Packers Huddle

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2021 14:46

MLF offense averages around 61 plays per game and about 25 rushing attempts per game each year. In a graduated system of RB carries we may be looking at 12, 8, 5 carries for 3 backs or something like 15, 7, and 3. In the latter example, there isn't much need for the 3 unless he brings something the other 3 don't. At this point, I wouldn't say Hill brings anything Aaron Jones does not.

On the subject of spreading the ball around, on average we throw the ball 34 times a game. We probably want to get our top WR at least 12 of those looks. Aaron Jones or Dillon should probably get at least 6 a game. Robert Tonyan or any TE should probably get at least 5 targets a game. So now we are looking at about 11 targets left over for WR 2-6 and that is being conservative with the targets to the non-WRs and WR1.

There are only so many touches to go around and if we are throwing it more that may not be good for the team and their chances of success.

Pckfn23 wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2021 14:46

MLF offense averages around 61 plays per game and about 25 rushing attempts per game each year. In a graduated system of RB carries we may be looking at 12, 8, 5 carries for 3 backs or something like 15, 7, and 3. In the latter example, there isn't much need for the 3 unless he brings something the other RBs don't. At this point, I wouldn't say Hill brings anything Aaron Jones does not.

On the subject of spreading the ball around, on average we throw the ball 34 times a game. We probably want to get our top WR at least 12 of those looks. Aaron Jones or Dillon should probably get at least 6 a game. Robert Tonyan or any TE should probably get at least 5 targets a game. So now we are looking at about 11 targets left over for WR 2-6 and that is being conservative with the targets to the non-WRs and WR1.

There are only so many touches to go around and if we are throwing it more that may not be good for the team and their chances of success.

This, except we're averaging 55 plays per game this season so far, so it's even more dramatic than that.

Yoop wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2021 08:46

Drj820 wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2021 08:24

Yoop wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2021 08:17

to me Dillon is a straight line runner, once in a while we see a little lateral to adjust to hit a crease, but it takes him time to get to it, and to often he hits a wall, his power allows him to gain a few yards, the run blocking just hasn't opened big enough gaps so he can do what he did to Tenn. last year.

Why does he have to do what he did against Tennessee last year to be effective? You give him more than 5 carries a game to see him wear down a defense and get to the point where he is doing what he did against tennessee. Look at the Titans v Seattle game from this year, Henry had like 20 yards in the first half and then exploded in the second half as the hawks D got tired. Now i know we have Jones so Dillon wont be getting 30 carries a game, but I mean cmon can we get the second round pick 12 at least? Im ready to see him and Jones on the field more as Jones goes out for passes or Defenses have to guess which one is about to get the handoff.

Dillon doesnt have to look like he did against Tennessee to be doing a good job in my opinion. He averages very close to four yards a carry. Guess what that means? You could hand it to him every down and you would never turn the ball over on downs and you would find yourself on the goalline after a long drive where your D got to rest. Just need the patience for that kind of play. I love 3 yards and a cloud of dust, Rodgers doesnt seem to.

And im not trying to sound like im complaining. The O has looked fine last two games, just saying what I would like to see us get into as the season progresses.

Dillon doesn't get 4 yrds a run, he averages that because he gets a 6 or 8 yrd run to go along with his 2 or 3 yrd runs, and that does not move the chains, our run blocking as I said does not consistently open very wide run lanes, Jones excels because he hits those creases faster then the DL can close them.

I think as you said once the defense is tiring those holes remain open longer and Dillon then could do well.

I watched small ball for 30 years, 4 yrds and a cloud of dust doesn't do it for me, sure I like a run game, but I prefer what a guy like Jones gives me over the dust bowl stuff, more then anything I love a great passing QB carving up a defense.

What part of the word average do you not understand? He gets 2 yards on 1st down and 6 on 2nd down and 4 yards on 3rd down. That is 12 yards and a first down and averages to 4.0. And if he gets only 2.1 yards on 3rd down, that is still a 1st down. 3.4 yards average results in first downs.

