Jordan Love 2023 Expectation/Player Comparison

[Yoop]

It doesn't matter what their ceiling is, it matters how they are playing this year.

course it matters what there ceiling is, or they'll end up being MVS, Lazard, Kumerow etc. the reason ya use a 2nd or 3rd on players is they tend to have a higher ceiling, this is like talking to a 10 year old

this whole thread is is a page longer because you and Labrev just want to twist any thing I say, I'am done.

[Pckfn23]

It doesn't matter what their ceiling is, it matters how they are playing this year.

course it matters what there ceiling is, or they'll end up being MVS, Lazard, Kumerow etc. the reason ya use a 2nd or 3rd on players is they tend to have a higher ceiling, this is like talking to a 10 year old

this whole thread is is a page longer because you and Labrev just want to twist any thing I say, I'am done.

Not when talking about the success of 2023 it sure doesn't. One can not say this offense is so great and then not see that the receivers are similar in quality right now to last year or other years prior.

No one twists what you say. You continually change what you say to fit the current situation. You are the epitome of a transactional arguer.

[Labrev]

"Twisting" like saying that you explicitly said you expect two 1k receivers and so should everyone, only for you now to claim that what you really meant was four 600 yard receivers. I'm not twisting &%$@, you are backtracking.

The thread is a page longer because you talked smack about how much smarter you are than the people who don't agree with you on your pet topic, saying they are incapable of understanding like a black board eraser or now a 10 year old.

You poked my inbox to whine about how you dont like sarcadtic remarks I make even when it was not directed at you, to which I didn't reply but thought "ok, I'll tone it down a little" ... then you go making veiled insults.

I wouldn't have bothered engaging if not for that. And [mention]YoHoChecko[/mention] can whine about it as he always does.

[dsr]

Is there any chance of this thread moving forward, or is this a permanent loop? I don't think there are any prizes for "winning" an argument.

[go pak go]

Is there any chance of this thread moving forward, or is this a permanent loop? I don't think there are any prizes for "winning" an argument.

I have always considered the next thread to this as this was a Spring thread of serious question marks. I think I am going to bring back the "Freaking" thread like I did for Rodgers in 2020. Love deserves it.

[Yoop]

"Twisting" like saying that you explicitly said you expect two 1k receivers and so should everyone, only for you now to claim that what you really meant was four 600 yard receivers. I'm not twisting &%$@, you are backtracking.

The thread is a page longer because you talked smack about how much smarter you are than the people who don't agree with you on your pet topic, saying they are incapable of understanding like a black board eraser or now a 10 year old.

You poked my inbox to whine about how you dont like sarcadtic remarks I make even when it was not directed at you, to which I didn't reply but thought "ok, I'll tone it down a little" ... then you go making veiled insults.

I wouldn't have bothered engaging if not for that. And @YoHoChecko can whine about it as he always does.

the problem is every single thing I say has to be spelled out to perfection with you, such as why would you think a 1k receiver or a 900 yrd receiver would hold more value then a 7 or 600 yrd receiver? you just don't get it, simple, because a DC has to use more resources to cover them, the more receivers you have that require double or over the top coverage makes it easier for others to find empty zones.
thing is nothing held guys like MVS, or Lazard back, or Allison, or any of the rest of these 3 and 4 tier receivers, to date none has eclipsed anything they did here, which was #3 or 4 tier, but then you know all this stuff, yet drag out every argument defending these jags, why not look around the league, the potent offenses have more then one feature type receiver, thats just not some luxury, it's more normal then you think, and our GM finally realized that.

[Papa John]

My ideal for the WR room is and has always been a diversity of skills, each player's skill-set complementing the others', and I could care less if any are proven all-pro or pro-bowl players, which is why I never had the same angst over the 2018-2021 groups that some here did.

Our current guys have more raw talent than the 2018-2022 groups, but they lack a true star #1 WR like an Adams. None of them is a week-in, week-out "workhorse" (if you will) WR1.

Yet it still works more than fine, because they all bring something valuable to the table. There is nothing you lack at WR between the collective: speed, size, releases, etc. Somebody in the group can give you whatever you need at the position. It's 2011 Lite.

