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Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 20 Dec 2020 20:27
by YoHoChecko
packman114 wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:25
Do we win a 3way tie with Saints and Seahawks?
Depends; if we lose to the Bears and beat the Titans, we lose that tiebreaker.
If we lose to the Titans and beat the Bears, we win that tiebreaker
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 20 Dec 2020 20:46
by go pak go
packman114 wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:25
Do we win a 3way tie with Saints and Seahawks?
We do if we beat the Bears.
Our path to the #1 seed is simple.
1. WIN vs Chicago and we are the #1 seed.
2. WIN vs TN AND SEA loss or tie either to LAR or SF and we are the #1 seed
3. Saints lose to MN and CAR AND SEA loss to Rams and 49ers.
#3 is a maybe. I don't know. The Rams could technically be the #1 seed at 11 wins. It would get really, really funky with the Rams, Packers, Seahawks etc at 11 wins.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 20 Dec 2020 20:56
by German_Panzer
So we
could basically tank the Titans game and focus on the Bears?
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 20 Dec 2020 20:59
by YoHoChecko
German_Panzer wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:56
So we
could basically tank the Titans game and focus on the Bears?
We could, but we also would gain nothing from that approach that I can think of
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 20 Dec 2020 20:59
by go pak go
German_Panzer wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:56
So we
could basically tank the Titans game and focus on the Bears?
I mean there is no reason to. Like what are you going to learn in two weeks of prep that we wouldn't know in one week?
Plus, if we beat TN and Seattle loses once...the Titans win counts so why would you discount beating the Titans?
But yes. The Titans game at least for us fans watching will act as a mulligan. If we lay an egg, we get a 2nd chance.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 20 Dec 2020 22:25
by German_Panzer
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:59
German_Panzer wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:56
So we
could basically tank the Titans game and focus on the Bears?
We could, but we also would gain nothing from that approach that I can think of
Resting players ro prevent injuries or to cut their playing time ro keep them fresh?
But I agree that it would be weird and could destroy rhythm.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 06:15
by go pak go
German_Panzer wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 22:25
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:59
German_Panzer wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:56
So we
could basically tank the Titans game and focus on the Bears?
We could, but we also would gain nothing from that approach that I can think of
Resting players ro prevent injuries or to cut their playing time ro keep them fresh?
But I agree that it would be weird and could destroy rhythm.
The fresh thing doesn't make much sense considering we will have a bye if we achieve what we want. In fact, I think too much rest may be a bad thing.
Don't overthink it. Just play to win the game.
In fact...everyone wants to always talk about test game? THIS IS A TEST GAME. This Titans offense is LEGIT. These guys are putting 40+ constantly. These guys are on the level of the high flying Packers and Chiefs. This is not the stereotype "rely on the defense and hand off to Henry." This is a GOOD offense with threats through the air and run. If we can hold the Titans under 30....we can hold anyone under 30.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 06:19
by salmar80
go pak go wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 06:15
German_Panzer wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 22:25
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑20 Dec 2020 20:59
We could, but we also would gain nothing from that approach that I can think of
Resting players ro prevent injuries or to cut their playing time ro keep them fresh?
But I agree that it would be weird and could destroy rhythm.
The fresh thing doesn't make much sense considering we will have a bye if we achieve what we want. In fact, I think too much rest may be a bad thing.
Don't overthink it. Just play to win the game.
Yup.
Playing to win in regular season games is the bestest practice and playoff prep available.
IF we had a completely meaningless game, still would play to win, but give some extra experience reps to the young and rarely used players, see if someone emerges to be of more use in the playoffs.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 08:56
by NCF
I will say if we do end up playing a meaningless game in Week 17, no superstars in street clothes. Rodgers starts. I don't care if its's one series. Still prepares the mind to play a football game. Street clothes... might as well send him on a vacation. I would also like to see both Boyle and Love play after that. Maybe Boyle finishes the 1st-half and Love gets the 2nd-half or something along those lines. Although, I think there is some strategic risk to playing 3 QB's that early in the game in that neither Rodgers or Boyle could come back in, but if the game is meaningless, so what. Run wildcat the rest of the day with AJ Dillon.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 09:05
by YoHoChecko
NCF wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 08:56
I will say if we do end up playing a meaningless game in Week 17, no superstars in street clothes. Rodgers starts. I don't care if its's one series. Still prepares the mind to play a football game. Street clothes... might as well send him on a vacation. I would also like to see both Boyle and Love play after that. Maybe Boyle finishes the 1st-half and Love gets the 2nd-half or something along those lines. Although, I think there is some strategic risk to playing 3 QB's that early in the game in that neither Rodgers or Boyle could come back in, but if the game is meaningless, so what. Run wildcat the rest of the day with AJ Dillon.