In today's NFL, few if any teams are built to stop a power running game. Dlinemen are frequently smaller than Olinemen. Dillon is bigger than a lot of linebackers. No 180 pound CB or 200 pound safety wants any part of Dillon. Even if you are down 3 points after 3 quarters, you are facing a D where 1 CB is limping, another has a sore shoulder and cannot lift his arm above his head, one safety cannot remember his assignment because he got his bell rung and the other safety is in the tent replaced by a backup. Oh, and the pass rushers are tired. Now any QB can carve up that D.

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 03:01

Yoop wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2021 08:46

Drj820 wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2021 08:24

Why does he have to do what he did against Tennessee last year to be effective? You give him more than 5 carries a game to see him wear down a defense and get to the point where he is doing what he did against tennessee. Look at the Titans v Seattle game from this year, Henry had like 20 yards in the first half and then exploded in the second half as the hawks D got tired. Now i know we have Jones so Dillon wont be getting 30 carries a game, but I mean cmon can we get the second round pick 12 at least? Im ready to see him and Jones on the field more as Jones goes out for passes or Defenses have to guess which one is about to get the handoff.

Dillon doesnt have to look like he did against Tennessee to be doing a good job in my opinion. He averages very close to four yards a carry. Guess what that means? You could hand it to him every down and you would never turn the ball over on downs and you would find yourself on the goalline after a long drive where your D got to rest. Just need the patience for that kind of play. I love 3 yards and a cloud of dust, Rodgers doesnt seem to.

And im not trying to sound like im complaining. The O has looked fine last two games, just saying what I would like to see us get into as the season progresses.

Dillon doesn't get 4 yrds a run, he averages that because he gets a 6 or 8 yrd run to go along with his 2 or 3 yrd runs, and that does not move the chains, our run blocking as I said does not consistently open very wide run lanes, Jones excels because he hits those creases faster then the DL can close them.

I think as you said once the defense is tiring those holes remain open longer and Dillon then could do well.

I watched small ball for 30 years, 4 yrds and a cloud of dust doesn't do it for me, sure I like a run game, but I prefer what a guy like Jones gives me over the dust bowl stuff, more then anything I love a great passing QB carving up a defense.

What part of the word average do you not understand? He gets 2 yards on 1st down and 6 on 2nd down and 4 yards on 3rd down. That is 12 yards and a first down and averages to 4.0. And if he gets only 2.1 yards on 3rd down, that is still a 1st down. 3.4 yards average results in first downs.

In today's NFL, few if any teams are built to stop a power running game. Dlinemen are frequently smaller than Olinemen. Dillon is bigger than a lot of linebackers. No 180 pound CB or 200 pound safety wants any part of Dillon. Even if you are down 3 points after 3 quarters, you are facing a D where 1 CB is limping, another has a sore shoulder and cannot lift his arm above his head, one safety cannot remember his assignment because he got his bell rung and the other safety is in the tent replaced by a backup. Oh, and the pass rushers are tired. Now any QB can carve up that D.

heres what you seem to fail to grasp, a 3.4 yrd run will not inspire a coach to run again on 2nd down, unless it's to run out the clock, specially a coach with a QB like Rodgers, or on 3rd down with 3 yrds.

Yoop wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 06:31

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 03:01

Yoop wrote: ↑

30 Sep 2021 08:46

Dillon doesn't get 4 yrds a run, he averages that because he gets a 6 or 8 yrd run to go along with his 2 or 3 yrd runs, and that does not move the chains, our run blocking as I said does not consistently open very wide run lanes, Jones excels because he hits those creases faster then the DL can close them.

I think as you said once the defense is tiring those holes remain open longer and Dillon then could do well.

I watched small ball for 30 years, 4 yrds and a cloud of dust doesn't do it for me, sure I like a run game, but I prefer what a guy like Jones gives me over the dust bowl stuff, more then anything I love a great passing QB carving up a defense.

