Aaron Jones - prepping to get paid

[NCF]

Easy decision, Tag him, AR has a small window...

Welcome back, [mention]JKB[/mention]!!

[BF004]

Easy decision, Tag him, AR has a small window...

Glad you found your way over here!!


I guess I’m thinking our window is much much bigger than most. And frankly I’m thinking it doesn’t close.

4-6 more years of Aaron, then ideally a few years of a qb on a rookie contract (please don’t draft a qb till 2023 at the earliest).

QB isn’t your whole team, we should know that better than anybody by now. You need either a good QB and functioning O, or functioning QB and good O, and a great D to win. Our D looks on the upward trajectory. As long as that is competitive, window isn’t closing.


Long story short, not making short sighted moves for the next 1-3 years to jeopardize 4-8 years down the roads

[YoHoChecko]

So let's talk about replace-ability.

Reminder: Aaron Jones was a fifth round draft pick. Let's compare measurables and stats from their best college season with some guys in this draft who will be Day Three picks, like Jones.


Eno Benjamin just really jumped onto my radar while watching Brandon Ayiuk's tape. He's my favorite of this bunch, and he really has the looks of someone who could replicate Jones' success in the NFL.

[NCF]

So let's talk about replace-ability.

Reminder: Aaron Jones was a fifth round draft pick.

Yes, let's. Let's also remember life with Brandon Jackson, James Starks, Cedric Benson, & Ty Montgomery. RB's are replaceable until you replace them with someone you also need to replace.

Even last year, how evident was it when Jamaal Williams replaced Jones in the line up? Its a whole dimension of the offense that disappears instantly.

Replacing a guy with traits is not enough. This idea that you can find these guys anywhere is also not true or Aaron Jones wouldn't be sitting there in the 5th-round. The truth is, if you want to bank on replace-ability, you had better be prepared to endure a line up of turds before you find the right guy again. They're out there, but there is no magic formula for finding them.

[YoHoChecko]

So let's talk about replace-ability.

Reminder: Aaron Jones was a fifth round draft pick.

Yes, let's. Let's also remember life with Brandon Jackson, James Starks, Cedric Benson, & Ty Montgomery. RB's are replaceable until you replace them with someone you also need to replace.

Even last year, how evident was it when Jamaal Williams replaced Jones in the line up? Its a whole dimension of the offense that disappears instantly.

Replacing a guy with traits is not enough. This idea that you can find these guys anywhere is also not true or Aaron Jones wouldn't be sitting there in the 5th-round. The truth is, if you want to bank on replace-ability, you had better be prepared to endure a line up of turds before you find the right guy again. They're out there, but there is no magic formula for finding them.

Sure. Which is why I want to draft a back THIS year to evaluate that back before making a decision on Jones.

And it's not just traits, that's why I kept production in the evaluation. And you may notice that it was the tape that I mentioned as putting Benjamin on my radar.

And yes, things dropped off with Jamaal Williams in the lineup because he doesn't have explosive traits; that's why in all of my mocks and evaluations, I want to add a more explosive back to the mix; and it's why I'm down on backs in this draft like Josh Kelley and Zach Moss and James Robinson (all safe but not explosive). That's why I want a gadget player like Antonio Gibson, Lynn Bowden, Joe Reed, and am glad that Tyler Ervin is back... because I think we need guys who can come in and spell the starting RB without completely sapping the explosive element of the team.

I don't want to pay an oft-knicked up RB--or any RB really--more than $10M a year, ever. I've made that clear for years. But I'm not saying let's go in blind. I'm proposing that we prepare for Jones' potential departure, to maintain leverage and the ability to walk away if Jones' price goes to high. And I'm proposing we address that preparation with multiple picks and players. And I'm looking for guys who compare and have the potential to make that replacement work smoothly.

[NCF]

I'm proposing that we prepare for Jones' potential departure, to maintain leverage and the ability to walk away if Jones' price goes to high. And I'm proposing we address that preparation with multiple picks and players. And I'm looking for guys who compare and have the potential to make that replacement work smoothly.