Interesting concept about the diversity of skills. A few years back, there was talk of the Packers potentially acquiring Deondre Hopkins. I was always curious to see how an Adams/Hopkins pairing would have worked out. Both had similar skill sets and measurables, if I am remembering correctly. I am sure that they would have been a force to be reckoned with. But my point is that most of the great WR corps that I can remember did seem to have that diversity that you are referring to. I can't think of hardly any that featured exclusively possession WR's, for instance. Maybe Fitzgerald and Boldin with Arizona?

[YoHoChecko]

Before the season, I took the central thesis of this thread literally and lade a whole big list of which QBs I thought it was fair to measure Jordan Love against this season. This included past performances or 2023 performances playing out alongside Jordan. I wrote a big ole' post explaining my thoughts, which I've quoted below. I also added second-year Josh Allen because about midway through the season, I stumbled upon the realization that love's numbers looked VERY similar to Allen's full-year stats from the year before his breakout. I didn;'t realize Love would finish the season by breaking out in the same season, but anyway..

Now, with the season over, we have the necessary data to compare.

So here's a picture of a table showing the results. If a stat is shaded in red, the player was worse than Love in that category. If a stat is shaded in green, it means the player was better than Love in that category.

There's a loootttt of red, y'all

image.png (77.21 KiB) Viewed 804 times

So I've been thinking about the bars of comparison for Love.

He is not a rookie. But he is a first time starter. His 3 years on the bench developing matter (immensely) especially because that was the scouting report on him coming out: great arm talent, bad habits, needs a lot of work on fundamentals tied to accuracy and decision making. For him, taking time was part of the equation, like it should be for a guy like Levis or Richardson.

But he's also not a guy making a 2nd/3rd-year jump after getting a sense for the nuances of the game, like Josh Allen did after playing relatively mediocre football for his rookie and sophomore year. And he's not banging down the door with his play so hard you trade the starter after one year like Mahomes was.

So in the vein of the thread: expectations and comparison

Here are guys whose play I think we can compare to Love's this year and hope to see him toward the top of this spectrum rather than the middle or bottom...

1. Justin Fields. March 5, 1999 (24 y.o.)

This one is just too obvious. We have to compare. Love is in his 4th season, while Fields is in his 3rd. Fields has started for two years while Love has started none. I remember thinking at one point that Jordan Love in an extremely small sample was producing at a similar level as Fields was in a large sample (not play style necessarily, but production).
image.png

So if we just start with the premise that Love needed an extra year of development and then put them on the same, albeit differently-constructed developmental path, they should be compared this year. And of course, Packers-Bears.

2. Kyle Trask. March 6, 1998 (25 y.o.)

Don't laugh. I truly hope and genuinely think Love is the better player. But Trask was drafted in the 2nd round and has sat for 2 years learning behind Tom Brady. We have VERY few examples of guys drafted relatively early and sitting behind HoFers for multiple years to start their careers. So we're going to compare.

Naturally, Trask was drafted 64th 2 years ago and Love was drafted 26th 3 years ago. But Trask's best college season was better than Love's best college season, statistically.
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So if we're going to take the whole "developed under a HoF player" narrative seriously, we should also look and see what happens in Tampa. Of course, Trask might not even beat out Baker Mayfield

3. Kenny Pickett. June 6, 1998 (25 y.o.)

Pickett was drafted last year in the first round, ahead of where Love was drafted. It was a weak QB class but theoretically, Pickett should be about as good or slightly better than Love coming into the league. Pickett's path to playing time was much more conventional, though. Last year was his rookie year (even though he is 4 months older than Love). He started out behind a veteran starter, but came into game action in week 4. He played as the starter the rest of the season absent concussions.

Pickett will now be in his first year entering the season as the fulltime starter, just like Love. They're close in age, close in draft stock, and both have a variety of young weapons (though some more proven in Pittsburgh).

4. Desmond Ridder August 31, 1999 (24 y.o. in two weeks)

Sort of between Trask and Pickett here... Less time in the league (2nd year). More time as a starter (4 weeks). He's entering the season as the expected starter and was not given significant competition (though Heineke is a fan favorite wherever he goes). Ridder, like Love, was viewed as a first round pick earlier in his career, but never took that next step into stardom and settled into the mid-second round.

The Falcons have an established offensive system and have been stocking up on young weapons while trying to revamp the OL. Ridder is another person on this list I would hope that love is not compared to once the live action starts, but he's another unproven young QB entering his first year as an unquestioned starter who was drafted relatively high.

