2021 NFL Draft Discussion

[paco]

Pretty much all of the talk on the Packers is WR in round 1. Toney, Bateman, Elijah Moore. The Marshall talk has died down some. Everyone is on board with "finally" getting Rodgers some help.

[YoHoChecko]

Pretty much all of the talk on the Packers is WR in round 1. Toney, Bateman, Elijah Moore. The Marshall talk has died down some. Everyone is on board with "finally" getting Rodgers some help.

sounds like a trap, haha

Gotta say, I'm fine with that, but if Zaven Collins or Greg Newsome are on the board, I'd take them before any receiver outside of the top 3

[Pckfn23]

This draft for the Packers is tough to pin down because that first pick is tough to pin down. It could be a corner, defensive lineman, tackle, guard, center, wide receiver, or inside linebacker. I don't think that first pick will be a safety, edge, or tight end. It will definitely not be a quarterback, runningback, fullback, long snapper, punter, or kicker. Basically out of the 12 1st round worthy positions, there is a possibility, however slim, it could be any 10.

I kind of want us to trade back, pick up another 3rd and pick and grab Creed Humphreys.


I could see any of 5 wide receivers: Bateman, Toney, Marshall, E. Moore. I think Chase, Waddle, and Smith will be gone. I don't with R. Moore is on the board for the first 2 rounds.

Cornerback is definitely possible with the right guy falling. Surtain is beyond our reach. I could see any one of Farley, Samuel, Horn or Newsome falling. Those are the 5 believe are 1st pick worthy.

Safety is Moehrig or no one.

For defensive lineman it looks to be Barmore or no one. Onwuzurike is possible, as the scheme is still up in the air, but I think we would draft an edge before him and move one of P. Smith or Gary inside.

When is comes to Inside Linebacker it looks to be a 3 horse race. Parsons and Owusu-Koramoah are probably gone by 29. So it is down to Collins, Davis, and Bolton. Collins looks to be pursuing the EDGE position though, with his added weight.

I am not sure we need a first pick Edge, but the scheme is up in the air at this point. This is a hard position to pin down and there are many varied opinions. Paye, Phillips are probably gone and not worth moving up for. Ojulari and Oweh, might be there. Ossai, Rousseau I have seen first round slots for them.

For offensive line I can't see Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, or Vera-Tucker falling enough to make it worth picking them. After that I see a TON of different opinions on guys. Some guys I have seen in Round 1: Humphrey, Cosmi, Jenkins, Leatherwood, Radunz, Davis, Eichenberg, etc... Hard to pin this one down.

Tight End is Pitts only if he falls to 29.

With so little access this year, it is hard to pin down.

[Pckfn23]

Pretty much all of the talk on the Packers is WR in round 1. Toney, Bateman, Elijah Moore. The Marshall talk has died down some. Everyone is on board with "finally" getting Rodgers some help.

sounds like a trap, haha

Gotta say, I'm fine with that, but if Zaven Collins or Greg Newsome are on the board, I'd take them before any receiver outside of the top 3

I'm falling off of the Collins train since it looks like he is pursuing Edge by adding weight.

[YoHoChecko]

I'm falling off of the Collins train since it looks like he is pursuing Edge by adding weight.

He'll pursue whatever his drafted team tells him to pursue.

He has the skills to play off ball and to rush off the edge, and that is the exact combination of skills I think we want from an off-ball LB at this juncture.

Plus, the explanation of the added weight is literally that he gave himself a training and diet break after the Pro Day and picked up a little bad weight, not that he trained and dieted to put on good weight.

[Pckfn23]

I'm falling off of the Collins train since it looks like he is pursuing Edge by adding weight.

He'll pursue whatever his drafted team tells him to pursue.

He has the skills to play off ball and to rush off the edge, and that is the exact combination of skills I think we want from an off-ball LB at this juncture.

Plus, the explanation of the added weight is literally that he gave himself a training and diet break after the Pro Day and picked up a little bad weight, not that he trained and dieted to put on good weight.

That all sounds nice that he will pursue whatever the team tells him to pursue, but in reality the square peg in a round hole rarely works.

That explanation is not literally what happened. He cut weight to run a faster 40 and returned to his playing weight. If 270 is his playing weight I would be skeptical of his ability to play an off the ball linebacker and I am not sure his Edge rush ability if there. I think he could be great in that P. Smith roll we used last year. He very well might not be pursuing Edge, my bad, but that may be his best position. I like him, but not overly so.

Personally I like other players/investments at 29.

If we are talking pure off the line linebacker, I am going Jamin Davis over Zaven Collins.

[YoHoChecko]

From Tony Pauline:

Eyebrows were raised when Collins, the 13th-rated player on my 2021 NFL Draft big board, weighed 270 pounds during combine medicals. That weight was 11 pounds heavier than his pro day mark from earlier this month. So what’s the story?

It’s really not a big deal, to tell you the truth. Collins was a little shocked to tip the scales at 259 pounds during Tulsa’s Pro Day. He consistently weighed between 264 to 265 pounds during training in the lead-up to the Tulsa workout. The expectations of his training crew were that Collins would be over 260 pounds at his pro day.

After his successful pro day workout when he came in lighter than expected, it was admitted to me Collins relaxed a bit and enjoyed himself, as he should. The excessive steak-eating led to the 270 combine weigh-in, which was a surprise like the pro day mark, but in the other direction.

I’m told in recent days Collins has his weight back down under 265 pounds and has been holding steady.

[Pckfn23]

https://www.si.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft/ ... t-weigh-in

Adding 11 pounds in 2 weeks suggests he was cutting weight to get to 259. Understandable, but which is his playing weight and how will that affect his speed/burst?