What part of the word average do you not understand? He gets 2 yards on 1st down and 6 on 2nd down and 4 yards on 3rd down. That is 12 yards and a first down and averages to 4.0. And if he gets only 2.1 yards on 3rd down, that is still a 1st down. 3.4 yards average results in first downs.

In today's NFL, few if any teams are built to stop a power running game. Dlinemen are frequently smaller than Olinemen. Dillon is bigger than a lot of linebackers. No 180 pound CB or 200 pound safety wants any part of Dillon. Even if you are down 3 points after 3 quarters, you are facing a D where 1 CB is limping, another has a sore shoulder and cannot lift his arm above his head, one safety cannot remember his assignment because he got his bell rung and the other safety is in the tent replaced by a backup. Oh, and the pass rushers are tired. Now any QB can carve up that D.

heres what you seem to fail to grasp, a 3.4 yrd run will not inspire a coach to run again on 2nd down, unless it's to run out the clock, specially a coach with a QB like Rodgers, or on 3rd down with 3 yrds.

??

Why not?

It will if you really want to be a run team, wear down a defense, dominate time of possession, or give your own defense an extended breather.

3.4 yards a pop in the first half brings the safeties into the box, opens up the deep passing game for the second half as well as exhausts the D and becomes 8 yard carries later in the game.

With Aaron Rodgers and our list of weapons on the outside, I will take 3rd or 3rd and 4 gladly. That is almost automatic with #17, 33 and 85.

What we need to stop doing is get behind the sticks and continuously face 3rd and 7 or longer. That's what killed us vs the Saints.

Drj820 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 07:43

Yoop wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 06:31

TheSkeptic wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 03:01

What part of the word average do you not understand? He gets 2 yards on 1st down and 6 on 2nd down and 4 yards on 3rd down. That is 12 yards and a first down and averages to 4.0. And if he gets only 2.1 yards on 3rd down, that is still a 1st down. 3.4 yards average results in first downs.

In today's NFL, few if any teams are built to stop a power running game. Dlinemen are frequently smaller than Olinemen. Dillon is bigger than a lot of linebackers. No 180 pound CB or 200 pound safety wants any part of Dillon. Even if you are down 3 points after 3 quarters, you are facing a D where 1 CB is limping, another has a sore shoulder and cannot lift his arm above his head, one safety cannot remember his assignment because he got his bell rung and the other safety is in the tent replaced by a backup. Oh, and the pass rushers are tired. Now any QB can carve up that D.

heres what you seem to fail to grasp, a 3.4 yrd run will not inspire a coach to run again on 2nd down, unless it's to run out the clock, specially a coach with a QB like Rodgers, or on 3rd down with 3 yrds.

??

Why not?

It will if you really want to be a run team, wear down a defense, dominate time of possession, or give your own defense an extended breather.

3.4 yards a pop in the first half brings the safeties into the box, opens up the deep passing game for the second half as well as exhausts the D and becomes 8 yard carries later in the game.

cause the pop you are talking about is not guaranteed, what we've seen is that we often don't duplicate that 3.4 yrd first down run, and when we don't we are left with a 3rd and long and have to pass.

a typical season has just a couple teams that can successfully pound the rock snap after snap, these teams feature a great OL and a stable of very good RB's, even they often fail to put together flawless drives that produce enough points to win the game even with a excellent defense, thats why most offensive snaps are passes, if that weren't the case you wouldn't see so many defenses using a two high shell.
I agree that I'd like to run enough to freeze the pass rush and draw down the safety's, just saying though that often thats not possible, what we did with the up tempo short passes last week accomplishes the same thing, it moves the chains, and those safety's have to creep down to support that just as if we had run the ball.

the idea that ya have to run the ball to win TOP has been dis proven for ages, Bill Walsh designed passing schemes back in the 80's, those schemes have been honed to perfection countless times ever since, hell NE won 6 SB's doing the short dinky, dunky, Favre did it as well in Holmgrens schemes with high % short passing.

McCarthys point was valid, ya run to set up the pass, to bad he didn't live by that and actually run the ball, I think under MLF we have a much better balance, and a 55 to 45% pass to run ratio seems perfect to me

Well so much of it is QB decision at the line based on what the D is showing.