5. This Year's Ready Rookies

Up until now I have been trying to find guys who similarly are not rookies but have not had significant starting experience. But in this draft class, where Bryce Young and CJ Stroud were drafted in the top 2 overall in large part because they are considered READY and the full package, I will be watching how they perform this year in their first years as well. Unfortunately for these guy, they are both playing for teams that don't really seem to have offensive lines, which is classic rookie QB killer. But c'est la vie.

Worth noting that both of these guys will play the bulk of their seasons aged 22 (Stroud turns 22 in October). Love will be 24/25 this season, so unlike some of the guys drafted after him who were a little older than him and thus are similar in age right now as we compare, these two are young draftees like Love was.


6. His Own Draft Class, pre-breakout

I'm bending the rules here because there are no rules and/or I made them up anyway. But I want to look at a couple guys--namely Tua and Hurts--in their second years. This is a way to say "ok, who were his draft class peers. And what did they look like when they were neither rookies nor veterans?" One year of experience from seasons in which neither began as starters but entered year 2 as the expected and relied-upon starters was my compromise. So let's look at how those two did.

image.png

7. Aspirational - Young First-Year Starters

I obviously cherry-picked the 2020 QB class, leaving out Burrow and Herbert at the top. And guys who waited before starting, leaving out Mahomes at the tippity top. AND OF COURSE... 2008 Aaron Rodgers. That could be its own number, but, umm, I think we can count him here

So let's just look at what happens when players surprise and break the mold.

image.png

So there-in lies the full spectrum of comparisons I will be watching for this year.

From current seasons as they play out: Fields, Trask, Pickett, Ridder, Young, and Stroud
To past seasons as they played out: Tua, Hurts, Burrow, Herbert, and Mahomes.

Like I said, my hope is that Love is closer to the top of that spectrum than to the bottom.

[Scott4Pack]

MVP.

Nuf sed.

:-)

[YoHoChecko]

TLDR: of all the guys I thought were fair to aspirational measuring sticks for Love's season as of this pre-season, Love landed about even with Justin Herbert's rookie year and CJ Stroud's rookie year, behind Mahomes' sophomore year, and better than everyone else--including both first-year-starter Aaron Rodgers and last-year-on-the-same-basic-team Aaron Rodgers.

[Pckfn23]

Put quotes around dropped and yep!

[APB]

Can you imagine Rodgers still being on the team this year and how he would have handled all the bone-headed mistakes by the youngin’s? Can you imagine the body language and scowls? I’m convinced this season would have been a disaster, especially considering Rodgers penchant for NOT throwing to receivers he didn’t trust.

I give Jordan Love SO MUCH CREDIT for leading this offense through their collective growing pains and coming out the other side a legitimate offensive juggernaut!

[Labrev]

Okay, well I was going to wait until later in the week to say it, but in light of the above posts, I kinda have to do it now....

We were right. Those of us who said Love would be an improvement in QB play over Rodgers and/or we are a playoff team last year with Love... the jury is in, verdict: we were right. Case CLOSEDt.

Remember people going like "Oh yeah! We were right! Rodgers vindicated!" after that Viking loss?

Are we all fans of the same team at the end of the day, and our team success is shared success? Why yes, of course.

But all celebration of our present success is an admission of our superiority over our doubters, and of their total defeat. And all our past and future takes shall be uncritically accepted as gospel by everyone. And even if anyone refuses, it's confirmed by Science, so you are just wrong.

[Foosball]

In the beginning there was Brett Favre.

Aaron Rodgers sat for 3 years behind Favre.

Jordan Love sat for 3 years behind Rodgers.

This is the way.

[musclestang]

Can you imagine Rodgers still being on the team this year and how he would have handled all the bone-headed mistakes by the youngin’s? Can you imagine the body language and scowls? I’m convinced this season would have been a disaster, especially considering Rodgers penchant for NOT throwing to receivers he didn’t trust.

I give Jordan Love SO MUCH CREDIT for leading this offense through their collective growing pains and coming out the other side a legitimate offensive juggernaut!