Yeah, a 2-week layoff would be too much, for sure.
I'm ok with resting some people with lingering injuries, but for the most part, the team needs to go through the same prep, the same motions, the same routines.
I feel like the Jags beating the Bears to give Lawrence back to the Jets and knock the Bears from the playoffs is a hilariously plausible outcome this week, but barring that, the Bears will be playing to win no matter what, so a division rivalry and some pride, plus a chance to show off for some lower-roster types should be enough motivation to bring the fight.
I'll be rooting for the Rams and actually for the Steelers tomorrow. If the Colts beat the Steelers, the Titans are basically going to need to win out to win the division (Colts play the Jags in weeks 17) and I'm always wary when one team NEEDS a game more than the other. When talent is similar, that can make a difference.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 09:28
by go pak go
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 09:05
NCF wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 08:56
I will say if we do end up playing a meaningless game in Week 17, no superstars in street clothes. Rodgers starts. I don't care if its's one series. Still prepares the mind to play a football game. Street clothes... might as well send him on a vacation. I would also like to see both Boyle and Love play after that. Maybe Boyle finishes the 1st-half and Love gets the 2nd-half or something along those lines. Although, I think there is some strategic risk to playing 3 QB's that early in the game in that neither Rodgers or Boyle could come back in, but if the game is meaningless, so what. Run wildcat the rest of the day with AJ Dillon.
Yeah, a 2-week layoff would be too much, for sure.
I'm ok with resting some people with lingering injuries, but for the most part, the team needs to go through the same prep, the same motions, the same routines.
I feel like the Jags beating the Bears to give Lawrence back to the Jets and knock the Bears from the playoffs is a hilariously plausible outcome this week, but barring that, the Bears will be playing to win no matter what, so a division rivalry and some pride, plus a chance to show off for some lower-roster types should be enough motivation to bring the fight.
I'll be rooting for the Rams and actually for the Steelers tomorrow. If the Colts beat the Steelers, the Titans are basically going to need to win out to win the division (Colts play the Jags in weeks 17) and I'm always wary when one team NEEDS a game more than the other. When talent is similar, that can make a difference.
Yeah I tell you what. I think this Titans team is going to be DANGEROUS for us. I am very much looking forward to us having a really hard matchup as a Playoff prep with so much potentially on the line.
It's a great matchup vs a high end team who will likely be 11-5 or 12-4 and the best part is a loss doesn't mean we can't recapture what we lost the following week.
We really got lucky here. This is why I wanted to beat the Colts so bad because I figured we could drop one of either IND or TN. Now that we can drop both and be okay....very fortunate.
And the records show too. The NFC is going to have potentially two playoff teams at 7-9 to 9-7 in the postseason. Whereas the AFC could very well have an 11-5 but likely a 10-6 team not make the playoffs which is unreal with 7 teams.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 09:31
by go pak go
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 09:05
NCF wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 08:56
I will say if we do end up playing a meaningless game in Week 17, no superstars in street clothes. Rodgers starts. I don't care if its's one series. Still prepares the mind to play a football game. Street clothes... might as well send him on a vacation. I would also like to see both Boyle and Love play after that. Maybe Boyle finishes the 1st-half and Love gets the 2nd-half or something along those lines. Although, I think there is some strategic risk to playing 3 QB's that early in the game in that neither Rodgers or Boyle could come back in, but if the game is meaningless, so what. Run wildcat the rest of the day with AJ Dillon.
Yeah, a 2-week layoff would be too much, for sure.
I'm ok with resting some people with lingering injuries, but for the most part, the team needs to go through the same prep, the same motions, the same routines.
I agree. If there are injuries and guys who would benefit from two weeks off...like Gary for instance, rest them. Let them get good for January.
But otherwise let's play to win. Maybe reduce the snaps for guys like Adams in favor of EQSB etc. But otherwise let's play to win. If we get up pretty big, feel free to rest guys like 69, 12, 17, 33, 23, 55, 97, 20 at halftime.