Important to stick with it and occasionally even run against heavy fronts.

But there could be an additional 10 runs per game called that Aaron (or other QBs) might check out of based on D alignments.

So perhaps isn't such an obvious answer. Such as the Dallas v Philly game where Philly only handed the ball off 3 times last Monday, I wonder how much Hurts checked out of at the line. Maybe not of his own selfishness/wrongdoing, but how it was schemed up during the week if a safety is up or something. But I highly doubt there was simply 3 runs called the whole game.

Yoop wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:21

these teams feature a great OL and a stable of very good RB's

hmmm...if only I could think of a team with a great OL and a stable of very good RBs..oh ya, the packers!

Again, I am not saying we should never pass. I am saying patient coaches that wanted to run the ball would absolutely keep running the ball if their back was getting over 3.4 yards a carry. I was also saying Dillon is pretty much automatic to be able to get that yardage, and I think he is good because he will get that yardage. The idea that a coach isnt happy with running the ball on first and getting into 2nd and 6 is crazy!

Drj820 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:29

Yoop wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:21

these teams feature a great OL and a stable of very good RB's

hmmm...if only I could think of a team with a great OL and a stable of very good RBs..oh ya, the packers!

Again, I am not saying we should never pass. I am saying patient coaches that wanted to run the ball would absolutely keep running the ball if their back was getting over 3.4 yards a carry. I was also saying Dillon is pretty much automatic to be able to get that yardage, and I think he is good because he will get that yardage. The idea that a coach isnt happy with running the ball on first and getting into 2nd and 6 is crazy!

you should actually check me out, I might be wrong, but I'll stick to what I've said, most coaches will abandon the run if all they get on first down is 3,4 yrds, for one thing they will soon be playing catch up ball and will have to pass to catch up, and the Likelyhood of getting more then 3.4 yrds on 2nd down I'am guessing is even harder then that first down run.

and it's not been automatic that Dillon gets 3.4 yrds per run, in fact as a team where averaging less the 4 yrds, we need to improve our run blocking, period, heck Jones is only getting 3.7 right now, no coach is patient enough to stick with production like that cause it wont win games.

BF004 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:29

Important to stick with it and occasionally even run against heavy fronts.

I do not agree with this. It's important to make good decisions on each play independent of what has happened prior. Most teams, the Packers included, also use certain elements of the passing game as an extension of the running game, so I am not going to get too caught up in how many carries our RB's are getting if Davante and others are catching screens and check-with-me's.

Maybe you specifically mean for LaFleur to stick with it, but I don't want Rodgers staying in bad calls just to say we tried to run.

Yoop wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:40

and it's not been automatic that Dillon gets 3.4 yrds per run, in fact as a team where averaging less the 4 yrds, we need to improve our run blocking, period, heck Jones is only getting 3.7 right now, no coach is patient enough to stick with production like that cause it wont win games.

Any offensive stat with one third of it coming from the Saints game will look like sh*t and can be used as to "why we shouldn't do something" when arguing a point.

Our run game has been very good and winning football in weeks 2 and 3.

NCF wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:42

BF004 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:29

Important to stick with it and occasionally even run against heavy fronts.

I do not agree with this. It's important to make good decisions on each play independent of what has happened prior. Most teams, the Packers included, also use certain elements of the passing game as an extension of the running game, so I am not going to get too caught up in how many carries our RB's are getting if Davante and others are catching screens and check-with-me's.

Maybe you specifically mean for LaFleur to stick with it, but I don't want Rodgers staying in bad calls just to say we tried to run.

I do, you don't want to be predictable, like what happened to Philly.

I mean I would include the quick hitches to the WR's as basically a run. At least you aren't checking out of the play and giving the OL the look of runblocking, OL like to run block. Good way to keep the LB's and safeties a bit hesitant at times too on committing to the run.

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:46

Our run game has been very good and winning football in weeks 2 and 3.