I think a lot of people are wrong on this though. He wasn't down on everyone for making mistakes. Lazard made them all the time. So did a young Adams. So did Jones. So did Jordy, So did geronimo. And Doubs last year. Was always coaching them. All those guys. They would drop passes and he'd go right back to them. Heck, some of his biggest plays to Cobb were wrong routes, some to even beat the Bears to go on to do great things. Remember?

what he didn't tolerate was the garbage from certain guys that didn't try and didn't play well, guys that don't really play anywhere since here. Do we think Love brings a TE playing OT and Deguara to the playoffs? Do we really think Rodgers couldn't have or wouldn't have made use of the 2 best TE prospects we've had in GB in a decade? Jayden Reed vs Amari Rodgers, talk about a juxtaposition lol

and we saw receivers running to the wrong places and a QB that didn't trust them earlier in the year, how did that look? That team wasn't taking us to the playoffs.

But they did get it together, because they kept working. That is something they couldn't quite get done last year. But the quality in these 2 teams is very different if you ask me. Toure was practically a starter most weeks last year. This year he can't even find the active roster because of the guys we brought in. Situations were very different from last year to this.

ANyway, I don't need to tear down Rodgers to build up Love. I'm impressed with the Kid to say the least. They've come a long way, still have things to work on, but they fought thru stuff that makes lesser players quit and keep finding ways to improve. Great ability and great attitudes, call me a fan

[Yoop]

Can you imagine Rodgers still being on the team this year and how he would have handled all the bone-headed mistakes by the youngin’s? Can you imagine the body language and scowls? I’m convinced this season would have been a disaster, especially considering Rodgers penchant for NOT throwing to receivers he didn’t trust.

I give Jordan Love SO MUCH CREDIT for leading this offense through their collective growing pains and coming out the other side a legitimate offensive juggernaut!

we'd have won the division this season with Rodgers, you and others just wont accept how bad the situation for most of the season last year, hell minus Barry finally allowing our players to play up to there ability and we wouldn't be in the PO's this year.

Love may end up better then Rodgers, who knows, but the start of this season was just as bad as last year when it comes to supporting cast and never became as good as the supporting cast this season.

[Yoop]

Can you imagine Rodgers still being on the team this year and how he would have handled all the bone-headed mistakes by the youngin’s? Can you imagine the body language and scowls? I’m convinced this season would have been a disaster, especially considering Rodgers penchant for NOT throwing to receivers he didn’t trust.

I give Jordan Love SO MUCH CREDIT for leading this offense through their collective growing pains and coming out the other side a legitimate offensive juggernaut!

I think a lot of people are wrong on this though. He wasn't down on everyone for making mistakes. Lazard made them all the time. So did a young Adams. So did Jones. So did Jordy, So did geronimo. And Doubs last year. Was always coaching them. All those guys. They would drop passes and he'd go right back to them. Heck, some of his biggest plays to Cobb were wrong routes, some to even beat the Bears to go on to do great things. Remember?

what he didn't tolerate was the garbage from certain guys that didn't try and didn't play well, guys that don't really play anywhere since here. Do we think Love brings a TE playing OT and Deguara to the playoffs? Do we really think Rodgers couldn't have or wouldn't have made use of the 2 best TE prospects we've had in GB in a decade? Jayden Reed vs Amari Rodgers, talk about a juxtaposition lol

and we saw receivers running to the wrong places and a QB that didn't trust them earlier in the year, how did that look? That team wasn't taking us to the playoffs.

But they did get it together, because they kept working. That is something they couldn't quite get done last year. But the quality in these 2 teams is very different if you ask me. Toure was practically a starter most weeks last year. This year he can't even find the active roster because of the guys we brought in. Situations were very different from last year to this.

ANyway, I don't need to tear down Rodgers to build up Love. I'm impressed with the Kid to say the least. They've come a long way, still have things to work on, but they fought thru stuff that makes lesser players quit and keep finding ways to improve. Great ability and great attitudes, call me a fan

well said MS, Rodgers got the blame for everything that could possibly go wrong the last bunch of years.

[go pak go]

Can you imagine Rodgers still being on the team this year and how he would have handled all the bone-headed mistakes by the youngin’s? Can you imagine the body language and scowls? I’m convinced this season would have been a disaster, especially considering Rodgers penchant for NOT throwing to receivers he didn’t trust.

I give Jordan Love SO MUCH CREDIT for leading this offense through their collective growing pains and coming out the other side a legitimate offensive juggernaut!