I can get on board with that. I just think its a more difficult proposition than you make it seem. For as replaceable as RB's may seem, there are not 32 "good" ones in the NFL today.

[TheSkeptic]

I'm proposing that we prepare for Jones' potential departure, to maintain leverage and the ability to walk away if Jones' price goes to high. And I'm proposing we address that preparation with multiple picks and players. And I'm looking for guys who compare and have the potential to make that replacement work smoothly.

I can get on board with that. I just think its a more difficult proposition than you make it seem. For as replaceable as RB's may seem, there are not 32 "good" ones in the NFL today.

The team has needs. There is a 2 year window, at best, when the team has Rodgers before he falls off a cliff. After that you trade him for a conditional 6th rounder and to get rid of his cap. In the meantime, you franchise Jones and then let him go 2 years from now for a comp pick. In the 2022/3 season you start Boyle and he is either decent or we suffer through a 1-15 season and use the 1st pick on a QB. 2 year window

[Yoop]

Easy decision, Tag him, AR has a small window...

Glad you found your way over here!!


I guess I’m thinking our window is much much bigger than most. And frankly I’m thinking it doesn’t close.

4-6 more years of Aaron, then ideally a few years of a qb on a rookie contract (please don’t draft a qb till 2023 at the earliest).

QB isn’t your whole team, we should know that better than anybody by now. You need either a good QB and functioning O, or functioning QB and good O, and a great D to win. Our D looks on the upward trajectory. As long as that is competitive, window isn’t closing.


Long story short, not making short sighted moves for the next 1-3 years to jeopardize 4-8 years down the roads

wow, you really think Rodgers has 4 to 6 years? or that we havn't ridden his coat tails to win, even last year with the explosion Jones it was still Rodgers that made some excellent throws to him, I'd like to be as optimistic as you about our future, but it's just not realistic.
the bigger issue is that it is impossible to have a great D year after year, as we know (or should) that one weak position on defense is one to many, 2. we are talking about dumping 1/3 rd of our offense after this season with Jones, so this having a good O comes with that qualifier, a lot depends on Jones replacement, and we've been terrible at replacing RB's over the last couple decades.

there is a window with any aging QB, sure scheme and supporting cast can help to extend it, but I expect we'll draft his replacment within the next 2 drafts, I think/expect 3 more solid years from Rodgers, and thats if Lafluer is able to use more up tempo pass schemes to save Rodgers from taking a beating, or he may not last that long,

[BF004]

“I feel confident right now. I’m going to be 40 when the deal ends. I feel like I can keep going after that the way things have been going.”

Rodgers’ contract runs through the 2023 season, during which he’ll turn 40.

Seeing what Brady and Brees have been doing, late career success with Favre and Peyton.

I don't see why Aaron can't. We certainly paid him like we expect him to still be playing at a high level in 2023.

He does need to change up his game a bit, with the freelancing, extending plays and will likely see some arm strength drop off. But his most important trait has always been cerebral.

I guess I don't get this 2 year window talk at all, seems foolish to me. As does trade Aaron for a 6th, start Tim Boyle for a year so we can go 1-15.

[Drj820]

im all for trying to hit gold again late in the draft, but we have too many needs to try early. And the chances late in the draft are much better to get a dexter williams than an aaron jones. I understand the "dont pay a rb" crowd. History certainly validates their argument alot. But it would be a massive mistake just to assume Jones is replaceable and any only rb drafted in the 4th round could do what he is capable of.

Im probably one of the biggest jamaal williams defenders on this board. I love the guy, but we have all seen the splits on what the offense does when he is in the game vs when Jones is in the game...take Jones off the entire team and the offense could easily look more like it does when Jamaal is in there all the time. And thats a massive difference, a difference worth paying a price to not have to live with.

[NCF]

I'm surprised this is such a divisive topic. To clarify my position, I am...

1.) In favor of an extension now, if it saves us in total costs.
2.) Against an extension, of any kind, that pays Jones a top of the market deal.
3.) Against the use of the franchise tag in most scenarios.

If he is going to get a top of the market deal, avoid the distraction and fight of the franchise tag and take the comp pick and move on.

