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Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 10:29
by Yoop
Labrev wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 09:45
Bucky Brooks has us taking Kincaid at 13 -.-
I do like Kincaid, but like....... stahp.
as Yoho said, Kincaid is a receiver first, but with TE capability, again I've seen Grades for him as a blocker that exceeds Laporta, and some draft guru's claim there is a chance that Laporta goes off late round one, and before WAshington, how accurate that info is is anyones guess.
I brought that list of the most productive TE's and it shows that most TE's take most of there rookie contract to be good blocking TE's, and the best last year where at the end of second contracts, my point is all needed to become better blockers, and teams know from the outset blocking will take a few years, so they don't draft TE's high for that reason unless they have established receiving skills, and Kincaid has that in spades, more so then Meyers, which makes me think he'll go before him.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 10:41
by BF004
Yoop wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 10:20
BF004 wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 09:28
BF004 wrote: ↑24 Apr 2023 16:07
Makes me very happy too, so much less likely we'll take a TE at 13 I feel like than 15.
the difference between those two slots wont make a difference unless someone nabs Guty's targeted player sooner, certainly wont mean we'll pass on a TE because it's two slots early, if a player is worth taking at 15 he's just as worthy 2 slots sooner imo.
Just feel like if we are locked into a TE, its already hard enough to justify 15 for him, so just sit there and take him. We could have asked for additional draft capital elsewhere. Moving up to 13 tells me that likely isn't in the cards then.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 11:04
by Labrev
Yoop wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 10:29
Labrev wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 09:45
Bucky Brooks has us taking Kincaid at 13 -.-
I do like Kincaid, but like....... stahp.
as Yoho said, Kincaid is a receiver first, but with TE capability, again I've seen Grades for him as a blocker that exceeds Laporta, and some draft guru's claim there is a chance that Laporta goes off late round one, and before WAshington, how accurate that info is is anyones guess.
I brought that list of the most productive TE's and it shows that most TE's take most of there rookie contract to be good blocking TE's, and the best last year where at the end of second contracts, my point is all needed to become better blockers, and teams know from the outset blocking will take a few years, so they don't draft TE's high for that reason unless they have established receiving skills, and Kincaid has that in spades, more so then Meyers, which makes me think he'll go before him.
There is a draft strategy called "Value in 2" where, if a position group is deep enough that you can get a really good one in Round 2, you pass on that position in Round 1.
I think Kincaid's value over the other TEs is he's so good as a receiver right now (not just in athletic ability but also being very refined technically) that you get a mismatch weapon from Day 1 for whom you can create subpackages on O while he works to become a more well-rounded TE. That's worth a 1st to me (also helps offset his age to me) and why I'd take him over a LaPorta or Musgrave.
But, does he have any truly special traits which will
always keep him above those guys who will go Round 2? I do not see that, and I kind of need that to draft a guy in the top half of Round 1. Kincaid in the 20s, I can do, but not higher... JMO.
Musgrave as with most TEs will probably be a non-factor for 2-3 years, which is why I don't love the idea of drafting him (that's 50-75% of his cheap rookie contract down the drain), but he has the athletic talent to be a *way* better TE than Kincaid whenever it clicks for him.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 11:06
by Madcity_matt
I don't really want a first round TE anyways, unless we move back from 13 (felt the same at 15) OR pick at 13 and use the 2 2's to move up to the back of the first if there's a guy they really like above and beyond. Much prefer taking a pair of TE in rounds 2-5.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 11:50
by YoHoChecko
Labrev wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 11:04
There is a draft strategy called "Value in 2" where, if a position group is deep enough that you can get a really good one in Round 2, you pass on that position in Round 1.
I think Kincaid's value over the other TEs is he's so good as a receiver right now (not just in athletic ability but also being very refined technically) that you get a mismatch weapon from Day 1 for whom you can create subpackages on O while he works to become a more well-rounded TE. That's worth a 1st to me (also helps offset his age to me) and why I'd take him over a LaPorta or Musgrave.
But, does he have any truly special traits which will always keep him above those guys who will go Round 2? I do not see that, and I kind of need that to draft a guy in the top half of Round 1. Kincaid in the 20s, I can do, but not higher... JMO.
Musgrave as with most TEs will probably be a non-factor for 2-3 years, which is why I don't love the idea of drafting him (that's 50-75% of his cheap rookie contract down the drain), but he has the athletic talent to be a *way* better TE than Kincaid whenever it clicks for him.