But otherwise, just treat the game like a game during the week.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 09:33
by YoHoChecko
Yeah, the Titans are a pretty terrible matchup for us because they have a great back who breaks tackles and we have a bad run D who can't tackle.
Fortunately their defense isn't that good, especially the secondary, so if Rodgers can bounce back and play a strong game, it can be an offensive slugfest between two of the best in the league. But we're going to have to expect a lot of painful runs and drives along the way.
I guess that's more for a gameday thread, though; you're right, for the 1-seed, it's very advantageous that we can drop this game and still win it the next week; not that we'd want to, but that we can.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 09:38
by go pak go
NCF wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 08:56
I will say if we do end up playing a meaningless game in Week 17, no superstars in street clothes. Rodgers starts. I don't care if its's one series. Still prepares the mind to play a football game. Street clothes... might as well send him on a vacation. I would also like to see both Boyle and Love play after that. Maybe Boyle finishes the 1st-half and Love gets the 2nd-half or something along those lines. Although, I think there is some strategic risk to playing 3 QB's that early in the game in that neither Rodgers or Boyle could come back in, but if the game is meaningless, so what. Run wildcat the rest of the day with AJ Dillon.
I mean come on. How does this even make sense? You can't get into a groove by splitting snaps between 8 and 10 in a game even if 12 doesn't start. There is no way these guys can get into a groove.
Why is there this obsession to play 10? Set your players up for success. Get Boyle out there. The guy who has earned the #2 job and let him showcase his skills. Give him the opportunity to show the world he is a good player. That way we can tender him again. Have him compete with Love in 2021 and have a great QB battle in the preseason.
At that point, hopefully we can get some value for TBLS.
Tim won the job. He won the job because he is really good. He has earned it. Don't be that team that puts draft pick over the guy who won the job. And set Jordan up for success. There is absolutely zero reason to put Jordan out there. He won't even be in the conversation to be our man until 2022 at the earliest. Likely 2023.
I don't think the Ravens snaps for Rodgers in 2005 had anything to do with his future success. The offseasons did. The TC's did. The preseasons did and the Scout team practices did.
QB2 is Boyle's job. He earned it. He deserves to play it, and it gives us the best chance to win currently.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 09:40
by go pak go
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 09:33
Yeah, the Titans are a pretty terrible matchup for us because they have a great back who breaks tackles and we have a bad run D who can't tackle.
Fortunately their defense isn't that good, especially the secondary, so if Rodgers can bounce back and play a strong game, it can be an offensive slugfest between two of the best in the league. But we're going to have to expect a lot of painful runs and drives along the way.
I guess that's more for a gameday thread, though; you're right, for the 1-seed, it's very advantageous that we can drop this game and still win it the next week; not that we'd want to, but that we can.
And their passing attack is really good. They have legit WRs.
I will be tickled pink if we hold em under 27 points. I will be happy if we hold em under 30.
And I want to start a Game Day thread....but I will never do it again. The only time I started one was vs Tampa and we don't need that kind of energy right now.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 09:47
by YoHoChecko
I agree strongly that there is literally no good reason to play Jordan Love. There's no rush to "see what we have" especially since "what we have" isn't a finished product.
The desire to see Love is ONLY based on a notion that the fans want/deserve evidence that their team made a smart draft pick and they deserve that evidence THIS YEAR.
100%, the franchise has much much more to gain by playing Boyle than Love, in that he could become an NFL-ready tradable asset sooner, allowing Love to take the backup job on the active roster next year instead of keeping 3 QBs.
Love will present no trade value for the franchise even if he balls out, because the cost of acquiring him was already a 2020 1st and 4th and we won't recoup that value anytime soon. Boyle cost nothing but time and a roster spot while he developed, and he's a good player with a big arm in a league where no less than 2-3 teams are running a very similar offense and might need enhanced backups with starter upside (49ers, Broncos, and Rams).
If Boyle has a strong showing in a regular season game and then a strong preseason showing next year, you can score a mid-round pick for him.
