2021 NFL Draft Discussion

[Pckfn23]

Ok, so think about this: 13 of the past 16 "first picks" takes us back to 2005

So it starts with Rodgers.

So 2 QBs were taken--Rodgers and Love
2 OTs were taken--Bulaga and Sherrod
3 EDGEs were taken--Datone Jones, Nick Perry, and Rashaan Gary
3 DTs were taken--Justin Harrell, BJ Raji, and Kenny Clark
3 CBs were taken--Randall, Alexander, King

1 LB (Hawk)
1 WR (Jordy)
1 S (HaHa)

So you're telling me that taking 2 OTs in the past 16 years is significantly different from taking 1 WR? That taking 2 QBs makes them a more common first-round selection than the 1 safety?

Taking 16 picks that break down by position into 3, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1 does not indicate ANY pattern. If you want to group defensive front 7 and say there have been 6 of those, then you can point to that and say TT and Gutey like to build in the trenches. But considering that you have 3 DBs, plus the second-pick commitment at that position, that would be rather erroneous, as well.

Grouping 13 of these 16 picks into some 5-poisiton "likely pick" scenario is statistically irrelevant.

Those were my thoughts as well. Add into it, that only the RAS picks "trend" had to do with Gutenkunst only. The age thing is 2 Thompson and 4 Gutenkunst, but weird as 21 is the most common age for first round draftees. The position "trend" is almost entirely Thompson.

[YoHoChecko]

Clay Mathews 111

Clay Matthews was not a "first pick" which is the weird bar Andy Herman used for this. Even though two of our first picks came in the second round (Jordy and King) and two of our second picks came in the first round (Clay and Savage).

Herman is noting the positions of the first picks we made in each draft. So Matthews went after BJ Raji that year. He is not a first pick.

If you made it first ROUND picks, then you gotta subtract the WR and a CB and add in a second safety and a 4th EDGE

In which case you could say that 4 of our past 16 1st round picks came at EDGE and 2 at S and only 1 at CB. By Herman's standards, that would make us unlikely to select a CB. It's statistical nonsense, attempting to create patterns out of data sets far too small to draw conclusions, and far to malleable to make them random or objective samples.


Reading patterns that don't exist into existence is just as incorrect and foolhardy as it is to ignore or miss on patterns that do exist. It leads to media heads honing in on narratives or guidelines or rules or preferences of a team's draft board that simply don't exist.

[paco]

Quite a few guys I was guess as Packers targets here. Going to have to rethink. We tend to go with younger players.

[BF004]

First pick is s pretty dumb metric too. Why include Jordy and King but not Darnell Savage or Clay Matthews?

[YoHoChecko]

My official wish list is to get one (or two, where specified) guys off of each list, as many lists as possible.

image.png (37.68 KiB) Viewed 592 times

The last row along the bottom are all 7th/UDFA types who are developmental position players, but would make the team for their ST right away. Some returners, some all around, core-4 types. But I gave it its own line given the need for improvement. Some CBs, WRs, RBs on that list there. And a LB.

I should also add Nate Hobbs to the CB list--maybe a big CB, 6'1" and long.

[salmar80]

well we just made Bak the highest paid LT in the league, now we may take a tackle but it wont have anything to do with Bak, other then He might miss a couple games because of the acl, but he's got 3 or 4 years left on his currant deal

another mock with us taking Jamin Davis, ILB Kentucky, a month ago he's a mid to late 2nd round prospect, 2 weeks ago he's a mid to late 30 slot guy, now he's a first round prospect and some have him ahead of Zavon Collins, he's got the range and instincts teams want from the ILB position.

I was just looking into Jamin Davis, and thought "now, there's a crush for Yoop" . About ideal size-athleticism combo for a ILB, could become that coverage-capable playmaker. But he's pretty inexperienced, would need time and development. I guess when you're picking low 1st round/high 2nd round, you ain't getting ready-made package.

A 1st round OT would have nothing to do with Bak, rather Turner being on a rather short deal and generally keeping the OL well-stocked from whomever is the QB.

[NCF]

My official wish list is to get one (or two, where specified) guys off of each list, as many lists as possible.
image.png

The last row along the bottom are all 7th/UDFA types who are developmental position players, but would make the team for their ST right away. Some returners, some all around, core-4 types. But I gave it its own line given the need for improvement. Some CBs, WRs, RBs on that list there. And a LB.

I should also add Nate Hobbs to the CB list--maybe a big CB, 6'1" and long.

I know our need at TE is relatively small, but I would like to find a way to get Tommy Tremble.

[YoHoChecko]

I know our need at TE is relatively small, but I would like to find a way to get Tommy Tremble.

Interesting. I like some TEs in this draft, too--blockers, especially. I just genuinely can't fit one on the roster.

I mean, we have four guys plus however you count Dafney.

I just don't know how or why to add a TE to the roster unless it's late enough that they spend a year on the PS with a guy like maybe a John Bates or Tony Poljan in the 6th or 7th.

So for me it's not only that TE isn't a need, it's that it's prohibitively deep on our roster unless we're ready to start cutting 3rd round picks before they develop to make room for another rookie who needs to develop.

[NCF]

So for me it's not only that TE isn't a need, it's that it's prohibitively deep on our roster unless we're ready to start cutting 3rd round picks before they develop to make room for another rookie who needs to develop.