[YoHoChecko]

Adding 11 pounds in 2 weeks suggests he was cutting weight to get to 259. Understandable, but which is his playing weight and how will that affect his speed/burst?

Yes, he cut 5-6 pounds to try to run faster on the pro day. Then gained 10-11 pounds when he stopped caring, and has returned to his playing weight at 265.

He's not bulking up or slimming down. He's not "pursuing time as an edge"

Also, 4.6s are a perfectly good time for an off ball LB. And yes, most of his coverage assignments would be zone. We would rarely be asking this guy to run down the field in coverage, if at all. And if we do, then running a 4.6 along with the RB or TE, who typically run similarly in the 4.5s or 4.6s is perfectly reasonable.

This guy had 5 INTs and several PDs in college. He plays in space, yes at a lower level. This is exactly the type of guy who makes an odd-front zone blitz work. The reason he is so well considered in the first place is because he is jumbo sized for an off-ball LB but has surprisingly good movement skills and feel for spacing. That's WHY he's a highly touted prospect, and now everyone is weighing him twice a month and trying to hold it against him? Wild.

Just because we're operating on limited information this year doesn't serve as a reason to blow up every single iota of information we get. A player's weight fluctuating in the offseason based on different training routines and ebbs and flows is not abnormal. I weight 4 pounds more at night than I do in the morning. You are not going to convince me that a player's 11-pound weight fluctuations should matter to his draft status.

[Pckfn23]

Just because we're operating on limited information this year doesn't serve as a reason to blow up every single iota of information we get.

A complete overreaction due to your love of the player. You are also assigning things to me or addressing things that I never mentioned or said.

That's why I hate this process some times. Some get locked into a player or players and see red if a comment about a player isn't glowing.

[YoHoChecko]

A complete overreaction due to your blind love of the player. You are also assigning things to me that or addressing things I never mentioned or said.

That's why I hate this process some times. Some get locked into a player or players...

You posted a link that openly speculated about why or how he may have gained wait. I posted a quote that at least claims to have a source explaining the situation.

You said that he was adding weight to pursue an edge role, but nothing indicates that has taken place. If anything, his weight-cutting prior to the Pro Day is more indicative of what type of training he might be pursuing to appeal to teams.

Your own link made the same points I made, in fact:
"A 270-pound off-ball linebacker does not traditionally fit into these schemes; however, Collins’ ability in coverage at his size is perhaps his most appealing trait."

"According to Vandernat, teams will keep track of the weight at which a player ran their 40. It stands to reason, then, that teams will likely see Collins’ playing weight as 259 pounds."

"All the same, Zaven Collins is an extremely talented linebacker whose large frame was a clear strength on film."

I'm not overreacting or "locked in"

I am correcting assertions you explicitly made: that this is a player who is adding weight to play edge or who has some sort of deceptive playing weight. Ask anyone on the board how vehemently you strive to correct people with evidence when they make unfounded assertions, and I think you'll find my response quite mild by comparison.

[YoHoChecko]

Did we discuss that Gutey's presser actually had a couple tiny tidbits of useful information about the coming draft?

He specifically said that players that can help more immediately will get a little boost of value on the board and that while it's dangerous to presume too much, the lack of ability to add free agents this year probably pushes the needle a little bit toward players that can help more immediately this year than other years.

A rare Packers equivocation (although slight) between BPA and Need

[YoHoChecko]

He also addressed height requirements in scouting, and said "Jaire was very very close to our mendoza line" which to me indicates the cutoff guideline is probably 5'10" not the highly-reported 5'11" that I've railed against (Jaire cleared 5'10" by 1/4 inch)

[Pckfn23]

You said that he was adding weight to pursue an edge role, but nothing indicates that has taken place. If anything, his weight-cutting prior to the Pro Day is more indicative of what type of training he might be pursuing to appeal to teams.

And I already corrected that statement before your overreaction:

He very well might not be pursuing Edge, my bad

Not sure where coverage came into this...

I think you'll find my response quite mild by comparison.

Again, I commented on your overreation to my comments of Collins adding weight after his Pro Day:

Just because we're operating on limited information this year doesn't serve as a reason to blow up every single iota of information we get.

The severity of your response, I did not comment on. More assigning statements to me, that I did not make.


Again, so invested in this one player that anything but a glowing review is seen as being down on a player

My original statement about adding weight to pursue Edge was wrong, I admitted that. However, that he added weight up to 270 is something to keep tabs on. That he ran 4.66 at 259 is fine, but if he is running 4.7s at 270 or 265, that may limit his sideline to sideline effectiveness in the run game. That is something that was a question mark even before Pro Days.

If he is a 265 pound ILB with no issues, why isn't he a top 5 prospect?

I would love him in a Preston Smith role. As a pure ILB, I love others more.

[paco]

image.png (814.41 KiB) Viewed 400 times

[YoHoChecko]

This is awesome!

I'll focus on Rich Hill chart a bit more moving forward, and also look for teams who use similar valuation as they seem most likely to agree on an equitable deal

(though I would like clarification on how they valued future picks to make this analysis)

[paco]

This is awesome!

I'll focus on Rich Hill chart a bit more moving forward, and also look for teams who use similar valuation as they seem most likely to agree on an equitable deal

(though I would like clarification on how they valued future picks to make this analysis)

Yeah, that wasn't clear. Saw some ask but it hasn't been answered.

[YoHoChecko]

One thing is clear: teams don't use the two "analytics" charts. The highest usage is 80%, while 20 of the 32 teams adhere to Jimmy Johnson at least 80% of the time.

The Rich Hill and Jimmy Johnson trades are highly correlated and much more useful.

[paco]

[NCF]

Interesting.