Love, as I've said since the draft, is not a 2020 story and probably shouldn't be a 2021 story either, unless an injury happens. Putting him in a game for the sake of it accomplishes nothing.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 10:03
by YoHoChecko
Ok, according to FPI (538/Elo) the Packers have a 79% chance at the 1-seed and a 13% chance at winning the Super Bowl
According to Football Outsiders, the Packers have a 77.5% chance at the 1-seed and a 18.1% chance at winning the Super Bowl
The FPI index has the Packers 3rd most-likely to win the Super Bowl with the Chiefs at 35%, the Saints at 18%, and the Bills at 9%
Football Outsiders has the Packers 2nd most-likely to win the Super Bowl with the Chiefs at 23.8, the Saints at 15.8%, and the Bills at 10.1%
If we have a 13-18% chance at winning it all, that means we have an 82-87% likelihood of NOT winning it all.
Compared to perfection, we are a longshot.
But compared to our peers, we are the 2nd or 3rd most likely team to win it all.
Compared to our peers, we are among the favorites.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 10:04
by RingoCStarrQB
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 09:47
I agree strongly that there is literally no good reason to play Jordan Love. There's no rush to "see what we have" especially since "what we have" isn't a finished product.
The desire to see Love is ONLY based on a notion that the fans want/deserve evidence that their team made a smart draft pick and they deserve that evidence THIS YEAR.
100%, the franchise has much much more to gain by playing Boyle than Love, in that he could become an NFL-ready tradable asset sooner, allowing Love to take the backup job on the active roster next year instead of keeping 3 QBs.
Love will present no trade value for the franchise even if he balls out, because the cost of acquiring him was already a 2020 1st and 4th and we won't recoup that value anytime soon. Boyle cost nothing but time and a roster spot while he developed, and he's a good player with a big arm in a league where no less than 2-3 teams are running a very similar offense and might need enhanced backups with starter upside (49ers, Broncos, and Rams).
If Boyle has a strong showing in a regular season game and then a strong preseason showing next year, you can score a mid-round pick for him.
Love, as I've said since the draft, is not a 2020 story and probably shouldn't be a 2021 story either, unless an injury happens. Putting him in a game for the sake of it accomplishes nothing.
This has turned out to be THEE window of opportunity year for Aaron Rodgers, Bakh, Davante, etc. on offense. I expect nothing less than full-blast go aheads versus both the Titans and Bears in the upcoming weeks ....... at least until the game outcomes are decided. I can't recall the Packers ever resting players ........ Lombardi once put in Anderson and Grabowski at the end of a game after the outcome was decided. They most likely spelled Elijah Pitts and Jimmy Taylor in Super Bowl I ........ can't remember for sure. Also if I remember correctly, Favre never ever came out. Nor did Majik.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 10:13
by NCF
go pak go wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 09:38
I mean come on. How does this even make sense? You can't get into a groove by splitting snaps between 8 and 10.
We don’t need them to get into a groove. We need them to play football against another team. Something neither has done in a really long time. I also disagree with you that Rodgers 2005 snaps were not beneficial. They are all beneficial and each of these guys could use them for obvious but very different reasons.
Re: Packers #1 Seed
Posted: 21 Dec 2020 10:18
by go pak go
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑21 Dec 2020 10:03
Ok, according to FPI (538/Elo)
the Packers have a 79% chance at the 1-seed and
a 13% chance at winning the Super Bowl
According to Football Outsiders,
the Packers have a 77.5% chance at the 1-seed and a
18.1% chance at winning the Super Bowl
The FPI index has the
Packers 3rd most-likely to win the Super Bowl with the Chiefs at 35%, the Saints at 18%, and the Bills at 9%
Football Outsiders has the
Packers 2nd most-likely to win the Super Bowl with the Chiefs at 23.8, the Saints at 15.8%, and the Bills at 10.1%
If we have a 13-18% chance at winning it all, that means we have an 82-87% likelihood of NOT winning it all.
Compared to perfection, we are a longshot.
But compared to our peers, we are the 2nd or 3rd most likely team to win it all.
Compared to our peers, we are among the favorites.
NOT GOOD ENOUGH!!! Once again shows the failure of the front office of which I have been pointing out for years. Anyone could see it.
Sure we are good enough to beat the teams that we beat. But this team isn't good enough to win the games that we lose. I mean I think it's pretty clear by now that we are a pretender and only got to the spot we are with a game advantage for the #1 seed because we just so happened to win 11 of of 14 games whereas every other team in the NFC has won less.
Color me unimpressed.