See, I mentioned Tremble because I agree we do not need a late round flyer, but if we can get one with pedigree, than I want that. Tremble is perfect because he is an athletic freak and a monster blocker. Word is LaFleur is really high on him so we'll see, but I agree with your point on a developmental guy... we have plenty of those. Also, yes, I, personally, am ready to give up on Sternberger. I like what we have in Deguara and Dafney, but it never hurts to get a guy who can be "the guy". Also gives us some insurance if the Tonyan negotiations get out of hand next offseason. I just can't see paying him top dollar. I won't use the term limited, because I saw you take issue with that in another thread, but Tonyan is never going to be an elite blocking TE. He's a functional try-hard that is way more receiver. I like him a lot, but I don't know about breaking the bank for him.

[BSA]

Tremble looks like a candidate to become a complete TE and he was a former defensive guy so he has the mentality to block. As YoHo noted, the Packers TE room is pretty deep and its hard to justify the resources needed to secure Tremble. The Packers also have former DE Bronson Kaufusi who they are trying to convert into a blocking TE to take over from Marcedes. Kaufusi dropped 15 lbs in the offseason for the role - and he ran a 4.87 at 285 lbs coming out of BYU. Tremble is certainly a better TE candidate and more likely to succeed, but he's kind of a luxury pick for the 2021 roster with Lewis, Tonyan, Sternberger, Dafney, DeGuara, Kaufusi already in that room. GB is building Tremble in the aggregate, but it would be fantastic to get it all in one player instead of 3.

https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/br ... ition=EDGE

[YoHoChecko]

Tremble looks like a candidate to become a complete TE and he was a former defensive guy so he has the mentality to block. As YoHo noted, the Packers TE room is pretty deep and its hard to justify the resources needed to secure Tremble. The Packers also have former DE Bronson Kaufusi who they are trying to convert into a blocking TE to take over from Marcedes. Kaufusi dropped 15 lbs in the offseason for the role - and he ran a 4.87 at 285 lbs coming out of BYU. Tremble is certainly a better TE candidate and more likely to succeed, but he's kind of a luxury pick for the 2021 roster with Lewis, Tonyan, Sternberger, Dafney, DeGuara, Kaufusi already in that room. GB is building Tremble in the aggregate, but it would be fantastic to get it all in one player instead of 3.

I dunno. I don't consider a guy who's 6'3" 240 to be a "complete TE" prospect. That guy would be 6'5"+ and 250+.

Tremble doesn't seem any more likely to succeed than Deguara at this point.

I am not in favor of taking a TE in the 3rd round for a third year in a row when we go 4-deep at the position, rookies never make almost any impact at the position, and we have a Pro Bowl player at the position.

I get that after this year if Sternberger is a bust and Tonyan leaves in free agency, we're POSSIBLY looking at Deguara and Dafney as the only two guys assuming Lewis retires (he signed for 2 years, but...) but that's a 2022 problem for sure.

I don't see much room for a TE here nor do I think any of the TEs not named Kyle Pitts are worth investing the resources in drafting given our current roster composition. I'm highly interested in continuing to try to find players to develop on the PS into the blocking TE role, which we at any given time have been doing (Kafusi now, Nauta was there, some guy named Evan was there, let us not forget the Looney conversion effort).

It just doesn't make sense to force a Day Two player onto our roster at a position where young, developing Day Two picks would have to be cut to accommodate another such player.

[NCF]

I dunno. I don't consider a guy who's 6'3" 240 to be a "complete TE" prospect. That guy would be 6'5"+ and 250+.

He is one of these 20-year old prospects. I am not sure he is done growing. He was listed at 6'4" - 248 at Notre Dame. I would feel better if that were closer to reality than his Pro Day measurements.

[Yoop]

for years we've wondered who ran the show in the Patriot war room

Bill Belichick’s dog sat alone in front of three open laptops inside the coach’s kitchen on Nantucket.

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/the-nfl-dr ... 41188.html

[bobsacamano]

Anyone got a link to those Bob Mcginn draft prospect profiles? he used to do it by position.

[Pckfn23]

It's not in a great format to copy and paste. Any position or player you want in particular?

[APB]

It's not in a great format to copy and paste. Any position or player you want in particular?

[paco]

Info and opinions are flying in from all over the place. It's time to put your pencils down and walk away from your mocks and big boards. Nothing that comes out now will do you any good!

Sounds like most teams have between 12-18 guys with 1st round grades this year. Perhaps a bit lower than past years. Yet, there are about 60 guys who "won't get to 29". Going to be another fun 3 days to watch. Not sure what I'll be watching yet. Last year I spent more time on "alternative" draft shows as opposed to NFL Network or ESPN.

What will you guys be watching?

[bobsacamano]

It's not in a great format to copy and paste. Any position or player you want in particular?

It's not in a great format to copy and paste. Any position or player you want in particular?

Indeed

[BF004]

It's not in a great format to copy and paste. Any position or player you want in particular?

It's not in a great format to copy and paste. Any position or player you want in particular?

Indeed

If you could just live stream yourself on youtube going through the page, reading it aloud and have it all indexed by prospect and time when you start talking about them, that'd be great.

[Pckfn23]

It's not in a great format to copy and paste. Any position or player you want in particular?

Indeed

If you could just live stream yourself on youtube going through the page, reading it aloud and have it all indexed by prospect and time when you start talking about them, that'd be great.

Better yet, I will get a cast together to play the unknown personnel guys and scouts while I narrate as Bob McGinn! I will try to keep the contempt in my voice high.