You literally outlined the strategy that applies MOST to the TE position of any position except say RB... and applies MOST to the TE cadre of prospects this year as it has/would in almost any year given the strength of the position.
And then madly, insanely, disappointingly recommended against it in this instance... for a guy who you admittedly do not see as "special."
What a roller coaster of a post
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 13:10
by Labrev
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 11:50
Labrev wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 11:04
There is a draft strategy called "Value in 2" where, if a position group is deep enough that you can get a really good one in Round 2, you pass on that position in Round 1.
I think Kincaid's value over the other TEs is he's so good as a receiver right now (not just in athletic ability but also being very refined technically) that you get a mismatch weapon from Day 1 for whom you can create subpackages on O while he works to become a more well-rounded TE. That's worth a 1st to me (also helps offset his age to me) and why I'd take him over a LaPorta or Musgrave.
But, does he have any truly special traits which will always keep him above those guys who will go Round 2? I do not see that, and I kind of need that to draft a guy in the top half of Round 1. Kincaid in the 20s, I can do, but not higher... JMO.
Musgrave as with most TEs will probably be a non-factor for 2-3 years, which is why I don't love the idea of drafting him (that's 50-75% of his cheap rookie contract down the drain), but he has the athletic talent to be a *way* better TE than Kincaid whenever it clicks for him.
You literally outlined the strategy that applies MOST to the TE position of any position except say RB... and applies MOST to the TE cadre of prospects this year as it has/would in almost any year given the strength of the position.
And then madly, insanely, disappointingly recommended against it in this instance... for a guy who you admittedly do not see as "special."
What a roller coaster of a post
I think it's pretty straightforward, although I think you may be reading my post with
your estimation of the players rather than mine (I don't simply have Kincaid ahead of LaPorta, as I'm not sure you do, I have him a tier above): I.E. he offers enough additional value than the Round 2 guys to justify taking him higher, but the gap is not so drastic as to justify taking him A LOT higher (hence, 20s, but not Teens).
That line of thinking seems pretty coherent to me -?
I also think that when you're talking about 1st Round picks, that picks 1-15 are *very* different than 16-32. By ~24 you're 75% of the way through Round 1 and are drafting fringe Round 1-2 guys anyway, it's basically a Round 2 pick in my head. So when I say I'd pick Kincaid in the 20s, it's practically like saying "wait 'til Round 2."
Also, I don't subscribe to the truism you alluded to about positions like TE, RB, et. al. being inherently less worth 1sts. To me, that kind of talk is and always has been analysis devoid of meaningfulness.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 13:32
by paco
Will Levis odds to go #1 are rising. As high as +300 now. Young's odds have gone from -2000 to -550. Apparently all because of a reddit post where someone said Levis is telling friends and family he's going to Carolina.
I love the draft.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 14:07
by British
From a cap management perspective there's an argument that featuring a lot of receiving TEs in your offence is quite smart due to the explosion in cost of WRs.
This off-season the franchise tag for TE was cheaper than some middling slot receivers got in free agency. That's why Evan Engram hasn't signed his tag yet. He's pissed. Lots of other free agent TEs had some pretty bargain priced deals.
Developing an offence that uses lots of big slot TEs rather than cap-busting WRs could be the way to go.
That cost though is why taking a WR in the 1st and getting 5 years on a rookie deal makes a lot of sense.
JSN or an OT at 13 feels like a bit of a tier break. The TE class is deep so would be happy if they doubled up there after round 1.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 14:15
by Yoop
YoHoChecko wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 11:50
Labrev wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 11:04
There is a draft strategy called "Value in 2" where, if a position group is deep enough that you can get a really good one in Round 2, you pass on that position in Round 1.
I think Kincaid's value over the other TEs is he's so good as a receiver right now (not just in athletic ability but also being very refined technically) that you get a mismatch weapon from Day 1 for whom you can create subpackages on O while he works to become a more well-rounded TE. That's worth a 1st to me (also helps offset his age to me) and why I'd take him over a LaPorta or Musgrave.
But, does he have any truly special traits which will always keep him above those guys who will go Round 2? I do not see that, and I kind of need that to draft a guy in the top half of Round 1. Kincaid in the 20s, I can do, but not higher... JMO.
Musgrave as with most TEs will probably be a non-factor for 2-3 years, which is why I don't love the idea of drafting him (that's 50-75% of his cheap rookie contract down the drain), but he has the athletic talent to be a *way* better TE than Kincaid whenever it clicks for him.