[TheSkeptic]

“I feel confident right now. I’m going to be 40 when the deal ends. I feel like I can keep going after that the way things have been going.”

Rodgers’ contract runs through the 2023 season, during which he’ll turn 40.

Seeing what Brady and Brees have been doing, late career success with Favre and Peyton.

I don't see why Aaron can't. We certainly paid him like we expect him to still be playing at a high level in 2023.

He does need to change up his game a bit, with the freelancing, extending plays and will likely see some arm strength drop off. But his most important trait has always been cerebral.

I guess I don't get this 2 year window talk at all, seems foolish to me. As does trade Aaron for a 6th, start Tim Boyle for a year so we can go 1-15.

Brady and Brees did not decline in their mid 30's as Rodgers has. He is not the perennial MVP candidate he was a few years ago.

[BF004]

He doesn't have to be, but I think he can still be.

The guy has never had accuracy issues his whole career, he is rapidly cycling through some new WR options (although some of the missed throws were just bad), but he is getting back from a throwing side collar bone injury and plant leg knee issue in back to back seasons. That is going to mess with your mechanics, don't care who you are. I think it is more likely than not his accuracy will improve going forward. He'll lose some mobility and arm strengh, but this guy is still as smart as they come pre and post snap.

Give him some weapons he can trust on O and he is putting up 30 TD's 5 INT's every year and likely on the short list for MVP candidates every year.

You paid him last year like he is a top 3-5 QB in the NFL. So believe in that and build around that. This is not the time to be drafting a QB in the first or trading Aaron for a 6th rounder and play for the 1st pick of the draft.

[Labrev]

I rather use that mid-round pick on an IOL to replace Turner or for that matter Linsley (will also be a FA soon) than to replace Jones.

We have had a better track record drafting OL than RBs (albeit, when under different mgmt and different coaches), and it'll make life easier for whichever RB is back there anyway. Keep that OL strong.

[TheSkeptic]

I rather use that mid-round pick on an IOL to replace Turner or for that matter Linsley (will also be a FA soon) than to replace Jones.

We have had a better track record drafting OL than RBs (albeit, when under different mgmt and different coaches), and it'll make life easier for whichever RB is back there anyway. Keep that OL strong.

Exactly. And an improved Oline makes an average RB look better than he is.

[YoHoChecko]

I rather use that mid-round pick on an IOL to replace Turner or for that matter Linsley (will also be a FA soon) than to replace Jones.

We have had a better track record drafting OL than RBs (albeit, when under different mgmt and different coaches), and it'll make life easier for whichever RB is back there anyway. Keep that OL strong.

You do realize we have a 4th, a 5th, and three 6th round picks, right? It's not either/or

[Pugger]

Easy decision, Tag him, AR has a small window...

Glad you found your way over here!!


I guess I’m thinking our window is much much bigger than most. And frankly I’m thinking it doesn’t close.

4-6 more years of Aaron, then ideally a few years of a qb on a rookie contract (please don’t draft a qb till 2023 at the earliest).

QB isn’t your whole team, we should know that better than anybody by now. You need either a good QB and functioning O, or functioning QB and good O, and a great D to win. Our D looks on the upward trajectory. As long as that is competitive, window isn’t closing.


Long story short, not making short sighted moves for the next 1-3 years to jeopardize 4-8 years down the roads

wow, you really think Rodgers has 4 to 6 years? or that we havn't ridden his coat tails to win, even last year with the explosion Jones it was still Rodgers that made some excellent throws to him, I'd like to be as optimistic as you about our future, but it's just not realistic.
the bigger issue is that it is impossible to have a great D year after year, as we know (or should) that one weak position on defense is one to many, 2. we are talking about dumping 1/3 rd of our offense after this season with Jones, so this having a good O comes with that qualifier, a lot depends on Jones replacement, and we've been terrible at replacing RB's over the last couple decades.

there is a window with any aging QB, sure scheme and supporting cast can help to extend it, but I expect we'll draft his replacment within the next 2 drafts, I think/expect 3 more solid years from Rodgers, and thats if Lafluer is able to use more up tempo pass schemes to save Rodgers from taking a beating, or he may not last that long,

Rodgers might have 4 more years. In my mind I'm optimistic that he will be better this year than last. He'll have one full calendar year in the new offense and hopefully Gute will bolster the WR corps. Even with all of our warts last year we still managed to get to the NCFCC game. That was a surprise to us all if we are honest.

