2022 Playoff Picture

[BF004]

I can't get the seahens to beat us

image.png (160.51 KiB) Viewed 419 times

[BF004]

image.png (94.17 KiB) Viewed 417 times

[Pckfn23]

This whole discussion is based on the Seahawks. BF said we have the tiebreaker over Seattle at 9-8 as we have the Strength of Schedule on our side.

Strength of Victory I believe I said.

I couldn't get it to flip to GB even if I had NE, CHI, DET, MIA, MIN, LA, and DAL winning out, other than when they play each other or us.

[Pckfn23]

image.png (183.52 KiB) Viewed 414 times

[BF004]

What will be a little interesting is, that NY and Seattle are both gunna play twice and Washington once, before we play again.

Philly @ NYG
CAR @ Seattle

NYG @ Washington
SF @ Seattle

[BF004]

image.png

You might be screwing it up with a 3 way tie with Detroit.

[Pckfn23]

image.png

You might be screwing it up with a 3 way tie with Detroit.

I changed it up to match yours:

image.png (190.03 KiB) Viewed 406 times

[Pckfn23]

image.png (16.26 KiB) Viewed 403 times

image.png (21.37 KiB) Viewed 400 times

[mention]BF004[/mention] Both the Falcons and Rams are missing games in your scenario at the top. What happens if you pick winners/losers there?

[BF004]

Two teams
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

1, no

2, looking at non-conferences, we are 1-3 with 1 to play, So 2-3 assumption, Seattle is 2-1 with games against KC and NYJ yet. If they win either, and finish 9-8, we'll have a better conference record then.

3. Common Games, Seattle: Bucs, Detroit, Giants, Rams, Rams, NYJ, they are currently 3-1 with 2 to play, we are 1-3 with 2 to play.

If the Seattle loses to the Rams and Jets, and we obviously win out, we'll tie here too.

[go pak go]

Two teams
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

1, no

2, looking at non-conferences, we are 1-3 with 1 to play, So 2-3 assumption, Seattle is 2-1 with games against KC and NYJ yet. If they win either, and finish 9-8, we'll have a better conference record then.

Right. But if the Hawks win against either the Chiefs or Jets, then they would need to be upset by a team like the Rams or Panthers.

So my theory of "just have no upsets" is down the drain. We will need at least one upset against NYG, WASH or SEA to pull this off.

[Drj820]

i wouldnt get your hopes up fellas

[NCF]

i wouldnt get your hopes up fellas

Definitely not, but it is still interesting to understand the scenarios. The teams that need to lose have been pretty good at it in recent history, so to expect them to automatically punch their ticket isn't necessarily the most rational, either.

[go pak go]

i wouldnt get your hopes up fellas

Oh I am very much in the camp of thinking it's better for us to lose in the long run.

But it's still fun conversation nonetheless.

[Pckfn23]

I don't see any hope being gotten up. Just running through the scenarios. It looks like our options are Seattle, Washington or New York only winning 1. A tall order.

[BF004]

Amazing contribution

[APB]

So are we postponing the "play all the young guys and bench Rodgers" chorus from last week?

Asking for a friend...


Relax, I'm just jerking some chains here

[go pak go]

So are we postponing the "play all the young guys and bench Rodgers" chorus from last week?

Asking for a friend...


Relax, I'm just jerking some chains here

I think our best chance in January / February is still based on the chorus message you have in your quotes regardless.

I'm making it tiny because I know my opinion is very unpopular for some. But it's my opinion and I am entitled to it.

[Pckfn23]

Well, we officially eliminated the Bears yesterday. Texans the only other team officially eliminated. 538 has the Packers at a 4% change. Only Jaguars, Colts, Cardinals, and Rams with worse chances.

[Pckfn23]

[mention]BF004[/mention] [mention]go pak go[/mention] I figured it out. Seattle has to lose two of the Rams, Panthers, 49ers and drop one of the Jets and Chiefs. If they win 2 against the Rams, Panthers, 49ers, they are in over us.

[go pak go]

@BF004 @go pak go I figured it out. Seattle has to lose two of the Rams, Panthers, 49ers and drop one of the Jets and Chiefs. If they win 2 against the Rams, Panthers, 49ers, they are in over us.

Yup. It looks like we need to rely on Conference record. If we tie on Conference record, then SEA gets the tiebreaker.

This lowers our chances since it is more conceivable for the Hawks to lose to both AFC opponents than one of the Rams or Panthers.