It's been sufficient, but I wouldn't say very good. I think the backs are still feeling out the OL and LaFleur/Rodgers are still trying to feel their way through a Jones/Dillon balance that makes sense. We have been way too Jones-heavy in these first few weeks, IMO. Also, still so series-by-series focused. I would like to see more substitution and back-and-forth between the two. Dillon should be heavy between the 20's and Jones should be RZ, 3rd-down, and whatever else the game dictates, but I do think we need more balance between the two.

NCF wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:42

BF004 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:29

Important to stick with it and occasionally even run against heavy fronts.

I do not agree with this. It's important to make good decisions on each play independent of what has happened prior. Most teams, the Packers included, also use certain elements of the passing game as an extension of the running game, so I am not going to get too caught up in how many carries our RB's are getting if Davante and others are catching screens and check-with-me's.

Maybe you specifically mean for LaFleur to stick with it, but I don't want Rodgers staying in bad calls just to say we tried to run.

i think its good to run into a brick wall a time or two just so the defense knows they cant just show a look, and all of a sudden they no longer have to worry about you running the ball. It keeps defenses honest.

Plus I like being smart, but I also like dictating terms. If we want to slam the ball down your throat today, we dont care what formation you are in until you prove you can stop it. Then, if you stop it and stay in that 8 man box...get ready for playaction over the top.

Runs that do nothing set up play action and more of the offense even if the run isnt working great. I like those plays.

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:46

Yoop wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:40

and it's not been automatic that Dillon gets 3.4 yrds per run, in fact as a team where averaging less the 4 yrds, we need to improve our run blocking, period, heck Jones is only getting 3.7 right now, no coach is patient enough to stick with production like that cause it wont win games.

Any offensive stat with one third of it coming from the Saints game will look like sh*t and can be used as to "why we shouldn't do something" when arguing a point.

Our run game has been very good and winning football in weeks 2 and 3.

I disagree, in all 3 games our running attack was not sustainable, just because we had several good runs does not equate to winning games, as I tried to explain, Dillon's average was boosted with just a couple 6 or 8 yrd runs, and to a larger extent the same with Jones, I garnered this with simple eye observation, and the eye don't lie

Drj820 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:52

NCF wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:42

BF004 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:29

Important to stick with it and occasionally even run against heavy fronts.

I do not agree with this. It's important to make good decisions on each play independent of what has happened prior. Most teams, the Packers included, also use certain elements of the passing game as an extension of the running game, so I am not going to get too caught up in how many carries our RB's are getting if Davante and others are catching screens and check-with-me's.

Maybe you specifically mean for LaFleur to stick with it, but I don't want Rodgers staying in bad calls just to say we tried to run.

i think its good to run into a brick wall a time or two just so the defense knows they cant just show a look, and all of a sudden they no longer have to worry about you running the ball. It keeps defenses honest.

Plus I like being smart, but I also like dictating terms. If we want to slam the ball down your throat today, we dont care what formation you are in until you prove you can stop it. Then, if you stop it and stay in that 8 man box...get ready for playaction over the top.

Runs that do nothing set up play action and more of the offense even if the run isnt working great. I like those plays.

I just, personally, don't think it works that way. Running into a brick wall doesn't open up play action, running effectively opens up play action. Maybe some teams can muster a somewhat effective running game against those looks, but our OL is not built for that.

Look at the contrast between the New Orleans game and San Francisco. Very heavy PA against New Orleans and virtually non-existent against San Francisco. If we want to get back to that heavy PA scheme that we ran last year so effectively, we need to get more out of the running game... not just volume, but effectiveness.

Drj820 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:52

NCF wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:42

BF004 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:29

Important to stick with it and occasionally even run against heavy fronts.

I do not agree with this. It's important to make good decisions on each play independent of what has happened prior. Most teams, the Packers included, also use certain elements of the passing game as an extension of the running game, so I am not going to get too caught up in how many carries our RB's are getting if Davante and others are catching screens and check-with-me's.