[Pugger]

“I feel confident right now. I’m going to be 40 when the deal ends. I feel like I can keep going after that the way things have been going.”

Rodgers’ contract runs through the 2023 season, during which he’ll turn 40.

Seeing what Brady and Brees have been doing, late career success with Favre and Peyton.

I don't see why Aaron can't. We certainly paid him like we expect him to still be playing at a high level in 2023.

He does need to change up his game a bit, with the freelancing, extending plays and will likely see some arm strength drop off. But his most important trait has always been cerebral.

I guess I don't get this 2 year window talk at all, seems foolish to me. As does trade Aaron for a 6th, start Tim Boyle for a year so we can go 1-15.

Brady and Brees did not decline in their mid 30's as Rodgers has. He is not the perennial MVP candidate he was a few years ago.

There was a recent stretch - 2014 to 2016 - for Brees when he was around the age Rodgers is now when the Saints struggled but in the past 2 years with more talent around him he thrived.

[Yoop]

Glad you found your way over here!!


I guess I’m thinking our window is much much bigger than most. And frankly I’m thinking it doesn’t close.

4-6 more years of Aaron, then ideally a few years of a qb on a rookie contract (please don’t draft a qb till 2023 at the earliest).

QB isn’t your whole team, we should know that better than anybody by now. You need either a good QB and functioning O, or functioning QB and good O, and a great D to win. Our D looks on the upward trajectory. As long as that is competitive, window isn’t closing.


Long story short, not making short sighted moves for the next 1-3 years to jeopardize 4-8 years down the roads

wow, you really think Rodgers has 4 to 6 years? or that we havn't ridden his coat tails to win, even last year with the explosion Jones it was still Rodgers that made some excellent throws to him, I'd like to be as optimistic as you about our future, but it's just not realistic.
the bigger issue is that it is impossible to have a great D year after year, as we know (or should) that one weak position on defense is one to many, 2. we are talking about dumping 1/3 rd of our offense after this season with Jones, so this having a good O comes with that qualifier, a lot depends on Jones replacement, and we've been terrible at replacing RB's over the last couple decades.

there is a window with any aging QB, sure scheme and supporting cast can help to extend it, but I expect we'll draft his replacment within the next 2 drafts, I think/expect 3 more solid years from Rodgers, and thats if Lafluer is able to use more up tempo pass schemes to save Rodgers from taking a beating, or he may not last that long,

Rodgers might have 4 more years. In my mind I'm optimistic that he will be better this year than last. He'll have one full calendar year in the new offense and hopefully Gute will bolster the WR corps. Even with all of our warts last year we still managed to get to the NCFCC game. That was a surprise to us all if we are honest.

I predicted prior to the season that we would go 12-4, but I expected more contributions from MVS and EQB, instead we got it from A Jones, imo Rodgers problems are mostly receiver related, there lack of ability limits the plays we can use, so I agree, another year in the system will help everyone, and if we can nab a ready to play Rookie receiver this offense could be vastly improved.

[JKB]

Easy decision, Tag him, AR has a small window...

Glad you found your way over here!!


I guess I’m thinking our window is much much bigger than most. And frankly I’m thinking it doesn’t close.

4-6 more years of Aaron, then ideally a few years of a qb on a rookie contract (please don’t draft a qb till 2023 at the earliest).

QB isn’t your whole team, we should know that better than anybody by now. You need either a good QB and functioning O, or functioning QB and good O, and a great D to win. Our D looks on the upward trajectory. As long as that is competitive, window isn’t closing.


Long story short, not making short sighted moves for the next 1-3 years to jeopardize 4-8 years down the roads

I didn’t and don’t believe the prima-Donna has a long window. He will walk away from the game before 40