133 WR's drafted. And only 3 of them from the 1st round (Jefferson, Lamb, Jeudy, without double checking).
image.png
Only 3 of 15 (20%) of 1st round WR's have contributed 750 receiving yards since 2018.
That just doesn't scream to me that everything will just magically work just because we take a WR in the 1st.
If anything I would have expected better, and I wasn't expecting much. 750 receiving yards isn't all that impressive of a season to be honest. The data you are providing is pretty much just making me less optimistic about expectations for any rookies we add.
seems I mis read some data, I think 750 yrds from a rookie is fine, ya don't draft them to play one year, my main point is I don't want Guty to draft a bunch of groomers as he did as few years back,
I look at how Minny used Jefferson, we have basically the same offense, now I'am not saying any of these WR is JJ, but we can use a few in this class the same way, and it should be easier for us because Rodgers is better then Cousins and Lafluer is suppose to be a master at exploiting a receivers ability.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 10:27
by Pckfn23
Since 1994 only 3 receivers have made All-Pro as rookies, Randy Moss, Justin Jefferson, and JaMarr Chase.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 10:30
by Pckfn23
ya don't draft them to play one year, my main point is I don't want Guty to draft a bunch of groomers as he did as few years back,
Too bad Gary didn't get this amount of patience...
Here was the OP:
packman114 wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 08:28
Just a general question as I don't really watch much college football. Why do so many "experts" and people on this board say we need a to draft a WR in the 1st round? I hear many saying the Packers have only been to one SB with Rodgers because of no 1st round WRs...
...I can definitely see we need to draft a couple of WRs but I don't think it MUST be a 1st rounder. Seems to me there are a lot of WRs available this year but not so many DL or inside LBs. It seems to make sense to me to get what there is less of and wait to get the position there are a lot of choices.
A round 1 WR doesn't automatically mean season 1 impactful player, nor does it mean impactful career.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 10:38
by BF004
packman114 wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 08:28
Just a general question as I don't really watch much college football. Why do so many "experts" and people on this board say we need a to draft a WR in the 1st round? I hear many saying the Packers have only been to one SB with Rodgers because of no 1st round WRs. But Brady made it to all those SBs with only Terry Glenn who was drafted by Parcells and N'Keal Harry who didn't do anything for them. We had arguably the best WR in the league the last 3 years on our team and didn't make a SB.
I can definitely see we need to draft a couple of WRs but I don't think it MUST be a 1st rounder. Seems to me there are a lot of WRs available this year but not so many DL or inside LBs. It seems to make sense to me to get what there is less of and wait to get the position there are a lot of choices.
Anyways, back to this
I won't shed a tier (pun intended) if we don't get a WR on Thursday. I will wait to view the whole progression.
If we come out of the draft with a decent TE target, and maybe like a Jalen Tolbert and a Tyquan Thornton. I would actually be really excited headed where that group as a whole is headed.
Would I prefer we trade up for Jameson Williams and trade for Darren Waller to get a better group and does our group look a lot better on paper? Of course. But that also doesn't guarantee to long term fix either. We could very easily be a better team overall by using those resources elsewhere.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 11:07
by go pak go
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 11:14
by go pak go
Yoop wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 09:19
do we need our first round receiver to get a K as a rookie, of course not, simply getting half that will help others contribute more as a result, same with any receiver taken later.
I don't understand some in this forum shooting down obvious first round receiver talent in this draft.
So if the goal now is "500 yards"....we can get that in the 5th round or later.
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Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 11:15
by BF004
Really helpful site here:
http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/wr
Super easy to copy and paste into excel, what I just did above to quickly get that WR draft by year by round table.
Lot of helpful tables.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 11:21
by BF004
First time we are picking pick 22 (If we do) since Ron Hallstrom
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Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 11:25
by go pak go
I recommend not picking QB at pick #22.
yeesh. Grossman is the best of the bunch. By a mile.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 11:37
by Yoop
go pak go wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 11:07
Yoop wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 10:24
the reason that more WR don't excel as rookies has more to do with QB, schemes, and coaches that are so short sighted that they require the rookies to know the whole play book and don't get them enough practice time with the QB to develop some chemistry, imo these are the biggest reason why we don't see more Justin Jefferson type rookie seasons from receivers.