You literally outlined the strategy that applies MOST to the TE position of any position except say RB... and applies MOST to the TE cadre of prospects this year as it has/would in almost any year given the strength of the position.
And then madly, insanely, disappointingly recommended against it in this instance... for a guy who you admittedly do not see as "special."
What a roller coaster of a post
why do you say he is a middling slot receiver, or slow? he sure doesn't look slow in any of the vids I've seen, in fact he looks dominating, walls off defensive backs and hand plucks passes right out of the hands of lbers.
you know how I look at this stuff, production is my main concern, to me in that sense he is a plug and play prospect.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 14:16
by BF004
Seen this a few places, might all be the same source, but Carter no to Seahags, Eagles looking at trading up as high as 6 for him.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 15:00
by BF004
Why isn't Isiah Foskey a more heralded prospect?
Amazing production for a career, on the moderate younger side, only 22 as a RJr. Elite ahleticsm.
Kind of checks all the boxes why isn't he a top 20 guy?
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 15:17
by paco
BF004 wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 15:00
Why isn't Isiah Foskey a more heralded prospect?
Amazing production for a career, on the moderate younger side, only 22 as a RJr. Elite ahleticsm.
Kind of checks all the boxes why isn't he a top 20 guy?
He's getting some talk there from what I've seen, but not widespread. I'm expecting him to go in the 1st.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 15:17
by go pak go
BF004 wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 15:00
Why isn't Isiah Foskey a more heralded prospect?
Amazing production for a career, on the moderate younger side, only 22 as a RJr. Elite ahleticsm.
Kind of checks all the boxes why isn't he a top 20 guy?
Yeah the more I try to learn the Industrial Draft Complex, the more I don't understand it. I felt like Foskey was a top 5 Edge guy in January and has fallen a lot. Why is Van Ness "a likely Packer target at 15" and the other isn't? Especially when the guy who couldn't even start at Iowa is slated higher than the guy who actually produced at Notre Dame
Is the 3 cone and shuttle just really hurting Foskey?
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Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 15:21
by paco
Wanted to do a mock where I sat at 13 and grabbed JSN. Did a few trades back. Got rid of Savage in a trade up to get Benton. Missed out on OT early, but think I covered things fairly well.
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Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 15:25
by BF004
Really kind of like how these 3 could all fit together in the same room at the top.
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Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 15:28
by Labrev
JSN and Skoronski come up way more often in mock sims now at 13 than they did at 15!
2010 draft was awesome, Bryan Bulaga and Dez Bryant were my favorite prospects and both were on the board at our pick. Let's get a repeat!
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 16:16
by YoHoChecko
BF004 wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 15:00
Why isn't Isiah Foskey a more heralded prospect?
Amazing production for a career, on the moderate younger side, only 22 as a RJr. Elite ahleticsm.
Kind of checks all the boxes why isn't he a top 20 guy?
Maybe he is.
We’ll find out Thursday
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 17:03
by Chilli
BF004 wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 15:00
Why isn't Isiah Foskey a more heralded prospect?
Amazing production for a career, on the moderate younger side, only 22 as a RJr. Elite ahleticsm.
Kind of checks all the boxes why isn't he a top 20 guy?
I was wondering the same. I got into his highlights yesterday and liked what I saw. Much better than Van Ness's highlights. No idea why there's next to no chatter about him going in the 1st round.
Same argument could be made for Tuli Tuipulotu, great tape, only 20 and a half. Talented young players tend to get drafted earlier than talented older players.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 17:05
by BF004
Chilli wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 17:03
BF004 wrote: ↑25 Apr 2023 15:00
Why isn't Isiah Foskey a more heralded prospect?
Amazing production for a career, on the moderate younger side, only 22 as a RJr. Elite ahleticsm.
Kind of checks all the boxes why isn't he a top 20 guy?
I was wondering the same. I got into his highlights yesterday and liked what I saw. Much better than Van Ness's highlights. No idea why there's next to no chatter about him going in the 1st round.
Same argument could be made for Tuli Tuipulotu, great tape, only 20 and a half. Talented young players tend to get drafted earlier than talented older players.
Re: 2023 NFL Draft Discussion
Posted: 25 Apr 2023 17:33
by lupedafiasco
Will Levi’s could be trolling but he has told friends and family he’s the first pick.