I think a lot of people are wrong on this though. He wasn't down on everyone for making mistakes. Lazard made them all the time. So did a young Adams. So did Jones. So did Jordy, So did geronimo. And Doubs last year. Was always coaching them. All those guys. They would drop passes and he'd go right back to them. Heck, some of his biggest plays to Cobb were wrong routes, some to even beat the Bears to go on to do great things. Remember?

what he didn't tolerate was the garbage from certain guys that didn't try and didn't play well, guys that don't really play anywhere since here. Do we think Love brings a TE playing OT and Deguara to the playoffs? Do we really think Rodgers couldn't have or wouldn't have made use of the 2 best TE prospects we've had in GB in a decade? Jayden Reed vs Amari Rodgers, talk about a juxtaposition lol

and we saw receivers running to the wrong places and a QB that didn't trust them earlier in the year, how did that look? That team wasn't taking us to the playoffs.

But they did get it together, because they kept working. That is something they couldn't quite get done last year. But the quality in these 2 teams is very different if you ask me. Toure was practically a starter most weeks last year. This year he can't even find the active roster because of the guys we brought in. Situations were very different from last year to this.

ANyway, I don't need to tear down Rodgers to build up Love. I'm impressed with the Kid to say the least. They've come a long way, still have things to work on, but they fought thru stuff that makes lesser players quit and keep finding ways to improve. Great ability and great attitudes, call me a fan

I think it is safe to say the undeniable fact is Love is more willing and has a better probability of learning and growing with this new group because they are his guys whereas Rodgers would have a harder time simply due to life stage between the two quarterbacks.

That's not a tear down of Rodgers but instead an observed fact between the two. It's just a different dynamic between the life stage of both QBs. And I think that's why the locker room looks to have more fund and bonding together better.

[Acrobat]

Can you imagine Rodgers still being on the team this year and how he would have handled all the bone-headed mistakes by the youngin’s? Can you imagine the body language and scowls? I’m convinced this season would have been a disaster, especially considering Rodgers penchant for NOT throwing to receivers he didn’t trust.

I give Jordan Love SO MUCH CREDIT for leading this offense through their collective growing pains and coming out the other side a legitimate offensive juggernaut!

I think a lot of people are wrong on this though. He wasn't down on everyone for making mistakes. Lazard made them all the time. So did a young Adams. So did Jones. So did Jordy, So did geronimo. And Doubs last year. Was always coaching them. All those guys. They would drop passes and he'd go right back to them. Heck, some of his biggest plays to Cobb were wrong routes, some to even beat the Bears to go on to do great things. Remember?

what he didn't tolerate was the garbage from certain guys that didn't try and didn't play well, guys that don't really play anywhere since here. Do we think Love brings a TE playing OT and Deguara to the playoffs? Do we really think Rodgers couldn't have or wouldn't have made use of the 2 best TE prospects we've had in GB in a decade? Jayden Reed vs Amari Rodgers, talk about a juxtaposition lol

and we saw receivers running to the wrong places and a QB that didn't trust them earlier in the year, how did that look? That team wasn't taking us to the playoffs.

But they did get it together, because they kept working. That is something they couldn't quite get done last year. But the quality in these 2 teams is very different if you ask me. Toure was practically a starter most weeks last year. This year he can't even find the active roster because of the guys we brought in. Situations were very different from last year to this.

ANyway, I don't need to tear down Rodgers to build up Love. I'm impressed with the Kid to say the least. They've come a long way, still have things to work on, but they fought thru stuff that makes lesser players quit and keep finding ways to improve. Great ability and great attitudes, call me a fan

well said MS, Rodgers got the blame for everything that could possibly go wrong the last bunch of years.

No he didn't.

[Papa John]

Can you imagine Rodgers still being on the team this year and how he would have handled all the bone-headed mistakes by the youngin’s? Can you imagine the body language and scowls? I’m convinced this season would have been a disaster, especially considering Rodgers penchant for NOT throwing to receivers he didn’t trust.

I give Jordan Love SO MUCH CREDIT for leading this offense through their collective growing pains and coming out the other side a legitimate offensive juggernaut!

we'd have won the division this season with Rodgers, you and others just wont accept how bad the situation for most of the season last year, hell minus Barry finally allowing our players to play up to there ability and we wouldn't be in the PO's this year.

Love may end up better then Rodgers, who knows, but the start of this season was just as bad as last year when it comes to supporting cast and never became as good as the supporting cast this season.

I really could have seen either of these scenarios happening if AR were the QB.