Maybe you specifically mean for LaFleur to stick with it, but I don't want Rodgers staying in bad calls just to say we tried to run.

i think its good to run into a brick wall a time or two just so the defense knows they cant just show a look, and all of a sudden they no longer have to worry about you running the ball. It keeps defenses honest.

Plus I like being smart, but I also like dictating terms. If we want to slam the ball down your throat today, we dont care what formation you are in until you prove you can stop it. Then, if you stop it and stay in that 8 man box...get ready for playaction over the top.

Runs that do nothing set up play action and more of the offense even if the run isnt working great. I like those plays.

I thin we'd all agree with this, in fact this is what we've seen a lot of, ya have to run even for no gain just to keep the defense from play all these variation of coverages designed to stop the pass, but ya can't stick with the run when it isn't setting up favorable down and distance, the object of the game is to score points, not prove that you can run the ball

Yoop wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:56

go pak go wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:46

Yoop wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:40

and it's not been automatic that Dillon gets 3.4 yrds per run, in fact as a team where averaging less the 4 yrds, we need to improve our run blocking, period, heck Jones is only getting 3.7 right now, no coach is patient enough to stick with production like that cause it wont win games.

Any offensive stat with one third of it coming from the Saints game will look like sh*t and can be used as to "why we shouldn't do something" when arguing a point.

Our run game has been very good and winning football in weeks 2 and 3.

I disagree, in all 3 games our running attack was not sustainable, just because we had several good runs does not equate to winning games, as I tried to explain, Dillon's average was boosted with just a couple 6 or 8 yrd runs, and to a larger extent the same with Jones, I garnered this with simple eye observation, and the eye don't lie

When you talk about runs "skewing" the average ypc stat, you are talking about 20+ runs. You are not talking about 6 and 8 yard runs.

NCF wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 09:00

Drj820 wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:52

NCF wrote: ↑

01 Oct 2021 08:42

I do not agree with this. It's important to make good decisions on each play independent of what has happened prior. Most teams, the Packers included, also use certain elements of the passing game as an extension of the running game, so I am not going to get too caught up in how many carries our RB's are getting if Davante and others are catching screens and check-with-me's.

Maybe you specifically mean for LaFleur to stick with it, but I don't want Rodgers staying in bad calls just to say we tried to run.

i think its good to run into a brick wall a time or two just so the defense knows they cant just show a look, and all of a sudden they no longer have to worry about you running the ball. It keeps defenses honest.

Plus I like being smart, but I also like dictating terms. If we want to slam the ball down your throat today, we dont care what formation you are in until you prove you can stop it. Then, if you stop it and stay in that 8 man box...get ready for playaction over the top.

Runs that do nothing set up play action and more of the offense even if the run isnt working great. I like those plays.

I just, personally, don't think it works that way. Running into a brick wall doesn't open up play action, running effectively opens up play action. Maybe some teams can muster a somewhat effective running game against those looks, but our OL is not built for that.

Look at the contrast between the New Orleans game and San Francisco. Very heavy PA against New Orleans and virtually non-existent against San Francisco. If we want to get back to that heavy PA scheme that we ran last year so effectively, we need to get more out of the running game... not just volume, but effectiveness.

I was so impressed with the SF game plan. The run game did enough against a very good front. A very good front 7. I can't remember a game where our running backs produced that much against a front 7 with an imposing ILB. SF has the style of defenses that keep Jones under 40 yards and that didn't happen.

But back to my point, I was very happy we didn't do heavy PA. We finally adjusted and most importantly Rodgers adjusted. We have noticed for years and years his hesitancy to throw the ball quick and that was not the case last Sunday. I don't expect that to be something every week, but I loved that we did it there and I do hope we sprinkle it in more and more.

But yes. Right now defenses are appearing to play us "more afraid" by getting beat through the air than through the ground. It's a long season. We may see an evolution with that. The biggest thing as you stated is don't play into the defense's hands. If they are playing a light box...run it. If they are playing a heavy box, kill em with MVS and Adams in space and over the top.

We have the flexibility in personnel that any offense dreams of. We can literally beat you in any way.