So you just described how Aaron Rodgers treats rookie WR's....like to a "T".
why are you so quick to blame this on Rodgers, conservatism is McCarthys MO, still that didn't stop Adams from contributing as a rookie, and others where held back because of talent in front of them.
if Cousins under basically the same scheme can get 1400 from Jefferson, then a Wilson or Olave should be able to get a K, or do you think Lafluer or Rodgers are incapable of getting that sort of production from a rookie?
I don't , not in the least, in fact I would predict it, we have the perfect setup to accomplish that, anything they can do in Minnesota we can certainly do in GB.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 11:45
by Yoop
saw that, heres what seems to be missing from my comments and this chart bares out, YOU and OTHERS here seem to lump Lafluer and Rodgers in with all these other defunct offensive coaches and teams, we will get more out of a rookie receiver because we have offensive schemes to better accomplish that, the fit is what catapults these rookie receivers, most have basically good talent, it's how there used that matters.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 12:07
by go pak go
Oh yoop.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 12:12
by Realist
go pak go wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 11:14
Yoop wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 09:19
do we need our first round receiver to get a K as a rookie, of course not, simply getting half that will help others contribute more as a result, same with any receiver taken later.
I don't understand some in this forum shooting down obvious first round receiver talent in this draft.
So if the goal now is "500 yards"....we can get that in the 5th round or later.
image.png
Not sure how it fits here but Watkins has averaged 505 receiving yds his last six years and ironically only surpassing 750 his first two yrs in the league.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 12:16
by go pak go
Realist wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 12:12
go pak go wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 11:14
Yoop wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 09:19
do we need our first round receiver to get a K as a rookie, of course not, simply getting half that will help others contribute more as a result, same with any receiver taken later.
I don't understand some in this forum shooting down obvious first round receiver talent in this draft.
So if the goal now is "500 yards"....we can get that in the 5th round or later.
image.png
Not sure how it fits here but Watkins has averaged 505 receiving yds his last six years and ironically only surpassing 750 his first two yrs in the league.
We got our man!
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 12:20
by packman114
Yoop wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 08:42
packman114 wrote: ↑26 Apr 2022 08:28
Just a general question as I don't really watch much college football. Why do so many "experts" and people on this board say we need a to draft a WR in the 1st round? I hear many saying the Packers have only been to one SB with Rodgers because of no 1st round WRs. But Brady made it to all those SBs with only Terry Glenn who was drafted by Parcells and N'Keal Harry who didn't do anything for them. We had arguably the best WR in the league the last 3 years on our team and didn't make a SB.
I can definitely see we need to draft a couple of WRs but I don't think it MUST be a 1st rounder. Seems to me there are a lot of WRs available this year but not so many DL or inside LBs. It seems to make sense to me to get what there is less of and wait to get the position there are a lot of choices.
so you think it's best to scramble for the hardest to find, and pass on all the low hanging fruit? I don't quite understand that reasoning, we lack ready to play WR talent, guys in the 2nd or later rounds often need some seasoning in, coaching up, do we have that kind of time to wait?
also Belichick used a ton of two TE sets and very good slot receivers to win SB.
when Rodgers had a stable of quality receivers we had one of the most potent offenses in the league, our reasons for failure had to do more with defense and ST's.
It's a passing league, it will always be a passing league, there fore Quality WR's matter.
You're missing my point. If there are 10 WRs that could start for us in the draft vs 3 DL/LBs who could contribute right away, I would spend early picks on the DL/LB and get the WR in the next round or two. Especially with a QB who is demanding of route running and adjustments. WR talent does not seem as hard to come by given our history with 2nd round picks. Having the best receiver in football didn't get us to a SB so why do we NEED to pick one in first round.
BAP had never been more relevant than this year.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 12:21
by NCF
Here is another thing that I think the Draft Community sucks at scouting. For these tweener DL, are they EDGE guys or are they interior DL? I think that was the primary reason we didn't have Rashan Gary on our radar in 2019 because most saw him as an interior DL. How do we get better at these?
What is DeMarvin Leal? What is Logan Hall? What is Josh Paschal? Etc.
Re: 2022 Draft Discussion
Posted: 26 Apr 2022 12:21
by Yoop
instead of laughing at me, why don't you look into the reason some of these receivers stud year one and other don't, you will find as I have that it's not just talent.
for people her to think that Rodgers and Lafluer with basically the same offensive schemes as minny aren't capable of this to me is nothing more then a insult to Matt and AR.